Fold Equity - Hand

PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
$0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players

BB: $5.83
UTG: $7.55
UTG+1: $4.63
MP: $2.89
MP+1: $4.57
MP+2: $5.53
CO: $4.78
Hero (BTN): $9.04
SB: $6.18

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05, MP+2 posts penalty blind $0.07

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.14) Hero has :TS::QS:

UTG calls $0.05, fold, MP calls $0.05, fold, MP+2 checks, CO raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.70, fold, BB calls $0.65, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $0.55

Flop: ($2.29, 3 players) :9S::7H::2C:
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $1.46,

I'm currently studying Fold Equity on CORE and want to check that my understanding of the Math is correct.
Breakeven % Calculation:
Risk / (Risk + Reward)
1.46 / (1.46+2.29) = 39%
According to my HUD stat on villain (albeit over a small sample size of 80 hands) his FCB is 50%

So I consider this bluff / semi bluff profitable as my fold equity is 50% and my BE% is 39.
Correct?


Comments

  • AkashicAkashic Red Chipper Posts: 103 ✭✭
    edited June 2020
    39% is correct. While we are playing, we can also realize that we are betting roughly 2/3 pot for which, BE = 40% . This should be memorized.

    Why did you choose to 3-bet QTs?
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    Akashic wrote: »
    Why did you choose to 3-bet QTs?

    Isolation raise against a villain who appeared to be laggy.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,492 ✭✭✭✭✭
    And why so much ?
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    And why so much ?
    Plan was to actually raise 4x villain's bet, not almost 5x....
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,928 -
    Do we not have two opponents? Thus we need to know the FCB of both and calculate the conditional probability that both fold?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Do we not have two opponents? Thus we need to know the FCB of both and calculate the conditional probability that both fold?
    We have 2 opponents. Assumed on this flop type that there was a better chance both would fold.
    How would i calculate the "conditional probability" that both will fold?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,928 -
    Multiply together the individual probabilities.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,492 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 2020
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    And why so much ?
    Plan was to actually raise 4x villain's bet, not almost 5x....

    You didn't answer. Why would you bet so big ? Wouldn't a 3-3.5x realize the same aim?

    Edit: your bet sizing also impacts your range, but this is another discussion.
  • PajoryanPajoryan Red Chipper Posts: 64 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Pajoryan wrote: »
    Red wrote: »
    And why so much ?
    Plan was to actually raise 4x villain's bet, not almost 5x....

    You didn't answer. Why would you bet so big ? Wouldn't a 3-3.5x realize the same aim?

    Fair point. Bet sizing is something that i'm still working on.

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