Facing bets with top pair of tens

MikeavidaMikeavida Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
5 handed 10NL at Global.

Main villain is new to the table and I have played about 10 hands with him. I have seen him steal raise from the button and cutoff a few times and then he has c bet and gotten folds on the flop. The rest of the hands he has folded preflop. So maybe 7 folds and 3 steal raises total.

Hero HJ 17.2
Villain Button 9.12
BB 14

Hero raises to .3 with :Ad:Td
CO folds
Bu 3 bets to .9
SB folds
BB calls
Hero calls

Pot is 2.75
Flop is:

:5s:Th:3d

SB checks
Hero checks
Villain bets 2.16
SB folds
Hero Calls

Turn is :4s

Hero checks
Villain bets 3.54
Hero folds

I am not sure what to think of my play here. I folded because I thought I was against an overpair a lot of the time. I am not sure what a 3 betting range against a relative unknown but appears to be decent (for this level) player is. The flop and turn play seems too agressive / too large of bets to be AK or an underpair enough of the time.

Also, when trying to analyze this on my own. I have about 44% equity against JJ+, AKs, Ako on the Turn. But is that even relevant information? How does one use that information to make a decision?

Thanks all!

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,669 -
    Mikeavida wrote: »
    Also, when trying to analyze this on my own. I have about 44% equity against JJ+, AKs, Ako on the Turn. But is that even relevant information? How does one use that information to make a decision?

    Let's start with this because I think it's an important question. First, your 3-bet range looks sensible and I'd expect V to bet pretty much range on the flop. That said, it's a pretty big c-bet.

    Facing the barrel on the turn, I think you're answering your own question. There are some players who will barrel AK here, but combined with sizing and it being 10NL, this is starting to not look like AK. So if you want to calculate your equity against this action, it's likely against JJ+. And I don't need to plug that into Equilab to know you're not getting the right price.

    However, this touches on a broader point. In CORE we emphasize range vs range analysis because it's the correct way to think about NLHE. However, at the lower stakes, your opponents are thinking more about their two hole cards than their range, and this is reflected in the lines they take.
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  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 114 ✭✭
    On the turn he's giving you 3 to 1 to call. Based on the range you gave him which I think makes sense against an unknown opponent you have the equity to call. But the other question is whether he would play AK this way. I've seen a lot of players at 10 nl do just that because they don't know how to play it. But if you remove it from his range based on his turn action which is what you did then your equity drops way down to about 10% and you no longer have the odds to call.

    This is a tough spot. I tend to play tight against unknowns but I could see arguments for some different lines like 4 bet semi bluff preflop and shutting down if you don't get good equity on the flop. I think it's fine to let this one go and then if you continue to see v play this way you have a better sense of how to play against him.

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,669 -
    Can we fold to the 3-bet pre? Against a 10NL 3-bet range we seem to now have an implied odds hand OOP with SPR < 5.
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  • MikeavidaMikeavida Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Can we fold to the 3-bet pre? Against a 10NL 3-bet range we seem to now have an implied odds hand OOP with SPR < 5.
    ulysses27 wrote: »
    But if you remove it from his range based on his turn action which is what you did then your equity drops way down to about 10%

    Thanks for the replies. Looks like you guys think the range I put him on makes sense, and that the turn bet makes AK drop out of the range. I hadn't considered folding pre, but that does seem like it might be correct if the range is indeed that tight. The SPR was 3, and against the range that 3 bets at 10NL, you're right, we end up with an implied odds hand in a low SPR pot.

    So let me ask you this. If you know for sure that his range on the flop is JJ+ and AK and he bets all of that 100%, how do you evaluate if the call is correct? You have 46% equity against that range on the flop.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,669 -
    It's tricky in detail, but I think I can illustrate the principle with a couple more assumptions.

    Let's say we're 100% confident that is V's range. Let us also suppose that if we call flop and check a blank turn, V will bet JJ+ and check back AK. And finally suppose with this line of action that we win the pot with no further money going in on a blank river (like it goes bet-fold).

    Ignoring any additional rake triggered by the flop action, the final pot will be 2.16+2.16+2.75 = 7.07. A flop call contributes a fraction 0.31 of that pot. We win the pot 0.46 of the time. Thus we can call the flop for this line.

    If the assumptions are correct, this is the most common line. There are turn and river cards that might change the action that you'd need to evaluate in a similar way, but since in some instances we will improve and in others V will improve, they likely don't make a huge difference. But you should check.
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  • MikeavidaMikeavida Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    A flop call contributes a fraction 0.31 of that pot. We win the pot 0.46 of the time. Thus we can call the flop for this line.

    Thanks! After you explained the assumptions, this is very clear!

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