Difficult decisions with QQ

ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 130 ✭✭
So I kind of messed up this hand in a couple ways. So I'm looking for better lines that I could've taken.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
UTG ($14.36) [VPIP: 29.6% | PFR: 14% | AGG: 11.5% | Flop Agg: 6.8% | Turn Agg: 18.8% | River Agg: 10% | 3-Bet: 2.7% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 180]

HERO ($10.85)


Dealt to Hero: Q:spade: Q:heart:

UTG Raises To $0.55, EP Folds, HERO Raises To $1, MP2 Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $0.45

So I messed up the three bet here. I meant to raise bigger but was playing several tables and missed clicked. I was intending to raise to about 15bb. I was a little confused about the size of V bet. 5.5bb is pretty big for online and usually indicates not a good player as they try to raise their big hands so that they get the most for them. I hadn't played enough with V to know if this was the case. He has a PFR of 23% from EP so I'm thinking bigger pairs and suited broadways and aces.

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.58 effective]
Flop ($2.15): 7:diamond: T:diamond: 4:club:
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $1.02 (Rem. Stack: $8.83), UTG Calls $1.02 (Rem. Stack: $12.34)

A cbet seemed to make sense as I'm only behind sets and AA, KK. He calls 3 bets 25% of the time so there is a lot of his range I'm ahead of.

Turn ($4.19): 7:diamond: T:diamond: 4:club: 9:spade:
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $1.98 (Rem. Stack: $6.85), UTG Calls $1.98 (Rem. Stack: $10.36)

I thought that if he was crushing me this is where I'd here about it. But he just calls.


River ($8.15): 7:diamond: T:diamond: 4:club: 9:spade: 2:club:
UTG Bets $7.70 (Rem. Stack: $2.66), HERO Calls $6.85 (allin)

The shove through me off. He's saying he's got a monster. The only hands that I'm beating are AK, JJ and A10. No flushes got there but QJ did but I have the blocker for that hand. Looking back I think I should've folded because I don't think based on his numbers that this is someone who is going to bluff the river after I've shown such strength. It's just that his initial bet and line confused me and made me think he might be shoving wider then he was.

UTG shows: T:club: 9:club:

UTG wins: $20.64

Comments

  • KeyserS023KeyserS023 Red Chipper Posts: 30 ✭✭
    One note when you're looking at PFR stats with low sample sizes: you've observed an EP PFR of 23% but an overall PFR of 14%. So I would tend to guess Villain's usual PFR from EP might be perhaps 10% and they've just been getting cards in EP when you've observed them. But then they show up with a hand that is not top 10%, so what do I know?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,838 -
    I think if I was trying to deal with this in real time, these are the salient features that I'd use on the end.

    The 5.5x screams weak recreational. What do we know about such players? They underbluff. Against someone less likely to be bad, you'd need to range in busted FDs. But IMO this isn't that villain.

    So my gorilla-poker approach to the situation is:

    "Big bet. Me fold."
    Moderation In Moderation
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 130 ✭✭
    KeyserS023 wrote: »
    One note when you're looking at PFR stats with low sample sizes: you've observed an EP PFR of 23% but an overall PFR of 14%. So I would tend to guess Villain's usual PFR from EP might be perhaps 10% and they've just been getting cards in EP when you've observed them. But then they show up with a hand that is not top 10%, so what do I know?

    That's a really good point about his PFR. I think if I had more hands with this person I would have been able to range him better. I think with v showing up with a less then 10% hand just shows he's a rec and plays hands that he likes. I should've taken that into more account on the turn and river.
  • AHallai_3AHallai_3 Red Chipper Posts: 44 ✭✭
    I just wanted to point out that saying he calls “25% of 3bets” with a sample size below 200 is tough. Less than 200 hands I’m sure any data for what they do against 3bets is unreliable. Also need to consider the PF raisers position. UTG will have a much tighter 3bet calling range than MP. And MP will be tighter than a BTN 3bet calling range.

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