SB vs BB, cooler or misplay?

sundriedsundried Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
edited July 8 in Online Poker Hands
25NL 6max, no info on anyone as this is Ignition and I just joined the table. Folds to me in SB with :9d:7h. I open to 0.75 and BB defends.

Flop ($1.5): :Tc:9c:9s

I bet $1.13, BB calls. Plenty of value to gain from all the draws and any T.

Turn ($3.75): :5s

I bet $3.75, BB raises to $11.85. I just ship it all in. BB has :Qc:9h. River is irrelevant in this case. I get stacked for 25.75.

My thought process is of course that there are an insane amount of draws out there from the turn that he could be doing that raise with any straight draw/flush draw. However, villain should definitely slow down due to the paired board. And as this is a paired board where raises will much more likely be from boats or trips, could I have found an exploit fold? There is almost never a worse 9 here. I feel like the overfold vs raises on the turn principle here is quite valid as you don't get raised often enough by draws in these stakes especially as villain is IP. On a dry board I would have just called the raise or been much more inclined to fold. Additionally, GTO+ recommends me to just make the call here which makes it all the more confusing to me.
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Comments

  • RandonRiversRandonRivers BlackburnRed Chipper Posts: 17 ✭✭
    I play much lower stakes than you so you probably know better then me.
    97o is probably too wide for me to be opening in the SB unless the BB is a NIT or folds far too often to steals.
    Post flop however there is only one 9 left in the deck and he would likely 3bet TT pre flop. I still think he has some semi bluff combos in his range like 87s etc but he also turns a FH with 55. I’m guessing your stakes are a lot more aggressive than mine. What player type was he and what range of hands would you say at your stakes could be on his range?
  • sundriedsundried Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
    97o is just at the bottom of a standard open for the SB. 25NL is just as fishy as any other stake level. There was no info on what kind of player he was as it's Ignition.
  • BFSkinnerBFSkinner Red Chipper Posts: 118 ✭✭
    You bet 75% pot on flop and 100% pot on the turn. You get a pot-sized raise after showing massive strength. You are basically hoping for V to have 69s.

    GTO+ tells you to call because it assumes that V has bluffs in their range. After you show this much strength, a majority of players at your stake have zero bluffs in their range.

    This is a cooler, but you could have made it much cheaper for yourself.
  • sundriedsundried Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
    BFSkinner wrote: »
    After you show this much strength, a majority of players at your stake have zero bluffs in their range.

    I was also struggling to combo count the draws as the board was paired and kept thinking that maybe villain wouldn't do this with a draw. You reckon I should've bet less and just called the raise?
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭✭
    edited July 8
    BFSkinner wrote: »
    This is a cooler, but you could have made it much cheaper for yourself.
    Agree. And that's why it's a misplay - mostly because H overplayed his hand
  • BFSkinnerBFSkinner Red Chipper Posts: 118 ✭✭
    sundried wrote: »
    BFSkinner wrote: »
    After you show this much strength, a majority of players at your stake have zero bluffs in their range.

    I was also struggling to combo count the draws as the board was paired and kept thinking that maybe villain wouldn't do this with a draw. You reckon I should've bet less and just called the raise?

    What do you beat? How many bluffs do you think he actually has here?

  • sundriedsundried Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
    BFSkinner wrote: »
    What do you beat? How many bluffs do you think he actually has here?

    Any QJ and any flush draw. I just wanted to know if I should even consider them as the board was paired.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,654 -
    sundried wrote: »
    BFSkinner wrote: »
    What do you beat? How many bluffs do you think he actually has here?

    Any QJ and any flush draw. I just wanted to know if I should even consider them as the board was paired.

    It's possible that by potting turn you fold out all draws, which is one reason a smaller bet is necessary.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,503 ✭✭✭✭
    In general BvB and both players flop trips = someone is going to lose a stack pretty often.

    I agree with above that 97o is folding preflop unless I know the BB overfolds and/or under 3Bs, which the player pool does on Ignition 25NL :)

    I also agree that your bet sizing doesn't make sense when you think about how you would want to play your range in this situation.
  • BFSkinnerBFSkinner Red Chipper Posts: 118 ✭✭
    sundried wrote: »
    BFSkinner wrote: »
    What do you beat? How many bluffs do you think he actually has here?

    Any QJ and any flush draw. I just wanted to know if I should even consider them as the board was paired.

    So what does shoving accomplish?

  • PjotrskiPjotrski Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    Please don't post the result of a hand. No one commenting is immune to bias.

    His flop calling range is

    - better 9x: 89+ (5 suited combos, 15 off suit)
    - full house: T9 (1 suited, 2 off suit), TT (3)

    - JT+ (48)
    - worse 9x: without reads very few
    - (combo) draws: at least 19 to 23 OEs, more if he plays things like 78o
    - maybe some under pairs, some JJ

    Without reads and game flow I'd make the turn smaller, so that he can call his top pairs and draws.

    We pot and he raises.

    You have
    - 13% against better 9x (5 suited, 15 off suit, let's say 10)
    - 69% against a combo draw (4 combos)

    Shoving about $20 to win a $50ish pot you need about 40% equity. So he really needs to be raising all his combo draws AND some open enders. So shoving is definitely not the way to go.


    Without reads his raise is never a pure bluff. The average villain is also not raising draws or pairs here on the turn, especially when you are potting it.

    Basically all his 9x are better. Maybe you tie with 97s, but he just doesn't have much 96 or worse in his range.

    That essentially makes your 97o a bluff catcher. Without reads I really don't mind folding the turn. Most villains are just raising 9x and some full houses here.

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