Calculating Fold equity

GSP21GSP21 Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
Hi! I am struggling with knowing how to calculate live the fold equity that I need to make a semi bluff profitable.
How can I do that in real time, after estimating the equity that I will have when called?


  • Ori13_TTVOri13_TTV PennsylvaniaRed Chipper Posts: 94 ✭✭
    edited July 2020
    To calculate fold equity, you have to figure out your opponents range, and ask yourself which hands you think he will call and which ones you think he will fold. Count the combos

    As a simple example, lets say opponents range is AA, KK, AKo, AKs and AQs

    There are 6 combos of each pocket pair hand, 12 combos of each offsuit hand, and 4 combos of each suited hand

    AA(6) + KK(6) + AKo(12) + AKs(4) + AQs(4) = 32 total combos.

    Lets say opponent folds AKo, AKs and AQs if he bets and calls with AA and KK,
    That means he calls with 12 combos and folds 20 combos.


    So in this imaginary scenario we would have 62.5% fold equity

    For more complicated ranges, you can use equilab's range selection tool to help you count combos since it tells you how many combos are selected. Of course you do have to make assumptions to decide what range to give your opponent and what you think he will call with, but thats part of the game, always a degree of uncertainty.
  • Ori13_TTVOri13_TTV PennsylvaniaRed Chipper Posts: 94 ✭✭
    My apologies, i missed the part where you were asking how to do this live.

    As far as estimating fold equity live, i think its just a matter of a little bit of off table practice and preparation.

    Most of the time we're semi bluffing will either be an open ender or a flushdraw where we have ~20% to hit our draw by the next street. Plug that in to the advanced EV formula off the tables and solve for for FE in scenarios with a 1/3pot bet, a 2/3 pot bet and maybe a check raise scenario and from there you can remember your answers and loosely apply them to your game
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,745 -
    Good advice.

    What you'll find is you'll come across similar situations repeatedly, where the fold equity required is "a lot" or "not much". Anyone who tells you they figured their opponent would fold 35% of the time to a given bet is probably lying.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • GSP21GSP21 Red Chipper Posts: 3 ✭✭
    Thanks guys really appreciate it.

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