Equity Calculation on the Flop

NitinNitin Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
Villian: :Ad:Kh
Hero : :Js:Ts
Flop: :As:Qd:4s

According to Equilab software at this stage the equity of hero is 43%. Can someone please explain me how?
With proper calculations including outs counting.

Thanks

Regards
Nitin Sharma

Comments

  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,867 -
    You are behind a pair, so the only realistic way to win is with your straight draw and flush draw. There are 9 spades and 4 kings. One card, :KS: is in both groups. so 12 outs. :KH: is already out (but you only know it because hands are face up. That is 11 outs.

    Each card is about 2% of the deck. You get two draws at it. so 44% is the estimate by multiplying by 4. That is pretty close to the 43% given.

    My book: Poker Workbook for Math Geeks covers all of this.

    Doug
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • NitinNitin Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    Hi Doug,

    Indeed Poker Workbook for Math Geeks is an excellent book I highly recommend to anyone.

    Doug, i was actually reading equity topic on level 2 Math so, i came across this example and couldn't solve it. I have just finished studying Math at turn chapter from your book.

    I agree with your realistic draws the mistake i did was i added 3 outs of J and 3 of 10, thinking there is a possibility even if remote to hit trips on turn and river therefore my outs were 17 (11+6).

    So the conclusion is lets take more realistic outs only rather than adding remote possibilities.

    Regards
    Nitin Sharma



  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,669 -
    When you need both turn and river, you can't count the outs like that. You're now dealing with conditional probabilities. That said, these running outs do add a little equity, although sometimes that'll be negated by running redraw outs for your opponent.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,867 -
    Think of it this way: To get "runner runner outs" (like for trips from nothing) it is similar to saying you need to win a coin flip once, then if you do, win a coin flip again.

    The first coin flip win is 50% of the time. To win the second you must win 50% of the 50% for 25%. Not terrible, except to win the runner runner trips game, you need to win a "3/50 coin flip" then a "2/50 coin flip" for about 6/2500 We just ignore this with little impact on estimate.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,669 -
    Seem to recall from Miller BDFDs and BDSDs are worth about 1.5 outs.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,867 -
    BDSD come in many flavors. The intial three can have 0,1 or 2 gaps. Each is different. runnung up against being the wheel or broadway can also make a three connector act like a two gapper (AKQ same as 256)
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,669 -
    Kids. When I was your age, the 3-straight didn't have gaps.
    Moderation In Moderation

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