# Equity Calculation on the Flop

Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
Villian:
Hero :
Flop:

According to Equilab software at this stage the equity of hero is 43%. Can someone please explain me how?
With proper calculations including outs counting.

Thanks

Regards
Nitin Sharma

• RCP Coach Posts: 1,876 -
You are behind a pair, so the only realistic way to win is with your straight draw and flush draw. There are 9 spades and 4 kings. One card, is in both groups. so 12 outs. is already out (but you only know it because hands are face up. That is 11 outs.

Each card is about 2% of the deck. You get two draws at it. so 44% is the estimate by multiplying by 4. That is pretty close to the 43% given.

My book: Poker Workbook for Math Geeks covers all of this.

Doug
Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
Author Poker Plays You Can Use
Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
• Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
Hi Doug,

Indeed Poker Workbook for Math Geeks is an excellent book I highly recommend to anyone.

Doug, i was actually reading equity topic on level 2 Math so, i came across this example and couldn't solve it. I have just finished studying Math at turn chapter from your book.

I agree with your realistic draws the mistake i did was i added 3 outs of J and 3 of 10, thinking there is a possibility even if remote to hit trips on turn and river therefore my outs were 17 (11+6).

So the conclusion is lets take more realistic outs only rather than adding remote possibilities.

Regards
Nitin Sharma

• Las VegasPosts: 4,745 -
When you need both turn and river, you can't count the outs like that. You're now dealing with conditional probabilities. That said, these running outs do add a little equity, although sometimes that'll be negated by running redraw outs for your opponent.
Moderation In Moderation
• RCP Coach Posts: 1,876 -
Think of it this way: To get "runner runner outs" (like for trips from nothing) it is similar to saying you need to win a coin flip once, then if you do, win a coin flip again.

The first coin flip win is 50% of the time. To win the second you must win 50% of the 50% for 25%. Not terrible, except to win the runner runner trips game, you need to win a "3/50 coin flip" then a "2/50 coin flip" for about 6/2500 We just ignore this with little impact on estimate.
Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
Author Poker Plays You Can Use
Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
• Las VegasPosts: 4,745 -
Seem to recall from Miller BDFDs and BDSDs are worth about 1.5 outs.
Moderation In Moderation
• RCP Coach Posts: 1,876 -
BDSD come in many flavors. The intial three can have 0,1 or 2 gaps. Each is different. runnung up against being the wheel or broadway can also make a three connector act like a two gapper (AKQ same as 256)
Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
Author Poker Plays You Can Use
Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
• Las VegasPosts: 4,745 -
Kids. When I was your age, the 3-straight didn't have gaps.
Moderation In Moderation