Lost a monster hand- cooler or bad play?

QuadDeuces2222QuadDeuces2222 Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
Since joining, I have turned from a negative player to +20bb/100 in last 10,000 hands! However, I sometimes lose massive pots by possibly being too aggressive? Help me here if my play was poor.

Playing full ring, microstakes online at ACR. I have 288bb sitting in MP1. The main villain is on button with 250bb. I have him pegged as a tight/passive reg (800 hands played shows him plays tighter range besides button at a 40%vpip on that spot. He is a calling station post flop).

I open up MP1 with :Tc:Ts to 3bb, which is standard for table. Main villain calls from button, and BB who is an unknown, calls. Pot is 10bb.

Flop: :Th:6h:Qd

With 10bb in pot, I cbet 5bb to charge any flush draws, and get value from Qx holdings. Villian on button calls, and BB calls. Pot is now 25bb.

Turn :As

With 25bb in pot, I confidently lead out 15bb, as the only hand that could beat me is KJ (16 combos), but there are tons more combos I beat including flush draws and two pair holdings. I am raised by the villain to 45bb, the BB folds, leaving me the decision what to do with my set. Pot is 95bb, it is 30 more to call and villain has 197bb remaining.

With the pressure on, I tried to put him on a range of KJ(16 combos), A6 (9), A10 (3), 66 (3), AQ (9), and suited Ax combos (9). I figured Q10 was out of the question as he would have raised on flop. With 16 combos I lose to vs 25 or so combos I beat, I decided to overshove for remaining 197, figuring the money was going in anyway and I wanted maximum value out of flush drawings. Figured I could manufacture some fold equity as well to flush draws.

He turned over :Kh:Jc , the river was a brick :2d and my entire sessions profit was shipped away.

Can I ever get away from my set in this spot? Is the better play to call turn and call river? Since we were both deep, how should I have played differently in this spot?

Comments

  • blindraiseblindraise Red Chipper Posts: 302 ✭✭
    Plz don't post results immediately it makes to hard to review the hand.

    I think the shove was a bit much, but if you think they're calling with draws/top pair why not
  • CptSpauldingCptSpaulding Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    @QuadDeuces2222 first, this is just a straight up cooler; if the hand was still MW by the river, the dynamics would be entirely different as well (just something to remember).

    The answer to your question about whether you can get away from a spot like this; is generally a "no". Generally we only typically find a fold against a very specific player profile. Since you mentioned that V is a calling station postflop; then I see no problem with taking a 3 street betting line; contingent on BB in this pot.

    Also, some people may suggest not leading on the turn. I disagree, since it's an MW pot, I feel leading the turn is the exact thing to do while holding middle set
  • QuadDeuces2222QuadDeuces2222 Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
    Thank you Blind and CPT for the feedback. Also, I'll hold off on posting results of the hand next time.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2
    Yes it's a cooler. TT is so high in your distribution that you cannot fold except if you know for sure V is a super nit only raising with the absolute nuts.

    Yet you've lost much, much more than you should have
    With the pressure on, I tried to put him on a range of KJ(16 combos), A6 (9), A10 (3), 66 (3), AQ (9), and suited Ax combos (9). I figured Q10 was out of the question as he would have raised on flop.
    I think you're sur-evaluating V's range. Even if he is looser on BU, he probably doesn't have A6o and ATo may be discounted. (Same for QT tho: probably only QTs?)
    This really depends on HOW we assume V would construct his 40% preflop calling range. Knowing he calls preflop too much isn't just enough :-)
    (Also, would a tight really call flop with bottom pair (A6) at all?)

    Furthermore if you discount/dismiss QT because he would have raised on flop, why does this thinking not apply to 66?

    Last but not least, I'm really unsure if a "tight passive" player will c-r 9 combos of nut FD like Ah9h. Maybe he could c-r some of them, but I would mostly expect the 3 top nut FD like AhJh+ and dismiss or at least discount the others. (Plus if he is more on the passive side, he could also just call with such monster draws IP and raise :HEART: river - meaning we even might have to discount his FD combos even more.)
    With 16 combos I lose to vs 25 or so combos I beat, I decided to overshove for remaining 197, figuring the money was going in anyway and I wanted maximum value out of flush drawings.
    Yes... but not. You take his raising range as V will 100% of it when you shove. When you HUGELY shove. But will he really call your shove with all the hands he raises with? I doubt. Which reduce how many combos you beat and the equity TT has.
  • QuadDeuces2222QuadDeuces2222 Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
    Wow.. this is awesome feedback. I may be giving him more bluffing/raising combos than what is likely. Instead of 9 combos of nut flush, more likely possibly 3-4 combos, plus he would have CR'd the flop most likely had he had 66 if it was multi way.

    Perhaps the more optimal line in the future is to call the raise on the turn, and check-call the river depending on the price I get. There would have been a pot size bet or so remaining on the river with 197bb remaining. With the nuts he may have given me a 1/3 or so price to call, saying me 100-120bb or so. If he was on a FD, and a blank hit, he may bluff the river giving me a chance to bluff catch.

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