My first poker hand review: call or fold?

Lord_TruffingtonLord_Truffington Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
Hello Red Chippers, I'd like to ask your opinion on a hand. It is not mine but I saw it on Twitter. It's from the $2.5k Venom tourney:

Villain in in BTN (LAG, 31/27) and Hero in BB (both with ~100bb effective)

Action folds to BTN who opens 2bb, Hero calls with :4c:4d

Flop is :2c:Ad:4s

V c-bets 1.5bb (~1/3x pot), Hero checks/calls

Turn is :Qh

V c-bets 6.4bb (~1x pot), Hero check/calls

River is :As

Hero checks, V shoves for 75bb

Fold or call?!

My thinking (pls bear with me, i'm a total newbie, only been playing for 4 months!) is that V has in total 12 combos that beat us (1x AA, 3x AQ, 2x A4, 3x A2, 3x QQ). However, given his small flop c-bet, and the fact he is a LAG, I would think it's unlikely he flopped two pairs (although not impossible he would slowplay them). Turn c-bet is larger almost to show he connected, so AQ and QQ (6 combos in total) are possible holdings. When the second A hits the board, he shoves. Would he do it with Ax? I think so, certainly with AK (top set, top kicker, 8 combos), possiblly with AJ (decent kicker, given the blocker value of the Q on the board, 8 combos).

Also, the all-in on the river (massive overbet) makes me think it is used to scare Hero, rather than just for value. It forces to play solid, straightfoward poker, and fold all bluffs. A pot bet would have been more difficult to play. There are loads of other combos (AK, AJ, AT, maybe even A9, 32 combos) which he would c-bet there, and that do not beat Hero's.

So, my conclusion is that it's a CALL. But then again i'm very new and i might have a very flawed thinking. What does the community think?

Many thanks for any reply, very appreciated!

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    Is $2.5k the guarantee or the entry fee?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Lord_TruffingtonLord_Truffington Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Buy-in, so you'd expect decent players (and very good ones) to play!
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    Right.

    So I differ with your analysis a bit. I think 1/3 pot c-bet, full-pot turn could be pretty much made with full-range here, particularly on that board. Almost a programmed play. Additionally, preflop LAGs needn't be laggy postflop.

    I really don't know what to make of the massive river overbet. It's polarizing on a board where BTN doesn't have any bluffs???

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  • Lord_TruffingtonLord_Truffington Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Many thanks!
    That river bet is certainly confusing. A busted straight (KJ) would probably continue as a bluff, but that's the only one. Then it's the nuts or a few marginal made hands (AJ, AK, etc.). Would you bet that big with any of those holdings, though? Don't know, the player that played that hand ended up folding so we will never know what villain had... I think i would have called (and probably busted out of the tourney!)
  • Ori13_TTVOri13_TTV PennsylvaniaRed Chipper Posts: 94 ✭✭
    edited August 16
    Snap calling. If he has a better boat then GG. I think youre hand is under repoed here so he may be overconfident with some potential bluffs as a result. I think hes going yo have JJ TT And JT as possible bluffs as well

    Hands like AK or AJ are probably more incentivized to bet small on the river unless they think you are going to call with worse Ax like AT or something

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