Bad play with set of K?

ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 130 ✭✭
This was a weird hand. I feel like I read the donk bet wrong and that effected the rest of the hand. When V donk bet I put him on Qx, 10x and maybe a set. Sometimes players do this with flush draws but there wasn't one and so I ruled that out. When the K comes on the turn I figured I was ahead of just about everything he had and so I check raised to build the pot hoping he had something strong like AQ which he didn't want to fold. When V check raised me back I was very confused. Was he overvaluing his hand? V bets big on the river. So I'm thinking Q10 or set of 7, and a small chance of KQ. I had ruled out AJ earlier because of the donk bet. Was this a mistake? I don't think I can fold the second nuts and the difference between calling and shoving is pretty negligible at this point but maybe I should have just called the river bet. Is there a different line I should've taken? Should I have paid more attention to the possible straight?

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)

SB ($41.48) [VPIP: 35.7% | PFR: 20.2% | AGG: 34.1% | Flop Agg: 32.7% | Turn Agg: 39.7% | River Agg: 29% | 3-Bet: 5.1% | 4-Bet: 6.7% | Cold Call: 33.2% | Hands: 559]

I had 25.35 or just over 100bb and am UTG

Dealt to Hero: K:club: K:spade:

HERO Raises To $0.80, EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Calls $0.70, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [13.27 effective]
Flop ($1.85): 7:diamond: Q:heart: T:spade:
SB Bets $0.88 (Rem. Stack: $39.80), HERO Calls $0.88 (Rem. Stack: $23.67)

Turn ($3.61): 7:diamond: Q:heart: T:spade: K:heart:
SB Bets $2.27 (Rem. Stack: $37.53), HERO Raises To $4.54 (Rem. Stack: $19.13), SB Raises To $6.81 (Rem. Stack: $32.99), HERO Calls $2.27 (Rem. Stack: $16.86)

River ($17.23): 7:diamond: Q:heart: T:spade: K:heart: 5:diamond:
SB Bets $10.85 (Rem. Stack: $22.14), HERO Raises To $16.86 (allin), SB Calls $6.01 (Rem. Stack: $16.13)

Comments

  • RyanH1995RyanH1995 Red Chipper Posts: 89 ✭✭
    Donk bets usually tend to be a weakish top/middle pair or draw. Villain also flats from the sb and doesn't 3bet pre so I think its unlikely he has QQ or TT. Its possible he defends QTs, QTo or 77 from the sb but I also think he would bet larger or just x/r to build the pot. Its definitely possible villain turned two pair but his turn 3bet just screams that he has a straight. While his stats do look spewy he would need to be seriously overestimating the strength of his hand to do this with 2 pair on a board that is awful for his range and great for yours. Never folding river but I wouldn't jam unless you think he is fishy enough to call off with 2 pair.
  • Benjammin Benjammin Red Chipper Posts: 30 ✭✭
    Neither of you check raised at any point in the hand according to the above description. Also, you do not have the second nuts on the river. Outside of that, I’m not sure why we would only call on the flop to then raise the turn when it brings in a straight. I can see some reasons for just calling the flop, but those same reasons would likely still be there on the turn. Perhaps you may have saved some chips in the end had you just called the turn and then raised the blank river (assuming that your opponent raises again) and been three bet. My experience has been that if I’m three bet on the river they have it. As the betting has gone anyway it seems pretty likely that you are beat on the river and I do not understand the shove. But hey, maybe he is putting you on AK or AA and overplaying two pair so I’d definitely have called.
  • PapaGiorgioPapaGiorgio Red Chipper Posts: 99 ✭✭
    I agree that the donk bet usually indicates weakness, but I rarely see players donk with draws. Thus, I wouldn't put AJ or J9 in his range. His turn raise, though, suggests the King helped him. I think KT/K7 fits the bill (more likely KTd): weak 2nd or 3rd pair that donks to try to get a fold from hands that miss, and then backs into two pair. He can easily think that you have AK and now turned top pair, so he's thinking he's getting value. I also agree with the other two comments that I wouldn't raise the river. I'm not sure if many worse hands will call my raise. Regardless of the outcome, I would make a note on the player regarding hands with which he donks (did he donk draws, pairs, big hands), and also on the strength of hand he 3B on the turn.

    Any thought on his bet sizing? I would think that if he has AJ/J9, then his turn raise would have been larger to discourage flush draws from calling.
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 130 ✭✭
    Any thought on his bet sizing? I would think that if he has AJ/J9, then his turn raise would have been larger to discourage flush draws from calling.

    I think that's one of the things that threw me off. His reraise on the turn was pretty small and his river bet was closer to half pot and if he had a straight why not ship it. If I'm calling 10 I'm most likely calling 16.

  • Benjammin Benjammin Red Chipper Posts: 30 ✭✭
    I think opponents bet sizing is pretty reasonable for a turn 3 bet for value at these stack depths. Don’t really mind if he calls with a flush draw.
  • FaceiroFaceiro Nottingham, UKRed Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    I could most definitely put villain on J9s. This is easily a hand that falls into his PF calling range. On the flop he's probably happy to take a stab and take it down, or ship it in on a raise, especially with a BDFD. I guess the turn for me is the give away. The only time I click back is when I have the nuts and think my opponent might put me on something like TPTK, or 2P, and ship over the top.

    You will hate me for this, but I do not understand the raise on the river. I think I'm calling quite a lot, and I definitely have a fold in me, but never shipping over.
  • cxy123cxy123 Red Chipper Posts: 77 ✭✭
    V range definitely would have KQ. Other 2p hands like QT are going to B/C on the turn. B/3b turn, lead river is a pretty nuttish line. KQ, TT, 77 - 9 combos that can call the river. AJ/J9 call all day and many more than 9 combos. This isn't a bluff ever.

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