NL20 KTs

Zsolti07Zsolti07 Red Chipper Posts: 115 ✭✭
edited September 2 in Online Poker Hands
Nit Villain (1k hands): 17/13/4,9 - CO RFI:18 - WTSD: 30 - Cbet: 68

FLOP: I raised with BDFD + BDSD
TURN: I continued the agression because my Equity has improved (and the turn card is scary). I got an allin check/raise. The Potodds was 26%. I had against AK 27%, against AQ 25%.

Thank you for the opinions.
And one more question: if I call the shove raise anyway, it wouldn't have been better if I broke immediately? My fold equity would have been higher.
Zsolti07

Hand Information
Holdem NL 0.10/0.20, 0.2 BB (6 handed).
Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com

Table Information
Seat: 1 acescary21 ($76.14) Big Blind
Seat: 3 TEZZA555 ($14.3)
Seat: 5 sheriffhuge467 ($10.92)
Seat: 6 SplashBrother4 ($20.18)
Seat: 8 HERO ($29.41) Dealer
Seat: 10 TAWERYAWER365 ($21.3) Small Blind
Dealt to HERO
KC.png 10C.png 

Preflop (Pot:0.3)
TEZZA555    FOLD
sheriffhuge467    CALL $0.2
SplashBrother4    RAISE $0.8
HERO    CALL $0.8
TAWERYAWER365    FOLD
acescary21    FOLD
sheriffhuge467    FOLD

Flop(Pot: $2.1)
4D.png 7C.png QH.png 

SplashBrother4    BET $1.05
HERO    RAISE $3.1
SplashBrother4    CALL $2.05

Turn(Pot: $8.3)
4D.png 7C.png QH.png AC.png 

SplashBrother4    CHECK
HERO    BET $5.6
SplashBrother4    RAISE $16.28
HERO    CALL $10.68

River(Pot: $40.86)

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    Couple of points. You probably have enough hands to get a good estimate of the RFI from villain from this position. I realize it's a raise over a limper, but the range is likely to be similar.
    With that range, what do you expect their flop bet-call range to be. This appears to be a tight player. That's probably a strong range.
    Finally, what is their check-jam turn range? It's more than just AK/AQ.

    You've taken an ambitious line. Given you're polarized on the turn I wonder if a bigger bet is preferred?
    Moderation In Moderation
  • PapaGiorgioPapaGiorgio Red Chipper Posts: 99 ✭✭
    I agree with Kat with some additional info. I don't think most opponents cbet-call with air. They usually have a pair or good draw. His turn xR reps more than just Top pair. Since you have the nut flush draw and blocker, he's repping two pair plus. Based on my read, you likely need to hit the flush to win. Your equity doesn't exceed 26%, so this is a fold for me.
  • Zsolti07Zsolti07 Red Chipper Posts: 115 ✭✭
    I agree with Kat with some additional info. I don't think most opponents cbet-call with air. They usually have a pair or good draw. His turn xR reps more than just Top pair. Since you have the nut flush draw and blocker, he's repping two pair plus. Based on my read, you likely need to hit the flush to win. Your equity doesn't exceed 26%, so this is a fold for me.

    Yes, after the turn c/r I knew, that it's two pair plus but my equity against two pair+ is 24,79 (AA, QQ, 77, 44, AQ, A7s, A4s). It's minus EV so you're right. Unfortunatelly on the table I couldn't that calculate so exactly.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    edited September 3
    Zsolti07 wrote: »
    I agree with Kat with some additional info. I don't think most opponents cbet-call with air. They usually have a pair or good draw. His turn xR reps more than just Top pair. Since you have the nut flush draw and blocker, he's repping two pair plus. Based on my read, you likely need to hit the flush to win. Your equity doesn't exceed 26%, so this is a fold for me.

    Yes, after the turn c/r I knew, that it's two pair plus but my equity against two pair+ is 24,79 (AA, QQ, 77, 44, AQ, A7s, A4s). It's minus EV so you're right. Unfortunatelly on the table I couldn't that calculate so exactly.

    I think in real time you just assume you win with a straight or flush and multiply your outs by 2. Unfortunately in this case, that calculation tells you you're around break-even. On a good day I might notice there are some board pairs that make my hand and I still lose, thereby confirming the fold.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Zsolti07Zsolti07 Red Chipper Posts: 115 ✭✭
    edited September 3
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    ...what do you expect their flop bet-call range to be. This appears to be a tight player. That's probably a strong range.

    As the regs raise with a polarized range, I don't fold TPGK either in the first street in general. It depends on Villain's raise cb stats (would be interested in your opinion.) A depolarized raise stat is about 7%, I'm thinking so. So before villain's c/r I thought, he can have any TPGK. AQ, KQ, QJ - yes, the AQ is bad because it's two pair but on the turn I had no more choiche because if the river is not a straight or flush for me, than what next?
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    You've taken an ambitious line. Given you're polarized on the turn I wonder if a bigger bet is preferred?

    I don’t have much experience with unusual bet sizes yet but I want to build they in my game.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    Hmmm.
    Isn't the turn card better for your opponent's range than yours? I really don't know what the solution is, but it always feels weird to get check-shoved on and find yourself with a fair chunk of equity around the break-even point. So two solutions are 1) bet bigger on the turn; 2) check back the turn.
    Moderation In Moderation

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