Jacks in 3bet pot - 50NL

kkarpuzikkarpuzi Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
edited September 12 in Online Poker Hands
50NL (.25/.50)
LJ - 55/18/1.5/0 - 11 hands-48.87 dollars
CO - 81/10/2.3/9.1 - 31 hands-30.32 dollars
BU (hero) - 27/22/2.5/11 - 8k hands-84.12 dollars
SB - 21/0/4/0 - 42 hands-30.14 dollars
BB (villain) - 29/21/1.3/20 - 14 hands-48.80 dollars

Limp, limp, hero makes it 3.25 with JcJh, fold, BB makes it 10, fold, fold. At this point, I dont think I can fold in position but im worried because hes showing strength vs my large open. I call.
flop: 8c,3s,7d - pot 21.25
v bets 5, i call. small bet he can make with TT and AK
turn: 8s - pot 31.25
v bets 11. He's looking like he's setting up for an all in on the river. He could still be making this bet with TT so i call.
river: 9d - pot 53.25
v tanks down to the last 5 seconds of his time bank and shoves for 23.30. I called pretty quickly because a) I was somewhat distracted at the other table where I was playing heads up for first place in a 27 player sng and b) he was taking so long.

After a quick analysis afterwards, I think I should have folded the river as there is no hands that I beat when he shoves the river unless he's making this play with AK which is highly unlikely for an unknown.
Is my thinking correct or am I committed when playing 100bb with jacks on a safe runout?


Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    Why the huge open?
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  • BadprimeribBadprimerib Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
    I like the big open based on the limpers stats and likely propensity to call super wide. Once the BB 3bets to 20BBs tho... My default here would be to fold preflop without more history.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    Oh right, twin limpers, yeah it's not unreasonable.

    Possibly an important detail: you say you don't want to fold preflop given that you have position, but the SPR is so low your positional advantage has mostly evaporated.
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  • kkarpuzikkarpuzi Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    Thats true kat. What do you think of my line and train of thought? Am i really supposed to fold jacks in this spot preflop?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    kkarpuzi wrote: »
    Thats true kat. What do you think of my line and train of thought? Am i really supposed to fold jacks in this spot preflop?

    I think the problem may be a lack of a good plan? Like it seems to be, in the absence of an overcard, you're going to call off 3 streets, whereas if the board is bad, you'll find a fold. Given that you'll lose some of the time the board is low, and fold a lot of the time it isn't, are you really getting the right price to call pre?
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  • kkarpuzikkarpuzi Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    kkarpuzi wrote: »
    Thats true kat. What do you think of my line and train of thought? Am i really supposed to fold jacks in this spot preflop?

    I think the problem may be a lack of a good plan? Like it seems to be, in the absence of an overcard, you're going to call off 3 streets, whereas if the board is bad, you'll find a fold. Given that you'll lose some of the time the board is low, and fold a lot of the time it isn't, are you really getting the right price to call pre?

    Well he can certainly make this play with AQ, AK, TT along with AA,KK,QQ, in which case I have 44% equity and only need 32%. It seems like im handcuffed post flop but he could also slow down. It just feels too nitty to fold pre.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    Okay, but how much of that equity do you realize if you fold on high boards and call 3 barrels on low ones, and how much more do you lose on average when you call off post? Given all that, how does this work out if you jam pre? Is the EV in either case better than just folding pre?

    Figuring all that out requires some work, but I think you can do better than instinctively regarding the preflop fold as too nitty.
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  • kkarpuzikkarpuzi Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Okay, but how much of that equity do you realize if you fold on high boards and call 3 barrels on low ones, and how much more do you lose on average when you call off post? Given all that, how does this work out if you jam pre? Is the EV in either case better than just folding pre?

    Figuring all that out requires some work, but I think you can do better than instinctively regarding the preflop fold as too nitty.

    Ok, how would you go about working this spot out?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    Probably use a tool like CREV, unless someone has a better idea. Or Flop Falcon.
    You may be able to brute force it with some assumptions like:
    V always c-bets
    You always fold when an overcard flops
    Then you might be able to split V's range into the overpairs that he triple barrels and the other stuff that he gives up.
    Anyone got a short-cut to this one?
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  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    But given that's complicated and this is basically BTN vs BB, I think the starting point is to calculate the EV of a 4b shove.
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  • kkarpuzikkarpuzi Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    So if I assign him an initial range of 1010+ and AK and say he folds tens, jacks, and AKo to the shove, that is about half the initial combos. Jacks has about 25% equity against the calling range of queens+ and AKs. Therefore EV = .625 x 14.50 - .375 x 39.30. EV = - 5.7 dollars

    Am I on the right track?
  • kkarpuzikkarpuzi Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    Oops, take that back. I think this is more accurate. EV = [ (.5 x 14.50) + (1.25 x 53.8)] - (3.75 x 46.30). EV = - 3.36 dollars when shoving
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    Sorry for delay, just had my weekend. I ran a similar calculation before I left and was surprised to find that with, that kind of tightish BB range, the play was indeed -EV.
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  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    @Red @kenaces How do you see this one? If ranges are such that we can't 4-bet pre, and elect to call instead, we surely need a more aggressive line postflop than simply calling down and hoping for the best?
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  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,396 ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 15
    kkarpuzi wrote: »
    BB (villain) - 29/21/1.3/20 - 14 hands-48.80 dollars
    @TheGameKat I don't understand what these stats mean... VPIP/PFR/???/???
    Even is these don't say much (only 14hands), they still might help to build (my) assumptions.

    (For a short point of view bc I'm on the train without computer)
    If I consider V as a total unknown yet competent (bc of stakes), I think we are entitled to ugly call.
    We unlock Js, block JT, and have pretty few better calling hands (probably only some 98s/A8s we didn't turn shove and some QQ we didn't 4bet pre and without Qs as better calling hands).
    Edit: plus bc of bet sizing, he should bet wide all along, meaning we should call wide too.
  • kkarpuzikkarpuzi Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    The third number is aggression factor and fourth is 3bet pct. His stats indeed mean nothing with only 14 hands but the limpers stats are more important. The three bettor knows my big open is there because the limpers are whales and therefore in theory can three bet just as wide as against a regular open. I dont think I can raise profitably at any point post flop against an unknown. It seems like everything is straightforward up until the river where calling and folding are very close.
  • kkarpuzikkarpuzi Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,396 ✭✭✭✭
    Ho ? These stats seem off. A 20% 3bet freq over 14 hands means he 3bet 2.8 hands. Same about all of them.
    kkarpuzi wrote: »
    I dont think I can raise profitably at any point post flop against an unknown.
    Not with JJ. But other hands make good candidates
    kkarpuzi wrote: »
    He had KK
    OFC. I'm the only one who poste(d) hands I won to see if I played it well (rare) or if I got lucky either with the cards or bc Villain were worst than me (often) 😏.
    Everybody else (almost) just come and whine after loosing a pot, looking for excuses and/or comfort.

    Yeah I'm grumpy ; tired of always seeing the same things. Want to make me happy - and improve at the same time? Do your homework aka your off-table analysis; so we have things to discuss, conclusions to validate or correct. Let's start with the beginning (preflop):
    • With what range do you open after 2 limpers?
    • What is Villain 3bet % from BB ?
    • What range would V 3bet with, linear or polarized? Based on this, does he have AQs? AJs? AQo? QJo? A3s? KQo? KJs? T8s? ...? -> what would be his 3bet range?
    • What is JJ raw equity against Villain's 3bet range?
    • If you 4bet, how often would Villain fold? Considering this, with what range would you 4bet with?
    • Do you call his 3bet with A3s? ATs? T9s? JTs? 65s? A8s? ... ? -> With what range would you call his 3bet IP? (And don't forget that if you didn't open with in the first place, you can't have magically here ; and be brutally honest with yourself: don't add combos in the 1st answer just for this calling range to round up)
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    Thank you, @Red, for the thoughtful, useful, grumpy answer ;)
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  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,520 ✭✭✭✭
    Odd spot because of the larger than normal ISO. My first thought is that this is more like a 4B pot both in terms of ranges and SPR. I have never seen preflop solutions that address ISO raising 2 limpers(pretty sure they don't exist). So the closest analog is to think of this BB 3B vs UTG and use those ranges. In this case, TT is more of a call(very low-frequency 4B). Given there were two limpers and a larger ISO raise I think it is reasonable to assume BB's 3B range is even tighter.

    The next step is to put it into the solver and play around with the solution. When I see 4B like pot and 25%CB I assume they are range betting.

    The good news is you picked a very close spot to post as the solver mixes calling/folding TT on river in this line. Anytime I see solver folding a decent amount in this kind of spot I am happy to always fold my TT. I think your player pool in the 3B-B-B-B line is under bluffing especially when many will think it was a bad flop and not so great run out for them. Do you think this is the case or not?

    My sim IP calls the 3B 25% of the time with AA, 50% with QQ, and 100% with 88-JJ.

    I should also note that IP raises the turn quite a bit with TT.



  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,833 -
    Thanks for the interesting hand, @kkarpuzi and thanks as ever to all who contributed.
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  • kkarpuzikkarpuzi Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Ho ? These stats seem off. A 20% 3bet freq over 14 hands means he 3bet 2.8 hands. Same about all of them.
    kkarpuzi wrote: »
    I dont think I can raise profitably at any point post flop against an unknown.
    Not with JJ. But other hands make good candidates
    kkarpuzi wrote: »
    He had KK
    OFC. I'm the only one who poste(d) hands I won to see if I played it well (rare) or if I got lucky either with the cards or bc Villain were worst than me (often) 😏.
    Everybody else (almost) just come and whine after loosing a pot, looking for excuses and/or comfort.

    Yeah I'm grumpy ; tired of always seeing the same things. Want to make me happy - and improve at the same time? Do your homework aka your off-table analysis; so we have things to discuss, conclusions to validate or correct. Let's start with the beginning (preflop):
    • With what range do you open after 2 limpers?
    • What is Villain 3bet % from BB ?
    • What range would V 3bet with, linear or polarized? Based on this, does he have AQs? AJs? AQo? QJo? A3s? KQo? KJs? T8s? ...? -> what would be his 3bet range?
    • What is JJ raw equity against Villain's 3bet range?
    • If you 4bet, how often would Villain fold? Considering this, with what range would you 4bet with?
    • Do you call his 3bet with A3s? ATs? T9s? JTs? 65s? A8s? ... ? -> With what range would you call his 3bet IP? (And don't forget that if you didn't open with in the first place, you can't have magically here ; and be brutally honest with yourself: don't add combos in the 1st answer just for this calling range to round up)

    Thank you for the contribution but I already answered all those things. I didnt add any combos. I mentioned since my first post that I thought his 3bet range was pretty tight Tens+ and AK. Outta that range, I explained with the next post that 4b shoving would be -EV. The river was the only close spot in retrospect where he doesnt bet tens and AK. I didn't post this to feel comfort but wanted to examine a spot that I had difficulty with because of the way it played out. I am new to posting hands on forums and yes I think that the hands we lose we are more likely to analyze. Anyway this was helpful to me just in terms of calculating complex ev in the case of a hypothetical 4b shove.
  • kkarpuzikkarpuzi Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭


    The good news is you picked a very close spot to post as the solver mixes calling/folding TT on river in this line. Anytime I see solver folding a decent amount in this kind of spot I am happy to always fold my TT. I think your player pool in the 3B-B-B-B line is under bluffing especially when many will think it was a bad flop and not so great run out for them. Do you think this is the case or not?

    In retrospect, I for sure dont think hes bluffing the river but during the hand I for some reason thought there is a chance he does this with AK as he was taking forever to act. So on the river I am only beating tens and losing to queens, Kings, Aces.

    Thanks

    [/quote]

  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,520 ✭✭✭✭
    kkarpuzi wrote: »
    In retrospect, I for sure dont think hes bluffing the river but during the hand I for some reason thought there is a chance he does this with AK as he was taking forever to act. So on the river I am only beating tens and losing to queens, Kings, Aces.

    Thanks

    Sorry I misread/misremember the hands when I posted. I thought you had TT LOL, and I didn't read others' posts since I was in a rush. But I think you can still fold the river with JJ. If you really think the villain only has AK/TT+ preflop you might even be able to fold the turn?

  • kenaceskenaces Red Chipper Posts: 1,520 ✭✭✭✭
    Red wrote: »
    Yeah I'm grumpy ; tired of always seeing the same things. Want to make me happy - and improve at the same time? Do your homework aka your off-table analysis; so we have things to discuss, conclusions to validate or correct. Let's start with the beginning (preflop):
    • With what range do you open after 2 limpers?
    • What is Villain 3bet % from BB ?
    • What range would V 3bet with, linear or polarized? Based on this, does he have AQs? AJs? AQo? QJo? A3s? KQo? KJs? T8s? ...? -> what would be his 3bet range?
    • What is JJ raw equity against Villain's 3bet range?
    • If you 4bet, how often would Villain fold? Considering this, with what range would you 4bet with?
    • Do you call his 3bet with A3s? ATs? T9s? JTs? 65s? A8s? ... ? -> With what range would you call his 3bet IP? (And don't forget that if you didn't open with in the first place, you can't have magically here ; and be brutally honest with yourself: don't add combos in the 1st answer just for this calling range to round up)

    I would wager OP isn't too concerned with making you happy :)

    I basically thought through all your questions and then put it into PIO which made me happy but I am and that made me happy(I know I am strange)

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