checking the effective nuts / inducing bluffs

sfx_beigssfx_beigs Red Chipper Posts: 84 ✭✭



Hand from last night's game.  I took a line I don't usually take and I'm not convinced it's a good one.

.10-.20 NL. Villain (button) is the best player at the table.

replay.pppoker.net/game_record_publish/Frame/rls_200924/index.html?shareKey=5ace6f07-02bf-12d9-cfea-337a7654c142&lan=en

On the flop with top 2 pair out of position, I trust that Villain (pporter) will C-bet this flop.  So I check to him.  The addition of a second villain also makes me hope I can get something out of him as well and I'm confident I'm way ahead of a BB range here. Villain lets me down by not betting this flop.

Turn:  I lead out.  The 9 doesn't help pporter but looks like a good bluff card for me.  I could easily be betting 7x or hearts or protecting any one pair hand when Porter checks back the flop.

River:  The 6 gives me the effective nuts.  This is a situation where I'm not sure how to extract value.  There's very little if anything in Porter's range that makes me thing he's going to call with worse.  I don't think he has a premium over pair, he would have played faster earlier.  No other draws came through. If I'm looking at my line from his POV, I see a SB that most likely has a pair of some form on the turn.  T9, K9s, J9s etc... Most of my 7x combos also have have a pair on this board.  So the only air I have is a heart draw.  Here's where I'm worried I overthought this.  I checked thinking the only way I get any money is if Porter bets.  Obviously, he checks it back and now I'm second guessing whether I should just be playing the nuts faster on all 3 streets.  Did I get too cute here?

Thanks,
beigs

Comments

  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 140 ✭✭
    Getting value here is hard because the flop hits your and BB range but not button and unless he has 1010+ what is v betting on the flop? If the board was more draw heavy then I could see a check raise but in this situation I'd prefer leading out. You might get a call from broadways etc. Then when the 9 hits you can check the turn and give v the chance to bluff the river. But even that is not happening a lot. Unless v has a 9 or a heart draw its tough.

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