checking the effective nuts / inducing bluffs
Hand from last night's game. I took a line I don't usually take and I'm not convinced it's a good one.
.10-.20 NL. Villain (button) is the best player at the table.
On the flop with top 2 pair out of position, I trust that Villain (pporter) will C-bet this flop. So I check to him. The addition of a second villain also makes me hope I can get something out of him as well and I'm confident I'm way ahead of a BB range here. Villain lets me down by not betting this flop.
Turn: I lead out. The 9 doesn't help pporter but looks like a good bluff card for me. I could easily be betting 7x or hearts or protecting any one pair hand when Porter checks back the flop.
River: The 6 gives me the effective nuts. This is a situation where I'm not sure how to extract value. There's very little if anything in Porter's range that makes me thing he's going to call with worse. I don't think he has a premium over pair, he would have played faster earlier. No other draws came through. If I'm looking at my line from his POV, I see a SB that most likely has a pair of some form on the turn. T9, K9s, J9s etc... Most of my 7x combos also have have a pair on this board. So the only air I have is a heart draw. Here's where I'm worried I overthought this. I checked thinking the only way I get any money is if Porter bets. Obviously, he checks it back and now I'm second guessing whether I should just be playing the nuts faster on all 3 streets. Did I get too cute here?