What is your play here?

AngrypigAngrypig Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
Hope all of you having nice weekend...what is your play in following scenario???
CO: $2.00 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $2.17 (108.5 bb)
SB: $2.00 (100 bb)
BB: $2.07 (103.5 bb)

SB posts $0.01, BB posts $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has Kc Th
fold, Hero raises to $0.07, SB calls $0.06, BB calls $0.05

Flop: ($0.21, 3 players) 4s 2s Td
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.15, fold, BB calls $0.15

Turn: ($0.51, 2 players) Ts
BB checks, Hero bets $0.38, BB raises to $1.52
BB is good player, TAG, 622 hands vpip 23/17 AGG 3.3 3bet 4.9, folding to cbet 53jzfb3mboig0p.png

he made similar move before and folded when i raised him

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,933 -
    What range do you give your opponent?
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  • AngrypigAngrypig Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    well, 2 and 4 sets, A3s A5s to A9s, K3s, K5s to KQs, all other X10 broadways, maybe some other flushes
    ...
    i dont think he is bluffing here very often, with JJ, 66-99, AsX, A4s

    i think my bet sizing is not best, but when he called 3/4 OTF and CR my 2nd 3/4 bet OTT

    if i opt for 1/3 OTF and 1/3 OTT i could call CR and see river and react there.
    also he CR 4x and basically he is all in.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,933 -
    Okay, so the other hand you mentioned is presumably to note that he will check-raise bluff. And since his check-raise in this spot is indeed essentially all-in, I think the best way forward is simply to calculate your equity against that range and see if you're getting the right price to call.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • AngrypigAngrypig Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
  • AngrypigAngrypig Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    his bluff was 3x and not risking full stack, should i take it into consideration?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,933 -
    Angrypig wrote: »
    his bluff was 3x and not risking full stack, should i take it into consideration?

    Mmmm... It was also with more money to play so it's hard to say. It's true some players bet larger with value, although interestingly the value peak tends to occur (for bets rather than raises) at pot, with overbets being made with slightly weaker ranges.

    There's uncertainty in hand reading and ranging, so one approach is to look at a "range of ranges". First, give him a wide, bluff-heavy range here. Can you call the check-raise? Almost certainly yes. Now repeat with very few bluffs, can you call? Probably no, but it may be close. Then make a best guess between those extremes.

    You may never reach a conclusion, but for free you get in some really useful practice with equity calculations.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,933 -
    Incidentally, I suspect villain's sizing comes from her just clicking "raise pot" and your tracking software not removing rake, hence the numerical discrepancy.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • AngrypigAngrypig Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    pot odds 2.1 to 1 (32%)
    pessimist range sets and A high flush 20/80
    optimist range 50/50
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 3,933 -
    Ha yeah. It often shakes out like that.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • mdw72mdw72 Red Chipper Posts: 138 ✭✭
    Angrypig wrote: »
    well, 2 and 4 sets, A3s A5s to A9s, K3s, K5s to KQs, all other X10 broadways, maybe some other flushes
    ...
    i dont think he is bluffing here very often, with JJ, 66-99, AsX, A4s

    i think my bet sizing is not best, but when he called 3/4 OTF and CR my 2nd 3/4 bet OTT

    if i opt for 1/3 OTF and 1/3 OTT i could call CR and see river and react there.
    also he CR 4x and basically he is all in.

    I think your instincts on your bet sizing are correct. You bet about 3/4 pot on Flop and Turn and those are too large in relation to how your hand interacts with the board. You don't have a spade in your hand that would help from a removal point of view. So on the turn villain has all the flushes, plus offsuit combos with the As, Ks, Qs which all have gained equity on the turn. Trips has become a bluff catcher on the turn. I think a 30%-40% flop bet is a better option and the turn is a definite check back. This line will let you navigate rivers more easily.
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 140 ✭✭
    I think the one thing I would've done differently in this hand is checking the turn. This allows you to have the opportunity to realize your equity. If v has a flush this gives you an opportunity to hit your outs. If they have 10x then you are ahead of everything but A10. This is a hand with decent equity that wants to see showdown by checking the turn you give yourself a chance to do that.

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