Flush Over Flush - Bet Sizing and Decision Making on the River

JPuntJPunt Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
edited December 2020 in Online Poker Hands
This is my first post on the forum, so any criticisms on my formatting are appreciated!

0.10/0.20 NL, 9 handed
Villain 1 (27.15) in UTG+1
Villain 2 (20.40) in MP
Hero (23.85) in CO

Dealt to Hero: :Qh:Jh

Preflop:
Villain 1 opens to 0.80, action folds to Villain 2 who calls, action folds to Hero who calls and action folds back around. 3 ways to the flop.

Villain 1 has been using a 4x raise where the standard raise for the rest of the table has been around 3x. I contemplate going for a squeeze, but Villain 1's range doesn't seem wide enough for that to work especially with a holding like QJs.

Flop (2.55): :Kh:3h:Tc
Villain 1 bets 1.35, Villain 2 folds, Hero raises to 3.50, Villain 1 calls.

Having the straight and flush draw, I decide to raise to about 2.5x which, in hindsight seems to be too small. After the villain in UTG+1 calls, I'm putting him on at least AK, and there's a also good chance he has draws to the straight or flush.

Turn (9.55): :Kh:3h:Tc:6c
Villain 1 checks, Hero bets 4.85, Villain 1 calls.

Turn comes a blank, but I decide to keep up the aggression to fold out any weaker holdings that might still be in front of me if the river comes a blank. I think my raise sizing on the flop put me in an awkward spot here where I'm not sure what my bet size here should be, if I should be betting at all.

River (19.25): :Kh:3h:Tc:6c:7h
Villain 1 bets 3.80, Hero shoves for 14.70, Villain calls.

Villain shows: :Ah:2h for the win.

I get there with the second nut flush, and Villain leads out this time. In hindsight, this is a sizing that reeks of strength because I don't think it's ever a bluff. Definitely could have me beat with the nut flush the way the hand played out, but Villain might also be doing this with a lower flush. The problem is with Qh Jh I'm blocking some of the lower flushes that Villain could have gotten to the river with. I'm beating 10h 9h, 9h 8h, potentially 8h 7h, and maybe some slow-played sets like KK and TT, though I feel like I would have heard from them on the turn. I'm beat with any Ah Xh. In hindsight, there are a lot more combinations of Ah Xh than anything I'm beating here. Shoving felt obvious in the moment, but the more I think about it, the better a call seems.

I'd love to hear feedback on how I could have played this hand differently. My first thought is that my raise sizing after the flop was too small and I should have raised to 4x or 5x to set up for a turn shove. I'm not sure a turn shove would even be the right play there though. I definitely think I could have also just taken some more time on the river to think about what my opponent's bet sizing there meant rather than getting too excited about the absolute value of my hand.

Thanks for any help and advice in advance!

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,490 ✭✭✭✭✭
    JPunt wrote: »
    My first thought is that my raise sizing after the flop was too small and I should have raised to 4x or 5x to set up for a turn shove. I'm not sure a turn shove would even be the right play there though. I definitely think I could have also just taken some more time on the river to think about what my opponent's bet sizing there meant rather than getting too excited about the absolute value of my hand.

    You figured out the main issues:
    • Your flop check-raise is not good. You should size up, not having a turn shove in mind, but more about the too good of pot odds you otherwise lay down. (Note that depending on SPR, both aren't exclusive)
    • Villain suddenly donkbet river with a strange sizing. This isn't normal. What it means is you to try to figure out.

    Also you don't give any information on Villain, like VPIP/PFR, etc. You expect him to not open pretty wide - which is a natural assumption for UTG+1 in a 8-handed game.
    Yet Villain shows up with Ah2h. Either you had information and misinterpret them and/or this line by Villain with this hand is an important note for any further action, mostly: like opening UTG+1 with A2s, bet/call flop with almost a naked nut FD, donkbetting river with a small bet trying to get called when he completes his draw.

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