Flop shove vs a min-raise in a 3-bet pot on a monotone board?

sonchosmilaxsonchosmilax Red Chipper Posts: 14 ✭✭
Is there any other way to play this hand? The game had been pretty loose, and BTN had previously shown down two or three all-ins where he proved to be loose himself (one of them he hit top pair with K7o and went all in against a two pair Q7o).

I thought a 3-bet with AJo against that range (especially with only three players) is pretty standard preflop. But OOP post-flop on a monotone board with top pair I was a bit thrown. Should I check-call? Or try to get value (and a bit of protection) from one-club Kx and Qx hands? After opponent min-raises, should I just call? I don't see how I'd call on the flop without getting all the money in by the river (given SPR is only ~3 on the flop), so I just went ahead and shoved on the flop. Dunno if I was coolered here or if there was a way to lose less.

Ignition - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 145.4 BB
BB: 36.4 BB
BTN: 451.4 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has :As:Jc

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) BB has :6c:4d

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) BTN has :Kc:8c

BTN raises to 5 BB, Hero raises to 20 BB, fold, BTN calls 15 BB

Flop: (41 BB, 2 players) :7c:4c:Ac
Hero bets 24 BB, BTN raises to 48 BB, Hero raises to 125.4 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 77.4 BB

Turn: (291.8 BB, 2 players) :9S:

River: (291.8 BB, 2 players) :3C:

Hero shows :As:Jc (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 62%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)
BTN shows :Kc:8C: (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 38%, Flop 97%, Turn 100%)
BTN wins 277.4 BB

Comments

  • sonchosmilaxsonchosmilax Red Chipper Posts: 14 ✭✭
    Btw, BTN's stats at the time of the hand was VPIP 76 / PR 27 / 3B 26, but with only 37 hands as a sample so big grain of salt. Over the same sample Hero was 24/18/25, not sure if that changes anything.
  • LexthenextLexthenext Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    You are value bet shoving on the flop right? what type of hands are you trying to get value from? Do you think villain would min raise if he was reraising as a bluff? Do you think the villain is capable of re raise bluffing on a monotone board texture?
  • sonchosmilaxsonchosmilax Red Chipper Posts: 14 ✭✭
    My thought was I'm trying to get both protection and value from Kx and Qx hands with one club, or also KK-88 with one club (I'm only blocking JJ with one club). I assumed a lot of his made flushes were blocked since I hold the Jc (he can't have AJc, KJc, QJc, TJc) and the board held the Ac (so all of his suited Aces with clubs were impossible), and I didn't really put him on min-raising a made flush. I assume he'd just call a made flush--the only made flushes that made sense (I thought) for him to min-raise would be low ones like T9c, 98c, 65c, but even those my hand holds decent equity against since I have the Jc. He could also have a couple sets but then I have clean outs to flushes against all of them. The K8c surprised me because I don't see why he'd min-raise the nuts versus a 3-bettor who's c-betting OOP.

    I guess the question is where was the mistake? Would you go so far as to check-fold this hand? Or check-call? If you would bet, what sizing would you use, and then would you fold to a min-raise? Or just call? Like I said I only had 37 hands on this guy, and he had been real loose-aggressive in a couple of hands before, so I'm mainly asking for a default line in this spot against micro-stakes online cash players. Is the answer that a flop-raise on a monotone board is always the nuts at these stakes? (I've only played about 500 hands total in this game so it's hard for me to gauge how out of line I was with playing this hand in this manner)

  • Chopper755Chopper755 Red Chipper Posts: 14 ✭✭
    My thoughts are that I am not sure the population at 10NL are raising with a flush draw. Much more likely to have two pair plus. You are blocking A4 and A7.

    Personally I would have called and seen what the turn brought. I wouldn’t think about protection as would be pretty happy with villain drawing to a club and wouldn’t want to fold out a worse hand.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,342 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I guess the question is where was the mistake?
    The way to not get stacked and to increase your WR in every spot is to focus on fundamental poker theory. That is going to help you "construct" the pot.

    Preflop, the BU has opened to 5x. There are several things to consider here. While AJo may be a fine 3b at 100 bbs or less, it will perform worse and worse as you reach depth because it lacks playability. It will generally flop a reasonable pair but not improve beyond that. So it starts to become less a slam dunk raise and instead needs to be folded from time to time - and that is versus a standard open size.

    At 5x, if we assume our opponent is raising hands that make sense at this size, the range that continues against this price starts to become smaller and smaller proportionally. You can imagine this process as his opening size risks more and more - if he moves all in preflop, the hands that need to call him are basically the nuts.

    So this pot gets off to a questionable start, but then more EV is lost on the flop. In a pot that has been re-raised, stronger ranges have arrived. This means the difference in equity between the ranges has likely grown closer, and the quality of that equity, including its nut making ability, has increased. Laying a very large price such as you have begins to fold out the hands you want action from, and to assure that you get action from the ones you don't.

    Further, you are betting on a monotone flop, one of the least likely flops to hit the board. Fewer hands are able to continue given only a quarter of the deck really interacts with the board well, focused on a few top clubs, as well as hands that have flopped very strong other forms of equity. This means the price you lay to the opponent can go down as well. Your bluffs don't have to cost this much and your value wants to be called.

    Instead of focusing on these two factors, you overrepresent this hand with a large bet. This allows your opponent to put you into a spot with even just a min-raise. Something has gone wrong: we have blown up the pot where somehow now 150 bbs might go in without even seeing a turn card.

    Even so all this might be okay with a select few hands, and in fact, there is a counter-argument that AJo is great raise pre, but let's set all that aside and just focus on your holding and its interaction on this board: Ajo has showdown value here. It's beating some aces and is ahead of draws. It turns out, this isn't actually a particularly strong hand - it's a somewhere in the middle of your value hands. Not only can it be dead on the flop, it might be drawing to the second best hand. Further, when it makes its flush, which flushes can it value bet against?

    So the series of investments in the pot so far has been disproportionate to the equity this hand has, at every decision point. Launching it all in is just one more step of overplay. So "where was the mistake?" -it was potentially at every action that got you here. Correcting the thought process that led to these actions will have infinitely better return than worrying about how your player pool is playing.
  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 318 ✭✭✭
    BTN had previously shown down two or three all-ins where he proved to be loose himself (one of them he hit top pair with K7o and went all in against a two pair Q7o).

    I'm curious what board gives Q7 two pair, but K7 only top pair.
  • LexthenextLexthenext Red Chipper Posts: 21 ✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    I guess the question is where was the mistake?
    The way to not get stacked and to increase your WR in every spot is to focus on fundamental poker theory. That is going to help you "construct" the pot.

    Preflop, the BU has opened to 5x. There are several things to consider here. While AJo may be a fine 3b at 100 bbs or less, it will perform worse and worse as you reach depth because it lacks playability. It will generally flop a reasonable pair but not improve beyond that. So it starts to become less a slam dunk raise and instead needs to be folded from time to time - and that is versus a standard open size.

    At 5x, if we assume our opponent is raising hands that make sense at this size, the range that continues against this price starts to become smaller and smaller proportionally. You can imagine this process as his opening size risks more and more - if he moves all in preflop, the hands that need to call him are basically the nuts.

    So this pot gets off to a questionable start, but then more EV is lost on the flop. In a pot that has been re-raised, stronger ranges have arrived. This means the difference in equity between the ranges has likely grown closer, and the quality of that equity, including its nut making ability, has increased. Laying a very large price such as you have begins to fold out the hands you want action from, and to assure that you get action from the ones you don't.

    Further, you are betting on a monotone flop, one of the least likely flops to hit the board. Fewer hands are able to continue given only a quarter of the deck really interacts with the board well, focused on a few top clubs, as well as hands that have flopped very strong other forms of equity. This means the price you lay to the opponent can go down as well. Your bluffs don't have to cost this much and your value wants to be called.

    Instead of focusing on these two factors, you overrepresent this hand with a large bet. This allows your opponent to put you into a spot with even just a min-raise. Something has gone wrong: we have blown up the pot where somehow now 150 bbs might go in without even seeing a turn card.

    Even so all this might be okay with a select few hands, and in fact, there is a counter-argument that AJo is great raise pre, but let's set all that aside and just focus on your holding and its interaction on this board: Ajo has showdown value here. It's beating some aces and is ahead of draws. It turns out, this isn't actually a particularly strong hand - it's a somewhere in the middle of your value hands. Not only can it be dead on the flop, it might be drawing to the second best hand. Further, when it makes its flush, which flushes can it value bet against?

    So the series of investments in the pot so far has been disproportionate to the equity this hand has, at every decision point. Launching it all in is just one more step of overplay. So "where was the mistake?" -it was potentially at every action that got you here. Correcting the thought process that led to these actions will have infinitely better return than worrying about how your player pool is playing.

    Wow. This was a very insightful and well written response. I’m just someone reading through the comments but I just wanted to say thank you for putting so much time and effort into your response. I’m sure OP will greatly benefit from this constructive feedback!

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