Is my Estimated EV for River a reasonable assumption?

MikeCarroll_1961

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 117.5 BB
UTG: 43.5 BB
CO: 221.5 BB
Hero (BTN): 132.5 BB
SB: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:diamond: J:heart:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) T:spade: 6:diamond: K:spade:
SB checks, Hero bets 3.5 BB, SB calls 3.5 BB

Turn: (14 BB, 2 players) J:club:
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (14 BB, 2 players) 3:diamond:
SB bets 7 BB, Hero calls 7 BB

SB wins 27 BB



In real time i made an approx estimation that my EV was about 50/50, so with that assumption was this a reasonable call on the river or was it spewy ?

TheGameKat

Gotcha. So to improve your real-time maths, I think a useful off-table exercise here would be to assign V a range that you trim on each street and see how close your estimate of 50% equity is to that deeper analysis.

TheGameKat

How did you arrive at the conclusion that you were 50% to win? And is that even what you mean when you say you estimated your EV was 50/50? You need 25% equity for a breakeven call here.

MikeCarroll_1961

I put Villain on a wide range at river that included ATos+ TT+ some missed flush draws and as i am not very experienced at working out combos in real time, it was my best estimate of how villain range vs my hand EV would be. I need to work on real time maths. So if my read was correct then it was an ok call if i need 25% equity. Thanks for your input.

Red

MikeCarroll_1961 wrote: »

I put Villain on a wide range at river that included ATos+ TT+ some missed flush draws .

Because of the overcards, V (NL2) is never betting TX or even JX on this board.
Also V has not QQ+, except if very passive (you can see that in his 3bet freq)
Finally it's rare that a V would bluff busted FD ; at this stake, they rarely do. (NB: his river AF might be a useful stat too)
Without much info, I'd put V on mostly sets, 2P and TP; plus sometimes straights. A range AJ is doing poorly. You need him to bluff quite frequently - which bad Villains at this stake don't do - for your to be +EV.

To improve:
- Put V on a when he calls pre.
- Based on preflop range, keep only the combos which will x/c (= combos which don't c-r and don't fold).
- Based on flop range, which are the ones stabbing river for value?
- Based on this value stab, how many combos (bluff or worst than AJ) V has to bet for your to call +EV (aka having a 25+% equity) ? Now are these combos possible / coherent with V profile? If yes, you shall call ; if not, easy fold.

**
Last but not least: Online, you play a lot of hands. So even if your call might be (barely) +EV - that V is bluffing enough time for you to bluff catch (which I still strongly doubt), I think you should fold.
You will have many better opportunities to put your money in the middle.

MikeCarroll_1961

Thank you Red some useful points you raise.