Bet Sizing on Turn

MikeCarroll_1961MikeCarroll_1961 Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
My question here is was the all in overbet on turn with this board a reasonable play or should i have bet smaller?
PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 42 BB
CO: 74 BB
Hero (BTN): 249.5 BB
SB: 123.5 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 128 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9:club: 9:diamond:

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 5 BB

Flop: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 3:spade: T:spade: J:club:
CO checks, Hero bets 8.5 BB, CO calls 8.5 BB

Turn: (34.5 BB, 2 players) 9:spade:
CO checks, Hero bets 58 BB, CO calls 57.5 BB and is all-in

River: (149.5 BB, 2 players) K:diamond:

CO wins 144.5 BB

Comments

  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My question here is was the all in overbet on turn with this board a reasonable play or should i have bet smaller?
    tl;dr: Not only on turn, but also on flop and preflop. You overplayed your hand in every street and got punished.

    ** Details **
    Pre: 99 is not a hand you want to 3bet. Ok, few times, but very uncommonly. And especially not against someone with only 77BB (= easier to play for stakes , but 99 is too weak to like it that much).

    Flop: the board is well connected and has a ton of draws. So it's easy for V to have connected with it; which will be with hands ahead of 99 or with good to great equity (= little FE ; little value). Plus 99 doesn't block any value hand, only (bad) draws 98 ; meaning it's a bad combo to bluff with. Too weak to bet for value, too strong to bet for bluff; easy check for SDV.

    Turn: Well you hit... but so did the :SPADE: FD and OESD KQ. 99 seems strong, yet it's middling weak considering how many better hand you - and Villain - can have now. An overbet-shove is greatly polarizing your hand ; it will be +EV only if V is a calling station (yet if V is a calling station, raising pre and betting flop are bigger mistakes), otherwise - aka in almost all situation - you're going to get called only by better hand.
  • MikeCarroll_1961MikeCarroll_1961 Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    99 is a 3 bet according to the core ranges vs co so i cant agree that it was overplayed pre flop or on flop unless you are saying that the core ranges are wrong .

    it is the turn bet size that i am asking about as i as it turned out i had correctly read the player to be holding AsX and was looking for a flush draw but he also had a Q to give him a gutshot as well, either way i was ahead. it is not about him hitting the river that happens, but about my turn bet sizing. Would i have kept in other hands in i was ahead of apart from draws with a smaller turn bet and would that have been better EV play?.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 10
    99 is a 3 bet according to the core ranges vs co so i cant agree that it was overplayed pre flop or on flop unless you are saying that the core ranges are wrong
    I don't know the core range (Edit: bc no access to them), so I can't judge or compare them. Yet I'd expect them to be in a 100bb deep game. Here it's a 77bb deep game, which change the set-up: don't play the same ranges at different stake depth!

    Also V only has 77bb, meaning that he is very probably a bad player. As you gave 0 info on him (don't you use a HUD with PT4??), I would keep going with the assumption of someone playing too many hands and calling too often (basic micro-stakes fish).
    Sure, 99 is preflop still ahead of a broadway-heavy range, yet it's raw equity; it will be hard to realize our equity (and still 99 will lose a fair amount of time too).

    Both these arguments are, IMHO, in favor of playing value-heavy. Aka having a linear 3bet range with hands ahead or even dominating V's range. This can be mixed with some hands with low equity but good potential like 64s or A2s, which happily take a fold.

    99 is so too weak here to be played for value all along, yet it's too strong to raise as bluff. Too strong to fold too. Hence 99 is a good call. Also without a strong equity advantage against someone calling too often, I think it's better to keep to pot small.
    99 can (shall) be raise, so you can hit set of 9 when you 3bet too - but only as an uncommon 3bet.
  • MikeCarroll_1961MikeCarroll_1961 Red Chipper Posts: 13 ✭✭
    Ok thank you Red. The 6 max core strategy is 3 bet orientated, hence why i 3 bet, but you are correct it is 100bb related which i had forgotten to take into account. so again thanks for your feedback it does help me learn.

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