NL10 Missed street of value?

Chris_VChris_V BoiseRed Chipper Posts: 85 ✭✭
I thought this was an easy one, just checking if my head's straight now. The reason Hero's stack is a bit low is because right before this hand Hero got AA cracked when same Villain 5-Bet shoved preflop with 5s5h against Hero and made a flush on the River. I believe Hero was gun-shy after that and after this hand left the game for a break.

In hindsight against anonymous 10NL Villain on this board I believe Hero should have bet Turn, Bet River around half pot each street. At the time Hero felt this Villain was aggressive and could be goaded into bluffing Turn. GTO+ suggests all of my second guessing is incorrect.

Given what I thought the players Ranges would look like after the flop checked though GTO+ suggests OOP should check Range, then Bet River exactly like Hero played it.

What am I missing here? Am I thinking Hero should be way too aggressive in this spot? Is this hand is not worth 2 streets of value with turn double suited and putting a middle pair on the board that Villain may call with?

$0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 93.8 BB
BB: 44.3 BB
Hero (CO): 66.3 BB
BTN: 192 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:heart: Q:spade:

Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 4:club: 5:club: A:spade:
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (7.5 BB, 2 players) J:spade:
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 5:diamond:
Hero bets 3.6 BB, BTN calls 3.6 BB

Hero shows Q:heart: Q:spade: (Two Pair, Queens and Fives)

Hero wins 14 BB


  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 4,257 -
    You asked the critical question, which is how many streets of value can you get here. What solvers can't tell you is whether passivity triggers a given opponent's betting reflex.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • flexurmind83flexurmind83 Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
    Hi there.

    Like the check OOP OTF because altought there is some draws, not a bunch of them, and you would make fold worse hands like 77-TT.

    OTT though i would bet, more FD came up, more Jx hands in his range, i would bet around 1/2 pot.

    The card OTR doenst change Villains range, if he has an A he beat us, if he has a Jx or some middle pair he loses, so might as well bet small so that hands can call, around 1/3 Pot. I would fold to a raise tho.

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