How long can this go on ??

Hotsteppa

Im super embaresed to post this, but im not spending another day sobbing at the end of my bed, lol. I used to laugh at people complaining about bad beats and downswings, saying "its rigged". Id had a few small downswings, they wasnt easy, but i coped fine. Since I bought HM3, ive played 115k hands, and built my whole bankroll from $20. Id consistantly won at around 16bb per 100 hands at nl2,5 and 10. Mainly NL10 as I moved up when I could. At 100k hands it was great, now by 112k hands Ive basically lost half my bankroll and am having to move down to NL5. It just wont end!! I cant remember the last bluff that got through, AA is sucessfull hand if i only loose half my stack. I could go on , but im sure you all know the spots, endless Science defying suckouts. I can vaguely remember that I used to win poker hands, I think?. I need a bit off support, how long can this go on? What sort of downswings have winning players experienced? For the first time ever im starting to doubt if I can do this.

Red

Your situation could be normal and you just didn't have enough buy-in for your previous stakes. (How many NL10 buy-ins have you lost? If it's less than 10BI, it was nothing; less than 30BI is a basic downswing.)

Your situation could be just a very bad downswing.

Your situation could be just going to your natural state and you face the "correction" of a previous great upswing.

Your situation could be the result of bad plays (for example overplaying your hand like in this HH your posted), plays not adapted to your Villain /pool or Villains just being better than you.

**
Probably now is a good time to dig deep into your poker database and analyze your hands to see why you lose that much / regularly, which mistake did you make and how to correct them.

What's the difference between a good player and a bad player? The good player spend more time studying the game than playing the game.

Hotsteppa

Poker is an arrogant game in that everyone thinks they know best. I tell myself everyday that people out there know far more. This shows. It started off as run bad, though I for sure made more and more mistakes. Its only 12 buy ins at NL10, though it felt like watching my dreams crumble, lol. Im still rolled to play at NL10. One big leak was table selection, I lost alot sitting early in the morning convincing myself that "surely this super nit has some bluffs". And yeah, some are obviously good enough to own me lol. Again thanks, I just needed to hear some reasurance. No one is gonna give this to me, I just have to keep working.

TheGameKat

I'd suggest that, even if your intrinsic win rate at these limits is in the top 5% of the player pool, you can expect a 12BI downswing multiple times a year, the details depending of course on volume.

Hotsteppa

Thanks, its all a learning process. I knew in the back of my mind that it could get bad, its just shocking to watch. Math defiying. Im writing down every lesson I learn from this. Ive for sure seen tilt get me in ways I thought id had control over. I was planning to become an anti-fish Hit man at one point. enough rabbiting on, thank you, back to it .

TheGameKat

Actually, it's completely consistent with the math. That was my point.

Red

Hotsteppa wrote: »

Thanks, its all a learning process. I knew in the back of my mind that it could get bad, its just shocking to watch. Math defiying. Im writing down every lesson I learn from this. Ive for sure seen tilt get me in ways I thought id had control over. I was planning to become an anti-fish Hit man at one point. enough rabbiting on, thank you, back to it .

You have a mental leak.

-12 BI is a totally normal situation ; in fact, I'd barely called it a downswing.

If you're not able to brace for a -12BI loss, you won't be able to face a real downswing.

Also if you're in such a terrible mental state off-table (when writing on the forum) after so little losses, I can only image how badly you may react in-game. Meaning you're probably easily tilted (or at least off your A-game) and bleed chips.

Hotsteppa

I understand im exagerating here. Thouhg it was tough for me to build it up from $20 to start to see it drift away. And yes, ive recognised a few mental leaks through this. And I would have lost much more a year ago, next time round ill work on loosing less. And Math defying is watching 6 80% equity all ins in a row loose, whats odds on that? And I checked this, I lost 18 of 21 last AA hands and 19 of 24 KK , and only learning stopped me from loosing more in each pot. I gather you will probably think I sound fishy bringing this up, but remember you where once here. I really appreciate all feedback you give me, so thanks again.

TheGameKat

I'd suggest ignoring the AIs and focusing on the losses with AA and KK that went postflop. Also recognize that the more you play, the more low-probability events you'll experience. In a complete vacuum, losing six 80/20s in a row is a rare event. In the context of hundreds of thousands of hands of poker, it's a near inevitability.

kenaces

A 12 buy-in downswing for online 6m is nothing to worry about. Instead of wasting time on this line of thought work on getting better at poker as this is literally the only thing you can do that matters.

Micski

It is unclear, if he means, that he is 12 buy-ins below his all-in expected value? I am not sure, if that could happen several times during a year, which was mentioned among the replies. That's not my experience, when looking at 8 years of cashgame data. However. It happened, and actually worse, to me during just 30k hands at fullring NL100 at PokerStars this month and I have not tracked that before. Combined with the lowest rakeback ever, a 4 table limit, and higher player pool aggression, it is a frustrating situation, that could take years for variance to meet the green line again.