Population 4 Bet Stats

IAmTheCloudPoker

I'm trying to get a grip on exactly what my population is 4 betting with. To do this, I've taken the average PFR and multiplied it by the average 4 bet preflop stat. For my population it comes to 15.86 PFR and a 4 betting %, of 5.72%. Multiplying one by the other gives me 0.90% (almost exactly AA/KK range).
A similar calculation on the best regs gave me 1.26%, which adds QQ or AKs onto the range.

I have 2 questions.
1) Is this the best method of working out this 4 betting range?
2) If correct, to take advantage of the situation, if 4 betting is so tight, I'd want to be 4 betting wider myself, but only really playing back at 4/5-bets with KK+ myself?

TheGameKat

That sounds like a sensible analysis. You could also look at which hands that were 4-bet pre made it to showdown, but that can introduce a sample bias. Probably a relatively small one, though.

It's possible that this might be a license to open up your 4-bet range as an exploit, but it probably depends on how aware the population is that this pool is 4-betting so tight. I'd suggest what may be a more direct approach is to look at the 3b/fold stats if they're accessible.

One final issue that Doug Hull would likely throw out there. One has to be a bit careful with averages, lest one conclude American women are, on average, 5% pregnant.

Hotsteppa

I dont know if you worked out the 4 bet range in the same way HM3 does, though it sounds like it. I dont know what level you play but at NL10 hardly anyone has a 4 bet range of even 2. I recently wrote a post about a 4 bet spot as ive found that even 4 betting QQ at this level tightens villains continue range so much that QQ ends up in a bad spot often. My 4 bet range was 3.2, and that was me making an effort to 4 bet more, even with pocket 10s and AQoff. You are for sure right about the range being super tight at this level.

IAmTheCloudPoker

Thanks for your input both.

I'll take a look at those 3-bet/fold stats, guess that could be incredibly useful, and yeah, I guess I'm using the averages as a base-line and working from there.

My 4 bet stats are lower than that, currently 2.16, so I guess I'm over nitty myself - although still that much wider than the level. It seems AK/AKs is a regular call at NL2/5/10, as opposed to a 3-bet/4-bet.

TheGameKat

Whether you're too nitty with your 4-bet range depends sensitively on this issue of the typical 3-bet/fold stats. To give a crude example, if the typical player 3-bet/folds 50% of the time, the pot overlay suggests you should be pounding on these people mercilessly. Suited A-wheel hands become automatic 4-bets, for example. On the other hand, if their 3-bet ranges are tight enough that they don't like folding once they've 3-bet, a tight and top-end only 4-bet range may be appropriate.

IAmTheCloudPoker

That's great advice. That wasn't something that went through my thought process, it was more about my own hand strength in those spots. I think you've just added a BB/100 or 2 to my game.

Red

In my experience at NL10 ; 3bet are rare. If so, then I don't think you should even have a 4bet range. Even hands like KK or AA are fine call as V is entitle to bet into you.

Only if Villains start to 3bet wide-ish, you could develop a 4-bet strategy as we now have enough room to either play postflop (V calling too wide) or to have enough preflop FE.

Chris_V

Red wrote: »

In my experience at NL10 ; 3bet are rare. If so, then I don't think you should even have a 4bet range. Even hands like KK or AA are fine call as V is entitle to bet into you.

Only if Villains start to 3bet wide-ish, you could develop a 4-bet strategy as we now have enough room to either play postflop (V calling too wide) or to have enough preflop FE.

I'm just starting to loosen up my 3-betting range and I've noticed my player pool at 10 and 5NL 6-max 3-bet twice as often as full ring (6% vs 3%).

Because I play anonymous tables I can look up hand histories and find out what players 4-bet with even when the hands didn't make it to the river. At 10NL 6-max the last six 4-Bet hands that were played had AA, KK, KK, AdTd, AJo, and KJo. Players are 4 betting much wider than I would have thought in these games.

I was looking for an exploit of over folding to 4-Bets but from these histories it looks like that would be a mistake.

Hotsteppa

everyone has there own strategy and opinion. I play NL5 and 10. mainly 10, and I 3 bet relentlessly. If less people limped , id be 3 betting more, though I iso raise them with anything playable. And as I said I 4 bet higher than the player pool. And for me its great! Id rather 4 bet fold a hand like AQof than call 3 bet oop. Even if the Vill is tight id rather 3 bet to get it heads up in poss. Yes, you really dont need much of a 4bet bluff range against 95% of players at this level, keep that tight, but 3 bet as much as possible. Then again, its what works for your strategy.

IAmTheCloudPoker

Brilliant advice everyone, thank you. I'm just working through Core, and 3/4 betting pre is an area that I'm working on hard. Feeling more confident in those spots already.