Facing Bets - Using "The Checklist" to Review Hand Histories

JamesTheG1antJamesTheG1ant Los Angeles, CARed Chipper Posts: 51 ✭✭
Hi,

While working through the Core 2.0 lesson material, in the "Facing Bets" section, SplitSuit asks us to examine three hands using "the Checklist". While working through one of the hands, I ran into the following question regarding determining the EV of a raise (see question in red below). I'll also take any advice on how to improve my overall analysis.

Ignition - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 138.44 BB
CO: 102.8 BB
BTN: 87.32 BB
SB: 198.8 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) BTN has :Ac:QS:

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has :Ad:9c

fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) :6s:Ah:6c
Hero checks, BTN bets 3.04 BB, Hero calls 3.04 BB

Turn: (12.48 BB, 2 players) :7H:
Hero checks, BTN bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

River: (20.48 BB, 2 players) :TC:
Hero checks, BTN bets 5 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

BTN shows :Ac:QS: (Two Pair, Aces and Sixes)

BTN wins 28.96 BB

The Checklist:
  1. What pot odds are you getting?
    Flop: 3:1 (need 25% equity to call)
    Turn: 4:1 (20%)
    River: 5:1 (16%)
  2. Are there other players left to act?
    N/A
  3. What did your opponent bet with here?
    • Preflop range: AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o,76o,AKs-A7s,A5s-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q2s,JTs-J2s,T9s-T2s,98s-92s,87s-82s,76s-72s,65s-62s,54s-52s,43s-42s,32s
    • Flop range: Assume V cbets 100% (preflop range = flop range)
    • Turn range: AA,77-66,AKo-A8o,A6o-A2o,T9o-T8o,98o,76o,AKs-A8s,A5s-A2s,K6s,Q6s,J6s,T9s-T8s,T6s,98s,96s-95s,86s-84s,76s,65s-62s,54s-53s,43s,KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,Kh9h,Kh8h,Kh5h,Kh4h,Kh3h,Kh2h,QhJh,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,Qh5h,Qh4h,Qh3h,Qh2h,JhTh,Jh9h,Jh8h,Jh5h,Jh4h,Jh3h,Jh2h,Th5h,Th4h,Th3h,Th2h,9h4h,9h3h,9h2h,8h3h,8h2h,5h2h,4h2h,3h2h
    • River range: AA,77-66,AKo-A8o,A6o-A2o,98o,76o,AKs-A8s,A5s-A2s,K6s,Q6s,J6s,T6s,98s,96s,86s,76s,65s-62s
  4. How does your hand do against their range?
    On the flop, our hand has 83% equity vs V’s range.
    On the turn, our hand has 55% equity vs V’s range.
    On the river, our hand has 15% equity vs V’s range.
  5. What is the EV if you raise?
    • If we check-raise to 25BB, the BE% is 36%
    • It’s possible V would fold a good chunk of his top pair hands here
    • I assumed V would fold all top pairs hands except AQ & AK, which is 42 of the 106 combos (40%) of V’s range that make it to the river
    • A raise to 25BB appears to be +EV because V folds more than the BE%
    • How do we calculate the EV of a raise here?
  6. What is the EV if you call?
    EV=($W*%W)-($L*%L), $W = 30BB, %W = 16%, $L = 5BB, %L = 84%
    EV=(30BB*.16)-(5BB*.84)
    EV=4.8BB-4.2BB
    EV=0.6BB
Summary: Hero made a +EV play, albeit a small one, by calling the river bet. Since the EV of a call is positive, we know folding can be eliminated as an option. Now we must compare the EV of a call against the EV of a raise to determine the best (highest EV) option.

Thanks,
JamesTheG1ant

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 5,118 -
    Essentially you calculate the amount won when you raise (the pot) and the amount you lose (your bet), multiplying the former by the % folds you expect and modifying the latter based on your equity when called.
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  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 5,118 -
    edited February 19
    However, if I'm following your reasoning correctly, our equity when called is zero? Hence the breakeven % is not 36%.

    The other thing to note is that in your line of raising to 25bb, there's still money left to play. The possibility you get jammed on greatly reduces the equity of the play.
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  • JamesTheG1antJamesTheG1ant Los Angeles, CARed Chipper Posts: 51 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    However, if I'm following your reasoning correctly, our equity when called is zero? Hence the breakeven % is not 36%.

    The other thing to note is that in your line of raising to 25bb, there's still money left to play. The possibility you get jammed on greatly reduces the equity of the play.

    I used the fold equity calculator for this number. If the calculator is only valid for shoves then the 36% is not correct.

    I'm currently only at Level 2 in Core 2.0 (just finished the "Facing Bets" lesson). Will there be specific lesson on Breakeven % later, which I haven't gotten to yet?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 5,118 -
    Breakeven crops up in a lot of contexts, yes. The thing to always remember is if there is money left to play or your opponent has the option to play back, that needs to be taken into account when you're doing EV calculations. It basically just adds another branch in the outcome tree that you have to calculate.

    But even if we ignore that in your example and assume villain never reraises, when you put in the "equity when called" into our calculator, I believe in your example it should be 0%.

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