Validation to keep playing

Deedrick

I have played a total of 6000 hands during the last 2 weeks in 25NL on GGPoker. Before this I have played on pokerstars for several years with a total win slightly positive (30000 recorded). During these 6000 hands I have a winrate of about -50BB/100 and I am getting to a point where I am seriously starting to doubt my skill level. I have always taken poker seriously and am currently going through CORE. I have tried to validate this run by the fact that the 6000 hands include as an example the following stats:
Hole Cards - Number of times dealt - Total winnings (before rake)
AA - 23 - -$1,66
KK - 27 - -$39.42
QQ - 24 - -$15.67
AKs - 24 - -$12,82
AKo - 50 - -$50.39

This gives me a total winnings before rake of -$119,96 over 148 hands giving a winrate of -3,24BB/hand with the range QQ+, AK. I don't know the numbers for average winrates with certain holecard but I would guess that this range would average atleast 2BB/hand.

I feel I now need someone to tell me that I am not a terrible player just simply running awful.

kenaces

I would suggest you review all those QQ+/AK hands to start with. Are you a pay-off wizard? Are you missing value bets? Too passive with the top of your range? overplaying TP/OP?

Ritter422

Yes, I'd drill into some of those hands and break down how you feel about your choices on each street.

It took me a LONG time to acknowledge to myself that I had a tendency to over-value my pretty pairs when the action clearly was telling me that a single pair was not good.

I'm not saying YOU'RE doing that - just identifying a leak I had to plug for myself and encouraging you to look deeper than your results.

Cheers,

Ritter

Cosmas

Sorry if I shouldn't be posting here. I am not sure what Forum etiquette requires when posting on someone elses post. I read Deedrick's post and feel that I too am in the same position. I have not played as many hands online as that, nor at that stake, but I have been playing live cash and tourneys for many years, as well as dabble in Online games.

I'm not sure that validation is what I am looking for. I understand that I am going to loose to someone that goes all in with 83o against my pocket Aces. Pre Flop I might add. I know that if 2 hearts are on the flop one of the limpers/raisers/callers has 2 in their hand and the fifth one is going to hit on the river. You know that sitting at a table with a lot of fish they are going to catch all night and we sit there, watching our range, playing smart and getting crushed by lady luck.

I guess what I am looking for is reassurance that luck is not such a major factor and that dedication to smart play is going to win the day in the long run.

blindraise

Define the long run and you will have your answer.

TheGameKat

I imagine someone has demonstrated through simulation that good play beats bad play. And if they haven't, I see a project for @Doug Hull

Cosmas

Is there a way to run simulations with a given variance adjustment? Not sure if you have ever played on Advanced Poker Training site (I believe Mr. Hull has) they added that wonderful "All In Luck" rating? I heard that you can get up to 4 Green Clover Leaves. For what ever reason I seem to get this Black Cat silhouette all the time.

Kidding somewhat. I do get that blasted black cat a lot. I believe my average is higher than it should be because I am trying different types of play when I am on that site because I can test without losing real money.

I do get disappointed when I make a play that I believe is right, my APT coach believes is right and I still end up losing.