Hand Review and Analysis - Fold Equity and Bluff Shoving the River

JamesTheG1antJamesTheG1ant Los Angeles, CARed Chipper Posts: 51 ✭✭
The following is a hand I played online. I'm looking for someone to verify my logic related to shoving the river as a potential improvement to the line taken in this hand. This logic is detailed in red below.

Ignition - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BB: $25.00
UTG: $32.43
MP: $57.61
Hero (CO): $25.94
BTN: $31.14
SB: $26.15

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop:
(pot: $0.35) Hero has :KH::QC:
fold, MP raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, fold, fold, fold, MP calls $1.50
Notes & Questions:
  • Hero 3bet range and sizing is OK.
  • V preflop range: (9.2%) JJ-66,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s
Flop:
($4.85, 2 players) :KC::2D::JC:
MP checks, Hero bets $2.00, MP calls $2.00
Notes & Questions:
  • Type 1 flop but is dynamic due to straight and flush draws. May consider using larger cbet size on similar flops in the future.
  • I assume V will fold his weak pairs lower than a J. Therefore V flop range: (58.6%) JJ,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c
Turn:
($8.85, 2 players) :AS:
MP checks, Hero checks
Notes & Questions:
  • I assume V will check his entire range on the turn. Since Hero checks back, I assume V’s turn range = V’s flop range. Therefore, V turn range: (100%) JJ,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c
River:
($8.85, 2 players) :QS:
MP bets $3.00, Hero calls $3.00
Notes & Questions:
  • I assume V only bets two-pair+ on the river. Therefore, V river range: (93.2%) JJ,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,Ac2c
  • Is it too risky to assume V will use a bigger river bet size if he has a straight? If we can assume V does not have a straight based on his river bet size, we can consider turning our hand into a bluff on the river.
  • Based on the FE calculator, we break even if V folds 64% to our river shove. The values inputted into the calculator are as follows:
    Pot Size before you shove = $12
    How much do you have to call? = $3
    How much are you shoving total? = $21
    Estimated percent equity when called? = 0% (I assume V only calls our river shove with a straight)
  • Based on his river range, he only has a straight 32% of the time. Therefore, he will fold to our shove 68% of the time, which makes this a +EV play. Since we know calling is -EV and folding is always 0 EV, bluffing the river is the best line in this scenario.
  • However, it is important to note that if we think V calls our river shove wider than straights only (i.e. V calls with sets or better two-pairs), our river bluff becomes -EV, which means folding is the best line.
MP shows :QH::AH: (Two Pair, Aces and Queens)

MP wins $14.11

Thanks,
James

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 5,220 -
    I think the critical point here is whether you can infer V has a straight based purely on river sizing, and to me the answer is a clear "no". With that in mind, your hand works better as a bluff catcher than a bluff.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • CriminalBizzyCriminalBizzy Las VegasRed Chipper Posts: 101 ✭✭
    I agree with @TheGameKat that your hand works best as a bluff catcher. Your hand has some equity and when you decide to bluff its better to buff with air than it is with a hand that has some equity.

    Going back to the turn check, that doesn't make sense for 100% of their range. In my opinion hands like AT, JT, or AJ don't really want to let you get there for free. They are going to be incentivized to make some sort of bet. A lot of the king hands may also want to bet on the turn. QT is another one, they want to protect against the front door flush getting there. I think Villain has a lot of reasons to bet.

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