# Hand Review and Analysis - Fold Equity and Bluff Shoving the River

Los Angeles, CARed Chipper Posts: 51 ✭✭
The following is a hand I played online. I'm looking for someone to verify my logic related to shoving the river as a potential improvement to the line taken in this hand. This logic is detailed in red below.

Ignition - \$0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BB: \$25.00
UTG: \$32.43
MP: \$57.61
Hero (CO): \$25.94
BTN: \$31.14
SB: \$26.15

SB posts SB \$0.10, BB posts BB \$0.25

Pre Flop:
(pot: \$0.35) Hero has
fold, MP raises to \$0.75, Hero raises to \$2.25, fold, fold, fold, MP calls \$1.50
Notes & Questions:
• Hero 3bet range and sizing is OK.
• V preflop range: (9.2%) JJ-66,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s
Flop:
(\$4.85, 2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets \$2.00, MP calls \$2.00
Notes & Questions:
• Type 1 flop but is dynamic due to straight and flush draws. May consider using larger cbet size on similar flops in the future.
• I assume V will fold his weak pairs lower than a J. Therefore V flop range: (58.6%) JJ,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c
Turn:
(\$8.85, 2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks
Notes & Questions:
• I assume V will check his entire range on the turn. Since Hero checks back, I assume V’s turn range = V’s flop range. Therefore, V turn range: (100%) JJ,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c
River:
(\$8.85, 2 players)
MP bets \$3.00, Hero calls \$3.00
Notes & Questions:
• I assume V only bets two-pair+ on the river. Therefore, V river range: (93.2%) JJ,AQo-AJo,KQo,AQs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,Ac2c
• Is it too risky to assume V will use a bigger river bet size if he has a straight? If we can assume V does not have a straight based on his river bet size, we can consider turning our hand into a bluff on the river.
• Based on the FE calculator, we break even if V folds 64% to our river shove. The values inputted into the calculator are as follows:
Pot Size before you shove = \$12
How much do you have to call? = \$3
How much are you shoving total? = \$21
Estimated percent equity when called? = 0% (I assume V only calls our river shove with a straight)
• Based on his river range, he only has a straight 32% of the time. Therefore, he will fold to our shove 68% of the time, which makes this a +EV play. Since we know calling is -EV and folding is always 0 EV, bluffing the river is the best line in this scenario.
• However, it is important to note that if we think V calls our river shove wider than straights only (i.e. V calls with sets or better two-pairs), our river bluff becomes -EV, which means folding is the best line.
MP shows (Two Pair, Aces and Queens)

MP wins \$14.11

Thanks,
James