Fold AKs Preflop against unknown Player?

sportlasportla Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
edited March 27 in Live Poker Hands
Should you fold AKs preflop against an unknown player (unknown TAG)? - Yesterday I received AKs in a new poker round ($ 2 / $ 2 - yes, a bit unusual, but they only play without $ 1). There is a limp and the BU opens to $ 16. I 3-bet $ 64 with exactly $ 200 left. The BB jams and sets me AI. He is in his mid-20s and didn't notice him in the first hour at the table, until then, would classify him as an unknown TAG. I folded and then calculated that it was extremely tight. He shows QQ after the fold. (In retrospect, it was more like a loose TAG, you can't know yet).

$ 2 / $ 2
1 limp
BU (unknown TAG, 25 years old, $ 300) OR $16
Hero ($ 264) SB AKs 3B $64
Action Folds to BU
AI effective $200

BE 200/200 + 286 = 200/486 = 41%

Range A
AA-QQ, AKo, AKs
Equity: 42%: 58%, + EV $4 (CALL ??)

Range B (expected in this kind of game)
KK+
Equity: 23%:77%

Reality
QQ
Equity: 46%:54%

Comments

  • Noobman123Noobman123 Red Chipper Posts: 136 ✭✭
    Is it common for players in live to jam without a 4 bet? Seems like there were still 100bb stacks
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,877 -
    Noobman123 wrote: »
    Is it common for players in live to jam without a 4 bet? Seems like there were still 100bb stacks

    The hand was shortened by the massive original open, hence 4-bet sizing AI is natural.

    @sportla you've identified the critical issue. What is the preflop AI range at this depth in this game? That varies from game to game. Online at 100bb you're typically happy to get AI with AK, although that is less true at microstakes. With the stronger live ranges and deeper stacks, I think it's more marginal.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • StrainJPStrainJP Red Chipper Posts: 31 ✭✭
    What is a loose TAG? Without the all in, I would say these 4bet ranges are a little snug for live poker, but agree that the all in narrows things a bit. Someone at the table for an hour that you don’t notice may be on the nittier side as well. I don’t think I am folding unless I have a solid read in this case.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file