Folding Bottom Set ($16NL) - mistake?

Doogal_DDoogal_D Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
I'm wondering if I was being paranoid or if I made a correct fold in this situation on the Flop. And, of course, if any of my other actions were incorrect in your eyes, let me know.
Constructive criticism encouraged. Harsh criticism reluctantly welcome. Bashing will be accepted, but feel free to at least throw in a nugget of actual advice.

1. Background
$16NL
8-Handed
Hero is new to table (VPIP & PFR are 3/15 hands)

Villain 1 stats
Hands: 17
VPIP: 41%
PFR: 6%

Villain 2 stats
Hands: 316
VPIP: 19%
PFR: 12%
RFI: 17%
Call PreFlop 2Bet: 14%
3Bet: 6%
*additional stats provided for Villain 2 only because I have >100 hand sample size on each of these stats

Stacks
UTG (46BB)
UTG+1 (85BB)
LJ: VILLAIN 1 (79BB)
HJ (103BB)
CO: VILLAIN 2 (104BB)
BTN (40BB)
SB (205BB)
BB: HERO (162.81BB)

2. Action
PREFLOP
UTG folds
UTG+1 folds
LJ (VILLAIN 1) raises to 2BB
HJ folds
CO (VILLAIN 2) calls 2BB
BTN: folds
SB: folds
BB (HERO) calls 2BB w/ :6C::6S:

FLOP Pot: 6.5BB
:KD::7S::6D:
HERO: checks
VILLAIN 1: checks
VILLAIN 2: Bets 3.13BB
HERO: Calls
VILLAIN 1: Raises to 6.25BB
VILLAIN 2: 3Bet Shoves
HERO: folds
VILLAIN 1: Calls

3. Thoughts
Obviously I was happy with that Flop, but that changed real quick. Everyone will have different views on what each Villains' ranges were, but my thoughts in the moment were:

Villain 1: Most likely had a good TP w/ a BDFD or better sets
Villain 2: Most likely a FD, but possibly a set of 7s or maybe some suited 2P (but most combos lean toward FD).

Given what appeared to be some passive play by both Villains, combined with the XR by Villain 1 and the Shove by Villain 2, I suspected I was likely beat by one of them and was fine just accepting it if I saw some FD and TPTK hands putting all the money in.

I'll post the results in the next few days, but looking forward to the feedback.
Tagged:

Comments

  • Chris_VChris_V BoiseRed Chipper Posts: 181 ✭✭
    edited April 25
    I did a super long analysis on this but I misread the action on the flop originally and thought is was a check, bet, call, check-raise all-in which made the ranges weaker than check, bet, call, check-raise,.. then shove.

    When Villain 2 - 3 bet shoves they know Villain 1 has a good made hand or draw and that we as the cold caller have something. I think this strengthens their shoving range
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 203 ✭✭
    This is tough but there are only two hands that beat you KK and 77. There aren't many combos of either. There are a lot more draws and Kx combos. Yes they can beat you by the river but they also might have a blocker effect on each other. I feel like this is a crying call unless you have a specific read. Also why didn't you raise on the flop? That would have made later decisions easier.
  • struckostrucko Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    Hi Doogal_D

    I will join ulysses27 on this one and ask myself what is the best action here on flop. I would lean towards donk bet here as the board is very draw heavy for the ranges this 2 villains have and it does seem like a good idea to charge them for their draws. The other option is to x/r flop. The way you played the hand it really hurts to fold or call there as the pot is small. But seeing action like this it looks like V2 just want's to get it in fast with the monster draw like 45s,89s or 2P 67. I don't think I would personally be able to find a fold button in your position and V1 looks like a weak player so he might be happy to call with some random FD or FD+P.

    Good luck !
  • Doogal_DDoogal_D Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Thanks for the feedback.

    @Chris_V: I was thinking the same thing: that the fact we cold-called means their shoving range is quite strong given Villain 1's re-raise.

    @ulysses27 & @strucko: Regarding my check on the Flop, I didn't donk out because it was 3-ways so I was thinking in about not wanting to get pushed off a set unless I saw super aggressive action. If I donked out, and got raised and re-raised, then I'm begrudgingly calling down the rest of the way (I want to avoid that situation if at all possible). I've listed my plan below for how I planned to react if the betting went a bit more "reasonably". That being said, given the action, the fact that Villain 2 (the one I had 300+ hands on) had played fairly tight and shoved 100BB into a pot of 19BB over a min-raise with me and Villain 1 left to act made me feel like they were pretty strong (especially since I had cold-called already). I know their value hands are only better sets, and they had bluffs on this board, but again, it's 3-ways so I have to imagine they're tightening up which bluffs they want to go for on this board. They'll have FDs and SDs, but are they doing this with all of them? Probably not. I don't know if they're even jamming 2P here --- not to mention I heavily block any K6, 76 combos, so maybe a SD w/ BDFD would bluff here but any BDFD/SD has a weak 1-card flush given there are 2 others in the pot. In addition, Villain 1 (who appeared passive, granted only over 17 hands) had raised, even if it was for the minimum. That felt like they were inducing to me, so I didn't feel like shoving 98BB on the hope that they were folding AND that Villain 2 was on a draw.

    One last thing I wanted to mention (and please tell me if this is incredibly flawed thinking) but I wanted to consider that while, yes, there are only KK and 77 that beat me here, that I needed to factor in that Villain 1 could have either of those hands, and Villain 2 could have 77 as well. I wanted to be cautious against the "if it's set over set, then so be it" mentality. I know people can be scared of monsters under the bed, and maybe that's what happened here, but I wanted to at least consider it before shoving my stack in.

    My plan for the Flop was:

    Situation 0
    Villain 1 checks; Villain 2 checks

    Situation 1
    Villain 1 bets; Villain 2 calls --> Hero raises

    Situation 2
    Villain 1 bets; Villain 2 raises --> Hero re-raises (intention to fold if both get all-in)

    Situation 3
    Villain 1 checks; Villain 2 bets --> Hero calls... (see below)

    Situation 3a
    Villain 1 checks; Villain 2 bets; Hero calls; Villain 1 calls

    Situation 3b
    Villain 1 checks; Villain 2 bets; Hero calls; Villain 1 raises...

    Situation 3b(i)
    Villain 1 checks; Villain 2 bets; Hero calls; Villain 1 raises; Villain 2 calls; Hero calls

    Situation 3b(ii)
    Villain 1 checks; Villain 2 bets; Hero calls; Villain 1 raises; Villain 2 reraises; Hero folds

    As you can see, we ended up in Scenario 3b(ii)
  • struckostrucko Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    @Doogal_D

    I don't thinks you should be afraid if you donked and face a raise and re raise you simply jam it over the top. Because donk bets will often induce bluffs so there will be even more weaker holding in your opponents range. Fact is that you flopped extremely strong hand and the only combos out there that beat you is KK and 77. If this was situation where you were all 250BB or more deep than yes you are never happy with bottom set and you won't get it in. But for 100BB stacks I think people are willing to get it in on that kind of board with many weaker hands. I've used equity calculator and put some hands in that would be plausible holdings for the villains.

    V1 > KK,77,AKs,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Td9d,9d8d,76s,5d4d,AKo
    V2 > 77,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Td9d,9d8d,8d7d,76s

    With this ranges you are still doing pretty good your equity is roughly 36% for V1 23% and V2 41%

    We dont know much about V1 but I think him having K7s or K6s is too wide. I tried to make some sense of what they could hold. Of course you do not have odds to call as it played out but I don't think your equity really matters in this spot you got one of the monsters the thing is that there are so many draws that this players could go crazy with that I just don't see how it would be ok to fold.
    Lets say if this was AT6 rainbow flop and same occurred than there is no strong draws just couple GS some 2P possible and sets.

    If anyone with the solver could run this hand it would be nice.
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 203 ✭✭
    My apologies I didn't mean donk bet. I meant you should re-raise. I don't usually recommend a donk bet because it's difficult to construct a donk betting range. K7 would be a donk betting hand as you block KK and 77 but can get called by draws and Kx hand. Unless you have a specific read on V2 it's hard to know if they would shove with a strong draw or not. I play against many tight players who do just that. The problem is that you are at the top of your range. If you are folding this what are you calling. There are boards where you would fold a set but I don't believe this is one of them. I'm interested in what the result was.
  • Doogal_DDoogal_D Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    Thanks for all your comments. I ran the equities in Equilab for what I thought the ranges were and it had me around 40% after the Flop action (when I was facing the shove), but given the odds (as @strucko said) I was a bit more okay that I folded. Not to say my play was good. Just that I was at least a bit more okay with the fold given that I only called the flop bet by Villain 2.

    Anyways, here's the result:

    Pot 163.87BB

    LJ (VILLAIN 1) :KH::KS:

    CO (VILLAIN 2) :AD::8D:

    TURN :6H:

    RIVER :AC:

    I wasn't second guessing myself because of the result; I had already tagged this hand for review once I called and it got min-raised. I just knew that this was a spot where I would benefit from getting other's views on what I could / should have done differently. I'll check back if any of you leave comments upon seeing the results. Again, greatly appreciate your thoughts and input! Cheers!
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 203 ✭✭
    Not sure where you're getting the idea that you don't have the odds to call V2 shove unless your figuring that V1 will call too but you don't know that in real time. Maybe my math is off but using the EV calculator tool on Red Chip. Calling is positive by 32bb. That's based on the 40% equity you assigned. Your equity might be higher against V2 as they can only hold 77 and not KK. The math gets a little tricky multiway but at the time of your action calling is a plus EV play.
  • Doogal_DDoogal_D Red Chipper Posts: 16 ✭✭
    I'm going to take another look at the spot keeping in mind all of your comments. I think in the moment it just seemed that one of them had me beat due to the aggressive post-flop action (and my mistake of just flatting Villain 2's bet on the Flop) as I hadn't seen either of them take aggressive lines post-flop (but I know that doesn't mean much for Villain 1). Obviously I was super lost in the moment, so I wanted to review it, even though it isn't a super common spot. Thanks for all your feedback. Always nice to have the back and forth and I love this community for the fact that people are simply interested in helping each other.

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