Combo draw vs loose player

messi367messi367 Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
edited April 26 in Live Poker Hands
Playing $1/3 6max in a local cardroom. Min buyin $200, Max $500. I have about $500.

I raise to $17 in the CO w/ Ad3d. SB and BB call. Each player has about $300. The SB is a young kid who is a calling station and the BB is a very loose player who has been calling every preflop raise and playing almost every hand. Flop comes 7c4d2d. SB checks, BB bets out $40. I raise to $100 thinking I may have some fold equity with my Flush Draw and Gutshot straight draw. Also I have the advantage of being the aggressor by raising IP. Villain calls the raise. Turn comes a 2c. We both check. River comes a Th. We both check and he wins with 8d7d for 2nd pair. He had top pair and a flush draw on the flop.

I almost bet the turn but I thought I would take a free card because the player called a decent sized raise so he must have a pretty strong hand. Then I thought about going all in on the river but this guy was a gambler and I thought my bluff would not work more than 50% of the time(about a pot sized bet). There was $245 in the pot and villain had $200 left. Even though I basically had no showdown value I gave up because I thought it would be a -EV bluff. I later saw this player calling preflop raises blind and doing goofy stuff which made my play seem justifiable. I feel I may have saved some money because he may have bet on the turn if I did not raise and he could have bet a lot.

Do you guys think I just wimped out on a profitable river bluff or should I have gone all in on the turn? Should I have just called the donk bet on the flop and then possibly call or fold to a turn bet? I think I saw somewhere that is hard to bluff in bloated pots. I feel that is the case especially at $1/2 and $1/3 sometimes because gamblers just don't care and will usually call a big bet if they are somewhat committed.

Comments

  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 62 ✭✭
    This is a common scenario in these live games where there's a few different dynamics at play. First, even though you are 100BB deep, because of the large open raise sizes it plays like a shallower spot. Second, the games tend to be more call heavy, so bluffing has less value.

    I think on the flop you have two good options, which are call or all-in, and I much prefer the all-in. On this flop you have a ton of equity. I'd have to crunch the ranges but there is a real possibility a shove isn't even a bluff here. You are over 50% against hands like 99 that might bet here. Your raise size is just far too small to have any real fold equity. I'd rather just go all-in and if he folds great, if not, I have a ton of outs and am possibly even ahead.

    Call is OK if it looks like the SB might be interested, because if you can go 3-ways here that's very good for your equity. But most of the time he's going to fold, and you'll wish you had raised big if you brick the turn and face a big bet or shove from the BB.

    Reasons for all-in:
    -You may be mathematically ahead.
    -Maximized fold equity.
    -Keeps you from getting blown off on the turn
    Downsides:
    -If BB's range is very strong (2pair+) you are getting called and will be behind.

    Reasons for call:
    -Can invite the SB in.
    -Keeps you from getting it in bad vs. a strong range.
    Downsides:
    -May get blown off on the turn.
    -You may lose action vs weak hands when you hit.

    As played I think it's fine. You took the safe route which can still be very profitable in soft games like this. He had a pair so trying to bluff the turn or river may not have worked. All your decisions were +EV so it's still an OK line, I just think shoving the flop is the way to go in spots like this.
  • yuval_er1yuval_er1 Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    Hi

    I usually divide the donk bets into 2 groups: a small donk bet and a large small bet.
    I think from your description of the player that the fold equity is low after he bets 40 into 51, so I prefer just a call. Maybe fold equity will increase if the board gets messy, for example, a K will come on the turn.

    As played on the flop, I would like a turn shove if I think Villan is caple of folding. I don't think a river bluff would be effective, the board is relatively safe for him, flush didn't get there, the 10 isn't that scary, and sometimes A high will win against another missed flush draw or hand like 65 53.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,877 -
    Question to the OP: On that board texture, what advantage do you really have as the preflop aggressor?
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  • messi367messi367 Red Chipper Posts: 25 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Question to the OP: On that board texture, what advantage do you really have as the preflop aggressor?

    So are you saying that the board texture there favors the BB more than myself? Which I do agree with.

    But could my advantage be that I could have an overpair or maybe top set, those possibilities are more slim so my opponent has a big advantage and therefore I should be more cautious?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,877 -
    messi367 wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Question to the OP: On that board texture, what advantage do you really have as the preflop aggressor?

    So are you saying that the board texture there favors the BB more than myself? Which I do agree with.

    But could my advantage be that I could have an overpair or maybe top set, those possibilities are more slim so my opponent has a big advantage and therefore I should be more cautious?

    I was highlighting a couple of related issues. First, it's not obvious to me you have range advantage on that board. Second, what does the preflop initiative actually get you? Yes, you have an uncapped range, but it's not obvious to me what actionable advantage that bestows upon you.

    I'm not necessarily advocating caution (although the possibility your opponent has a set diminishes the otherwise attractive all-in option), just digging into this folklore that the initiative is automatically helpful and a reason for aggression by itself.
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