NL25 Cash 3bet spot QQ turn and river

struckostrucko Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
GG Poker - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB
SB: 48.52 BB
BB: 152.84 BB
UTG: 100 BB
Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 144.48 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has :QC::QD:

UTG raises to 2.52 BB, Hero raises to 8.96 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 8.56 BB, fold, UTG calls 6.44 BB

Flop: (27.88 BB, 3 players) :3D::6C::JS:
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 13.96 BB, fold, UTG calls 13.96 BB

Turn: (55.8 BB, 2 players) :JC:
UTG checks, Hero bets 18.44 BB, UTG calls 18.44 BB

River: (92.68 BB, 2 players) :5S:
UTG bets 41 BB, Hero calls 41 BB
UTG shows :6D::6S: (Full House, Sixes full of Jacks)
(Pre 19%, Flop 91%, Turn 91%)
Hero shows :QC::QD: (Two Pair, Queens and Jacks)
(Pre 81%, Flop 9%, Turn 9%)
UTG wins 165.68 BB

Hi guys not sure on how to approach this hand please give me your opinions. Flop cbet seems fine. Turn is where I don't know anymore if QQ is strong enough to bet again and potentially going for 3 streets of value. River as played should be 100% fold but the donk I am I called knowing I'm never good. I would have felt much better if I x behind turn and called any river this would usually be my default play and I hated myself as soon as I did the turn bet, for some reason I had a brain fart and thought not to give him a free card but if I really think about it there are not many cards that can come and help him at this point. AJs/KJs/QJs/JTs got there he doesnt have AK based on preflop action AQ highly unlikely KQ as well. So majority of the time I am thinking this will be a PP. Villain can show up with something like TT-77 and these are the hands that I beat and they will never pay off 3 streets of value so it makes even more sense to x turn and than either call or bet river.

Thanks a lot and good luck !

Comments

  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 80 ✭✭
    Normally I'd be going for 3 streets of value here on a good runout. That turn card is bad. It's going to be very tough to get called by worse on the turn and his Jx hands all just got there. I would just check it back and then look to play bluffcatcher on the river. The super small turn bet can sometimes be an OK exploit against the right opponent when you have a middling hand and wants a cheap showdown, but more often you're just putting in money bad.

    The c/c flop, c/c turn, lead blankish river line is a very fishy and usually a very nutted line. The thought process seems to be "I have a strong hand I don't want to lose action so I check, check again, now it's the river and I can't risk it checking through so I need to bet." On a flush/straight completing river it's different, but on a blank it's much more likely to be a very strong hand.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,951 -
    Suggest you can size down a little on the first two streets. Also agree the J is a terrible turn card and there's merit in checking back. I think you're more likely to win another bet here on the river, either through bluff catching or a thinnish value bet.
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  • struckostrucko Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Suggest you can size down a little on the first two streets. Also agree the J is a terrible turn card and there's merit in checking back. I think you're more likely to win another bet here on the river, either through bluff catching or a thinnish value bet.

    Does the down sizing come because of the fact that there was another caller preflop so it goes towards 1/3 of the pot ?
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,951 -
    It's a 3-bet pot which depresses the SPR and it's a dry flop. The fact you're multiway also tends to lower bet sizing. So just mashing 1/2-pot is probably not optimal. 1/3-pot looks more natural.
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