Hand analysis - SB shove with J7s against short-stacked BB

lalawyer21lalawyer21 Red Chipper Posts: 2 ✭✭
Hi everyone, amateur and first-time poster here.

I just won my first online real-money tourney and cashed for about $1400. Along the way, I lost the following hand:

50,000/100,000, 10k ante
Action folds to me in the small blind. I have ~$1.5M (~15.5 BB) and am in first or second place.
Big blind has $194,182 (< 2 BB)
I have J7s and shove all-in. BB calls and I lose to his AQo.

I realized that I had little fold equity against such a short stack, but I figured that as I was sitting on a minimally playable hand, I might as well shove to create a decision for the BB. I also assumed that if I simply completed, the BB would shove.

Did I analyze it wrong and make a mistake, or was it just unfortunate that he had AQ? Or maybe J7s is a garbage hand that I should never play again, even heads-up?
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Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,951 -
    First, congrats on the win.

    Second, you made the correct play. Yes, you'll always get called, but you're contributing about 1.5bb to a final pot of 4.9bb (assuming 9-handed). Ignoring ICM effects, that means you require 1.5/4.9 or 31% equity. J7s against a random hand has about 52% equity, so you're way ahead on the deal. In fact you have 37% equity against your opponent's actual holding, so if they flashed their hand it'd still be the correct play.
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