Advice on River, Range, and Bet Sizing

MeatcrabMeatcrab Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
I'm hoping I can get some advice on if the sizing of my betting was correct on these streets and thoughts regarding what action should of been taken on the river. Sample size of Villain is too small to be taken into account for this hand. I know my equity and implied odds are good for scenario but I'd like to hear your thought on what you think villains range is.

Ignition - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 104.5 BB
BTN: 27 BB
Hero (SB): 134.2 BB
BB: 122.5 BB
UTG: 121.2 BB
MP: 108.5 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:diamond: Q:spade:

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 8 BB, fold, CO calls 5 BB

Flop: (17 BB, 2 players) 7:diamond: Q:diamond: T:diamond:
Hero bets 9.1 BB, CO calls 9.1 BB

Turn: (35.2 BB, 2 players) 3:club:
Hero bets 16.8 BB, CO calls 16.8 BB

River: (68.8 BB, 2 players) A:heart:
Hero bets 32.7 BB, CO raises to 70.5 BB,
Tagged:

Comments

  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 80 ✭✭
    First off on your play, preflop is way too small. The general rule for 3-bet sizing is 3x IP and 4x OOP. So I'd have gone 12BB's here. An 8x open will get called by almost his entire opening range.

    Flop is fine. I tend to go a bit smaller towards 30% pot on monotone boards. I've read some advice that either checking range or c-betting small on monotone flops is correct, but don't ask me the math behind it. The small bet seems to generate a lot of folds that we wouldn't get on rainbow boards, so I've been using it with a lot of success. Maybe someone more knowledgeable than me on that subject can explain it.

    Turn I'd go bigger here. Usually 2/3 pot on most turn cards where I'm still value betting. You want to make the Ad pay a bit more.

    River, this is a bad card for you. Time to check and pray to whichever god you believe in because now you're in a rough spot. Hopefully he checks back a QJ or or JT type hand. But I'd be checking and probably folding to most bets.

    His range when we get to the river is Ax with the Ad, KJ, AQ, KQ, QJ, JdTx, maybe some sets, some flushes and maybe some other misc stuff like J9/AT/A7s. You are outright losing to most of his range by the river unless he calls very lightly on the turn. Most of his hands worse than yours will have some showdown value. You beat nothing that makes this raise for value, and it's hard to imagine him turning a worse hand into a bluff. I wouldn't bet this river, but I would likely snap fold if I had.
  • MeatcrabMeatcrab Red Chipper Posts: 7 ✭✭
    Thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts on this hand. I'll continue to make adjustments on my bet sizing in the future and try to be more mindful of my position when placing these bets.

    I'm happy to say that I placed Villain on a similar range so that's a positive for me and I'll try to do some digging regarding monochrome boards and if I find anything I'll let you know. @Koss

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,951 -
    Part of the theory on mono boards comes from population analysis and the finding that fold %s are high, for understandable reasons. They're quite interesting given that it's often the case both players can have the nuts, so range advantage becomes fuzzy.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 80 ✭✭
    I definitely feel that the secret is out on the 30% c-bet all flops trick. A lot of players may not be defending them 100% correctly, but they definitely aren't overfolding so often that it's just printing money anymore. But the monotone flops seem to break that trend a bit, so I still do c-bet any monotone flop heads up. My sample size is likely too small to know the true population tendency, but anecdotally it's so high that I'm not stopping anytime soon. If that were a rainbow flop we can pretty much expect any pair, gutshot, and some naked backdoor draws to call our c-bet. But on a board like this I suspect a lot of those hands are only calling with a diamond in them, so their defend range gets cut nearly in half, and we can reap the pure profit.
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 203 ✭✭
    I think the biggest challenge with this hand is that you've inflated this pot with a hand in the middle of your range. KQo tends more to a 3 bet bluff and has some reverse implied odds postflop. This is not usually a hand you want to play for stacks with which is what you put yourself in a position to do. You do block some flushes but that probably is mitigated by not having position. I agree with the pre and flop bet sizing of earlier recommendations. On the turn I would bet small say 40% to keep in the parts of v range that I'm beating 88,99 QJ, Adx in and then if you get check raised you can still call. The river you are in bluff catching mode and should check and evaluate based on bet size. This way your working with your hand and range and not against it.
  • ianvelianvel Red Chipper Posts: 1 ✭✭

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file