Beautiful little turn card. Can't help but to check-raise.

Chris_VChris_V BoiseRed Chipper Posts: 181 ✭✭
Ignition - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 89 BB
CO: 67.6 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 31.8 BB
Hero (BB): 202.6 BB
UTG: 206.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has :Qc:6c

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

I feel no need to raise preflop and this starting hand is too good to fold.

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) :2c:Qd:3d
Hero checks, CO bets 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Interesting bet sizing from villain. Pretty much a check call here. I don't have much reason to let my opponent think that his bluffs are no good.

Turn: (10.4 BB, 2 players) :4c
Hero checks, CO bets 5 BB, Hero raises to 25 BB, fold

I don't know about this check raise. My hand is so strong with that turn card that even if my opponent bet the pot I would still have odds to call against something like AA, KK, or AQ and I don't think I'm accomplishing much by folding the other hands that the villain may have. I just get a turn card like that and I think " Got to do something aggressive!"

The issue with being out of position is what do I do if I check call the turn and the River comes good for me, any club, 5, 6, Q. I almost feel like I need to donk rather that risking that my opponent checks back. He bet 1/3 on the flop and 1/2 pot on the turn. Doesn't seem like villain loves his hand much. Even if my opponent does bet he may not call a river check raise.

Hero wins 19.4 BB
Villain folded :Th:Jd

Comments

  • Chris_VChris_V BoiseRed Chipper Posts: 181 ✭✭
    Also my check raise was probably a little large for the stack sizes.
  • Chris_VChris_V BoiseRed Chipper Posts: 181 ✭✭
    Been doing some node locking in GTO+ trying to coax a machine answer for this question. When I first put in all the variables of ranges, stacks, and betting options, it seems my opponent should just hardly ever be betting the way he did given his range and stack size. So it kind'a makes a counter strategy difficult to suss out.
  • PapaGiorgioPapaGiorgio Red Chipper Posts: 114 ✭✭
    I understand your thinking with this hand. To add to the discussion, I feel the fact that you have the Q changes the approach. Specifically, ask yourself what the check-raise accomplishes. I think top pair is likely ahead, and check-raising folds out basically all hands that you beat. Would a river club really be that uncomfortable? If you just call, then I think a river club could be played as a check-raise for value.

    On this board, I think a check-raise might be better if you have a hand like K3c -- low pair might not be the best, but between fold equity and the possibility of improving on the river, a check-raise could be highest EV. Other hands that could be beat now but can improve to be the best hand might be the ones that deserve a check-raise solely because of the fold equity that comes from a check-raise.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,951 -
    I'm not convinced this is a call to a 3x from a 67bb stack.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,951 -
    As played... these spots are fascinating, although less so these days when the solver just gives us the answer. The subtle point IMO is that the turn card gives us added equity, but doesn't technically increase our hand strength. We still have TPCK. So we're always continuing here, but it almost feels like we're too strong to check-raise? Or at least we're too mid-strength to do so.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 80 ✭✭
    Preflop I think is OK. It's on the cusp of what's a valid blind defense, so even if it is technically a mistake given his open size and stack, it's not a huge one.

    I think the check raise is probably pretty bad here. If your hand was something like K6 of diamonds I think it's a lot better because you can fold out a lot of hands that are ahead of you that can't handle the pressure. This play will occasionally make a hand like AA/KK/Qx fold, so that's good though.

    One thing I tend to consider when getting priced in on a draw is what my EV of calling is. In many cases we will not be getting direct odds to draw and a call (before considering implied odds) is -EV. In these spots going with a semi-bluff can turn a -EV play into a +EV play. But here we already have a +EV call given how clean all of our outs are, and considering we still have the best hand a decent % of the time as well. Raising could quickly turn this +EV spot into a losing one if his turn betting range is top pair+. While we always want to make the MOST +EV play, actually calculating the EV of a semi bluff is very difficult if we don't have a very good handle on what his turn range is and what % of it folds. So by calling here you are staying on a known +EV path with significantly less uncertainty. It's always best to avoid "game theory disaster" raises, where all worse hands fold and all better ones call. At least in this spot you still have good equity when called by better hands, as well as the potential to occasionally make one fold, but I'd still avoid the spot altogether and just call the turn. You can probably fold the river unimproved if he makes a big bet. Leading out if you get there is a valid strategy. On turn and river cards that complete a lot of draws, leading out is often better than checking, both for value and as a bluff.
  • Chris_VChris_V BoiseRed Chipper Posts: 181 ✭✭
    Thanks for all the input! When I get time tonight I'll dig through it all.
  • Steve MSteve M Red Chipper Posts: 51 ✭✭
    Ignoring the villain's actual stack size, let's say he is closer to a standard 100+ BB stack and flats your Check Raise.

    What's your plan when you miss the river?
  • Chris_VChris_V BoiseRed Chipper Posts: 181 ✭✭
    Went back through this scenario with GTO+ solving down to 0.1%. It seems that the PC likes a large check/raise with Qc6c 1/3rd of the time and check/calling the rest. A check/raise folds out Ax and Kx and some better Qx that our opponent may be betting here. Villain is also forced to call with many draws that we are currently ahead of like Kcxc and Adxd. If the opponent shoves we call. If the opponent calls but we don't improve we check fold to a big bet on the river but our opponent should be checking down a lot on the river (given I didn't program multiple bet sizes this far down the tree).

    Back in the real world, I seem to be check raising in this spot way too much when it does come up so I need a much better heuristic. I like Koss's approach for now, we know calling is +EV, and check/raising does have a lot of risk associated to it.

    Since, we now know the range Villain was betting, JTo and the like, We would be much better off check raising many of our low EV draws and check/calling our mediocre single pairs on the Turn.

    Something for me to think about in the future: Was I being given bet sizing tells here? I have a feeling Villain would have been betting bigger with anything Top Pair or better on both streets.

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,951 -
    Chris_V wrote: »

    Something for me to think about in the future: Was I being given bet sizing tells here? I have a feeling Villain would have been betting bigger with anything Top Pair or better on both streets.

    One of the problems with the canonical 1/3-pot range bet that is spreading like wildfire is that it's much less clear than it used to be if there's a bet-sizing tell in spots like this. Similarly the turn isn't obvious either.

    FWIW these spots with a weak made hands that pick up extra equity on the turn seem to create a lot of conceptual problems. I've suggested to Upstairs that we create same new content on the topic.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • Chris_VChris_V BoiseRed Chipper Posts: 181 ✭✭
    So here is the problem I find with running a solver vs. having a good heuristic. You can make one assumption change on the river and now your Flop strategy has also changed. I keep toying around with villains bet size options and low and behold my simulations change pretty drastically. Below is an example of what my opponent should do on the flop. The only change is that on one the Villain can use 25%, 50%, and 100% River Bet Sizing while the other Villain is forced to use a 75% sizing.

    l6wl4s3mzim6.jpg

    Playing around with some basic assumptions can make my Turn check/raise never correct to almost always correct.
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 203 ✭✭
    I think there might be a challenge with giving a V just one bet size in a solver. That's just not how poker is played. I would put in all the typical options for bet sizing on the site you play on and see what you get back.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file