27 BI downswing

InfernoReignInfernoReign NYCRed Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
Guess I'll just start with the graph...
bjvmzrwb8s1s.png

Not sure what's happening exactly. Understand there's variance here of course (understanding yes... accepting...eh not so much). Checked stats on my last month and nothing has changed that's notable to me. Luck Bell Curve says I'm not getting my fair share of Flushes. Definitely feels like I'm on the receiving end of more suckouts than typical but always hard to justify when running above all-in EV (and yes I understand it's not a perfect metric).

Any thoughts here? Happy to share any PT4 stats that would provide insight. Just getting fairly tilting to have only 3 winning sessions in my last 21... Probably should just take a couple day break...

Comments

  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 198 ✭✭
    It's a little tough to give a good answer based on the graph but just a couple thoughts. I'd first be looking for some basic leaks like are you overplaying your middle strength hands based on the board. Is there balance in the ranges you are playing or are you playing too many hands? Are you chasing draws too much? This is a huge leak I've noticed in players. I recently had a bad downturn but when I looked at some of my leaks then I was able to make a correction things got much better.
  • GTOLifeGTOLife Hudson Valley, NYRed Chipper Posts: 907 ✭✭✭
    What stake cash games are you playing, OP?
  • InfernoReignInfernoReign NYCRed Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
    What stake cash games are you playing, OP?

    60/40 10NL and 25NL

    I didn't explicitly state this but this is my YTD graph
  • InfernoReignInfernoReign NYCRed Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
    edited May 26
    ulysses27 wrote: »
    It's a little tough to give a good answer based on the graph but just a couple thoughts. I'd first be looking for some basic leaks like are you overplaying your middle strength hands based on the board. Is there balance in the ranges you are playing or are you playing too many hands? Are you chasing draws too much? This is a huge leak I've noticed in players. I recently had a bad downturn but when I looked at some of my leaks then I was able to make a correction things got much better.

    Thanks for the advice. I pulled the following two graphs based on the below filters (let me know if you think there is some other way I should filter, definitely not something I do with enough frequency).

    Straight Draw on Any Street OR Flush Draw On Any Street Using 2 Hold Cards:
    59pn7kewckkt.png

    Middle Pair Any Kicker on Flop
    6hvpuc85lt8v.png

    Just based on the above... clearly I am over chasing my draws, which accounts for probably a substantial amount of the downswing. Especially when my luck bell curve for the year has my straight and flush draws on the "Unlucky" line.

    As for playing too many hands. I broke down into 3 segments based on the graph

    1) First 17,1k hands, PFR 22.4 / VPIP 28.6 / RFI 32.2
    2) Next 18.8k hands, PFR 22.0 / VPIP 27.6 / RFI 31.4
    3) Last 9.8k hands, PFR 20.1 / VPIP 24.4 / RFI 28.8

    Last 9.8k hands split into two:
    a) 4.4k hands, PFR 21.3 / VPIP 26.4 / RFI 30.7
    b) 5.4k hands, PFR 19.1 / VPIP 22.8 / RFI 22.3

    Doesn't seem like I'm generally playing more hands (in fact I've tightened up probably due to the downswing).
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,863 -
    Our PRO course "Analytic Exploitation" gives a lot of advice on how to use your database for self-analysis and leakfinder work.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • GTOLifeGTOLife Hudson Valley, NYRed Chipper Posts: 907 ✭✭✭
    VPIP/PFR/3B/Fv3B/4B/Fv4B, and AF. Those are probably the most relevant initially.
  • InfernoReignInfernoReign NYCRed Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Our PRO course "Analytic Exploitation" gives a lot of advice on how to use your database for self-analysis and leakfinder work.

    Thanks for the advice! I am a PRO member so I definitely should be reviewing that course.
  • InfernoReignInfernoReign NYCRed Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
    VPIP/PFR/3B/Fv3B/4B/Fv4B, and AF. Those are probably the most relevant initially.

    1) First 17,1k hands, PFR 22.4 / VPIP 28.6 / RFI 32.2
    3B 9.9 / Fv3B 68.0 / Fv3B(after2B) 47.0
    4B 10.4/ Fv4B 57.8 / Fv4B(after3B) 49.4

    2) Next 18.8k hands, PFR 22.0 / VPIP 27.6 / RFI 31.4
    3B 10.2 / Fv3B 72.0 / Fv3B(after2B) 51.3
    4B 6.4 / Fv4B 61.8 / Fv4B(after3B) 54.6

    3) Last 9.8k hands, PFR 20.1 / VPIP 24.4 / RFI 28.8
    3B 9.2 / Fv3B 74.0 / Fv3B(after2B) 53.9
    4B 7.8 / Fv4B 67.1 / Fv4B(after3B) 64.7
  • GTOLifeGTOLife Hudson Valley, NYRed Chipper Posts: 907 ✭✭✭
    Always put VPIP before PFR. So, a fish might be a 68/20/3, meaning he VPIPs 68%, PFRs 20%, and 3B's 3%.
  • InfernoReignInfernoReign NYCRed Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
    Always put VPIP before PFR. So, a fish might be a 68/20/3, meaning he VPIPs 68%, PFRs 20%, and 3B's 3%.

    Gotcha. Will do in the future. Thx.

    Guess I’m not a fish in that case (lol). Maybe I am playing too many hands for the stakes given things like rake?
  • InfernoReignInfernoReign NYCRed Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
    To any mod out there, not sure if I put this thread in the right spot. Should it be in core? Thanks!
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,863 -
    To any mod out there, not sure if I put this thread in the right spot. Should it be in core? Thanks!

    I guess technically "online poker hands" is for review of online poker hands, but since it's generating good discussion where it is I see no need to move it.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • GTOLifeGTOLife Hudson Valley, NYRed Chipper Posts: 907 ✭✭✭
    edited May 30
    Your stats look pretty good but I think they may be just a bit too aggressive for the pool you're in. It's a common misconception to apply some of the more advanced concepts that work in higher stakes games incorrectly in micros stakes games. What is your AF and AFq?

    Further, judging by your red line and a few other things: I think you're just way, way too aggressive and spewy postflop. You clearly have a ton of leaks because losing 27 BI's in these games (I'm playing 10z and 20nl) isn't a downswing - it's just getting rolled over.

    You need to start posting specific hands and going over them on here in detail. Another thing in addition to your AF: What is your preflop positional awareness? You may be playing too many hands OOP and playing them incorrectly. This can just absolutely bleed chips over time. A lot of players today will float you relentlessly once they see you have exploitable leaks on the turn and river.
  • InfernoReignInfernoReign NYCRed Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
    GTOLife wrote: »
    Your stats look pretty good but I think they may be just a bit too aggressive for the pool you're in. It's a common misconception to apply some of the more advanced concepts that work in higher stakes games incorrectly in micros stakes games. What is your AF and AFq?

    Further, judging by your red line and a few other things: I think you're just way, way too aggressive and spewy postflop. You clearly have a ton of leaks because losing 27 BI's in these games (I'm playing 10z and 20nl) isn't a downswing - it's just getting rolled over.

    You need to start posting specific hands and going over them on here in detail. Another thing in addition to your AF: What is your preflop positional awareness? You may be playing too many hands OOP and playing them incorrectly. This can just absolutely bleed chips over time. A lot of players today will float you relentlessly once they see you have exploitable leaks on the turn and river.
    Thanks for this response and sorry for my delay. Didn't see it til today. (Also have taken a week+ hiatus in the online poker streets).

    Total AF: 2.53
    Total AFq: 53.01

    Positional Awareness (filter: Saw Flop & Not All-In Pre)
    IP: win rate 57.06, 47.2% of hands
    OOP: win rate -13.69, 52.8% of hands
    (FWIW, if I look at my since 1/1/2020 stats:)
    (IP: win rate 72.46, 47.1% of hands)
    (OOP: win rate 14.76, 52.9% of hands)

    Without much analysis, I don't feel like I am particularly over-aggressive (maybe I'm totally mistaken).

    IP/OOP, I pulled some more graphs. Clearly the IP Flop, PF Raise is an obvious winner, OOP Flop, PF Call needs to be cut down, and then IP Flop/PF Call and OOP Flop/PF Raise are both a struggle...

    IP Flop, PF Call
    0igojn142bf1.png

    IP Flop, PF Raise
    oa8phofr6c13.png

    OOP Flop, PF Call
    v3kkxoira2rc.png

    OOP Flop, PF Raise
    btf9uharos29.png


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