Folding a set of Kings in a 3-bet pot?

PokerDruidPokerDruid Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
20NL 6 MAX (blinds 10c/20c)
HUD not allowed on WSOP NJ
Effective stacks: $20.00

Villain: Plays pretty loose but normally check folds when he has nothing. I've seen him get it in with top pair several times.

UTG sitting out, Villain opens to $0.57 in MP, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.74 on the button with KcKh, SB folds, BB folds, Villain calls OOP.

Pot: $3.57
Flop: Ac 3d Ks
Action: Villain checks, Hero bets $1.29, Villain calls.

Pot: $6.01
Turn: 10d
Action: Villain checks, Hero bets $4.77, Villain calls.

Pot: $15.02
River: Qd
Action: Villian shoves for $13.57. Hero folds (after thinking for a while).

Thought process: I was way ahead on the flop and turn and he hit the card he needed on the river. I put him on a diamond draw - AdJd would play this way. He also could have hit a gutshot on the turn (QcJc, QsJs) and slow played it. Is folding here the right move? What other hands could he have in this spot? I don't think he would shove the river OOP with 2 pair or a set on such a wet board.

Thanks!

Comments

  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 203 ✭✭
    I think your fold is correct here because of the action. Unless you've seen this player pull some insane bluffs there just aren't enough bluffs to justify a call. One thing I would say is that I'm not sure about your bet sizing on the turn. I could go one of two ways. A small bet sizing and see if you get check raised. QJ definitely wants to get the money and guard against the flush. If you don't get raised and the river is favorable then you bet really big since any 2 pair or high ace would likely call to guard against bluffs. You could also bet really large on the turn say 1.5 pot. The advantage is you charge draws the max and force them into a mistake by calling as they would be making a -EV play because you have position.
  • fuzzyferret83fuzzyferret83 Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    I think the fold is good. What hands that you beat are check calling flop and turn and then shoving the river on that run out. It sucks to fold a set but probably correct in this instance.
  • PokerDruidPokerDruid Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    ulysses27 wrote: »
    I think your fold is correct here because of the action. Unless you've seen this player pull some insane bluffs there just aren't enough bluffs to justify a call. One thing I would say is that I'm not sure about your bet sizing on the turn. I could go one of two ways. A small bet sizing and see if you get check raised. QJ definitely wants to get the money and guard against the flush. If you don't get raised and the river is favorable then you bet really big since any 2 pair or high ace would likely call to guard against bluffs. You could also bet really large on the turn say 1.5 pot. The advantage is you charge draws the max and force them into a mistake by calling as they would be making a -EV play because you have position.

    I agree there are not enough bluffs in this spot to justify a call. I do disagree with the 1.5 pot bet sizing on the turn though. My bet on the turn was 3/4 pot which means he would need 30% equity to make the call. The best hand he could possibly have in this scenario is AdJd, AdKd, or Kd,Jd which only has 25% equity by the turn. Either way he made a -EV call with little implied odds. Maybe a pot sized bet instead so there is still enough in my stack for a big shove on the river?

    Also, 1/3 pot bet size would give him great odds to hit his draw which I didn't want. With the way this guy plays I would have gotten the stacks in on the turn knowing I was way ahead as I've seen him get it in with nothing but top pair second kicker several times.
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 203 ✭✭
    The reason for those bet sizings is based on Vs entire range not just their draws. The concept of charging the draws is an incorrect one as it isolates one part of a players range while ignoring another. If v is a loose player could he not have A5s and other suited A. If you are only putting v on 5 hands then this is a tight player. Personally I like the smaller sizing on the turn as the board has turned slightly less in your favor since you generally can't have QJ but your opponent can but you still want value and you keep more of his range in play. The larger sizing is more exploitive then gto since in my experience a lot of players will overcall in this spot but it's just a suggestion. 3/4 or a pot sized bet get the job done too.

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