NL10 - KK in river trouble

Bridgeking

My first hand here, so I appologise if info is missing.

Villan is 57% fold to 3-bets, and 0% 4 betting, but only over a 57 hands sample
I havenst seen him out of line.

I just moved from NL5 to NL10, and on NL5 i people are really not bluffing much on the river - why overfolding rivers imo are profitable.

I think pre is pretty standard.

Flop: I like betting pretty big OOP, on a board where he could have a lot of straightdraws.

Turn i cant see much reason to raise, since we wanna keep is draws and bluffs in - but could we fold or is that t weak ?

River:
If we think he would 4-bet AA, QQ and maybe AK - we could give him a range like:
JJ, 1010, AQ AJs - and maybe a few other random conbos.
In that case i guess folding is correct.
But my experience in thinking in ranges this way is pretty limited, so dont really know if i am doing it correct.

How would you guys have played this hand ?

TheGameKat

Feels like fold river. Solverland anyone?

You might get clarity by determining the range with which V takes this line.

MortgageBroker

Call me weak passive, but I'm shaking my head in frustration....and folding. Tough hand. Sometimes, I remind myself that difficult folds are what separate the men from the boys.

PapaGiorgio

By folding, you put him on Jx. What's his raise PF and call 3B range? Personally, as the villain, I could call the flop cbet with AKs/AQs since you could have the same hand. Once you check turn, I'm putting you on AK/AQ and attacking. I will get caught some of the time by QQ+, but I've seen many players play AK/AQ aggressively PF and on the flop, but then freeze-up on the turn thus allowing my line to win pots I would have folded earlier in my poker journey.

TheGameKat

Interesting point. The turn is a pretty good bluff card, but it does require villain to float with the plan of firing river. (Given their line.) Like if they had an AT type hand here, I'd assume they'd just check back end.

Koss

A common mistake made when moving up is to assume the games are significantly different and to make massive adjustments in strategy. The jumps are much more incremental, and for the most part playing the same way you played your previous level, at least until you get a good hand sample on the regs, is the right move. The good players at all levels are all pretty good. There are just fewer bad players as you move up, so reg on reg battles become more common and navigating those spots more important.

One thing to note is look at the range you gave him. JJ/TT/AQ/AJs. If that range is correct, and he is bluffing with all his AQ combos, then you absolutely should call here. There are only 6 hands of value there and 16 combos of bluffs, and you can discount JJ/TT a bit as some of those will raise the flop. Now personally I think that's an overly tight range. I think he can have AJo QQ, some AK, some QJs. It's hard to know if calling over a 1/2 pot bet OTF leaves him with as many bluff combos as you've given him. On the other hand your actual hand feels stronger than your range here, so maybe he thinks he can value bet something like ATs/QQ here.

It's a tough spot and one I'm generally curious as to the solver solution on. My instincts are to bet the turn and probably x/eval river (leaning fold) if called. Like you said, rivers are pretty under bluffed, especially after you make floating expensive with a big flop bet, so I don't think folding as played is a huge mistake. You can also look at his FtoCBet stat. Unfortunately your sample is small, but this would be a good indicator as to how many weaker hands he may have in his range to turn into bluffs.