Interesting Online Hand
I'm on Pokerstars, free money, 10K 9-player sit-and-go.
Started with 1500 chips, blinds are at 25-50 about to go up and I'm short stack with about 750 chips left. We're 7 handed at this point. UTG with A9c which is on the low end of my playing range and dangerous.
I RFI to 2.5x as my sizing fluxuates, 125
All fold except BB who limps (they're sitting around 1800 chips).
flop: 865 w/ two diamonds
BB checks, I bet 150, which I realize now was a mistake given that flop with a BB limper
BB shoves all in making me have a decision with 450 behind me into a 425 pot, or really giving me a 2:1 on my money (i.e. his 450 bet plus pot)
I consider my outs with the two over cards and a gut shot being 10 and worst case 7 because of the potential flush hitters, giving me around 40% (40% vs pairs, 40% vs draws cause they can hit their pair too) unless they flopped a two pair or better then I'm kinda screwed at 16%. I know players are also willing to do this with really any pair here so given the situation and my pot size I decide to call. BB flips over 83 off suit.
Turn comes A, River is a dud. I win and the person comments how lucky I was there. Which sure, there was some luck involved. Knowing that I should've checked the flop in that spot I was wondering if that was a bad call given my thought process and that the pot odds were less than ideal for a 2:1 bet. I understand some of the math isn't 100% because it's pokerstars and you get about 15 seconds to act each hand so I used some rounding.
Thank You!
Started with 1500 chips, blinds are at 25-50 about to go up and I'm short stack with about 750 chips left. We're 7 handed at this point. UTG with A9c which is on the low end of my playing range and dangerous.
I RFI to 2.5x as my sizing fluxuates, 125
All fold except BB who limps (they're sitting around 1800 chips).
flop: 865 w/ two diamonds
BB checks, I bet 150, which I realize now was a mistake given that flop with a BB limper
BB shoves all in making me have a decision with 450 behind me into a 425 pot, or really giving me a 2:1 on my money (i.e. his 450 bet plus pot)
I consider my outs with the two over cards and a gut shot being 10 and worst case 7 because of the potential flush hitters, giving me around 40% (40% vs pairs, 40% vs draws cause they can hit their pair too) unless they flopped a two pair or better then I'm kinda screwed at 16%. I know players are also willing to do this with really any pair here so given the situation and my pot size I decide to call. BB flips over 83 off suit.
Turn comes A, River is a dud. I win and the person comments how lucky I was there. Which sure, there was some luck involved. Knowing that I should've checked the flop in that spot I was wondering if that was a bad call given my thought process and that the pot odds were less than ideal for a 2:1 bet. I understand some of the math isn't 100% because it's pokerstars and you get about 15 seconds to act each hand so I used some rounding.
Thank You!
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Comments
You can't count all your overcards as outs because he will already have made 2pair or better some percentage of the time, or may be blocking an out with a hand like A8/89/7x. Exactly how to discount outs is a bit tricky, but generally speaking any outs to a non-nut hand that your opponent could already have beat or have a re-draw against can't be 100% counted. In this case given the flush draw potential I'd roughly estimate the Ace as 2 outs, the 9 as 1.5 outs, and the 7's as 3.5 outs, so 7ish outs. I could also be convinced it should be lower. So from a pure odds standpoint its a fold. ICM makes it more of a fold as well.
I find 15BB stacks a bit tough to maneuver. It's too much to just open shove this preflop from UTG, but small enough that you have no maneuverability postflop. I tend to play the tightest around this stack size, and would fold this pre. For the most part when I do decide to open a pot at this stack size, I'm shoving most flops I get a piece of.
Also, I guess something unfortunate must've occurred already for you to be half-stacked. In general, you should take extreme steps to avoid this from happening.
Thank you so much!