Interesting Online Hand

Googopqp

I'm on Pokerstars, free money, 10K 9-player sit-and-go.

Started with 1500 chips, blinds are at 25-50 about to go up and I'm short stack with about 750 chips left. We're 7 handed at this point. UTG with A9c which is on the low end of my playing range and dangerous.

I RFI to 2.5x as my sizing fluxuates, 125

All fold except BB who limps (they're sitting around 1800 chips).

flop: 865 w/ two diamonds

BB checks, I bet 150, which I realize now was a mistake given that flop with a BB limper

BB shoves all in making me have a decision with 450 behind me into a 425 pot, or really giving me a 2:1 on my money (i.e. his 450 bet plus pot)

I consider my outs with the two over cards and a gut shot being 10 and worst case 7 because of the potential flush hitters, giving me around 40% (40% vs pairs, 40% vs draws cause they can hit their pair too) unless they flopped a two pair or better then I'm kinda screwed at 16%. I know players are also willing to do this with really any pair here so given the situation and my pot size I decide to call. BB flips over 83 off suit.

Turn comes A, River is a dud. I win and the person comments how lucky I was there. Which sure, there was some luck involved. Knowing that I should've checked the flop in that spot I was wondering if that was a bad call given my thought process and that the pot odds were less than ideal for a 2:1 bet. I understand some of the math isn't 100% because it's pokerstars and you get about 15 seconds to act each hand so I used some rounding.

Thank You!

Googopqp

Correction, my decision for a 450 call into a 875 sized pot. Their 450 bet plus 425 pot.

Koss

A few things. Limper is usually reserved for a term for someone not in the blinds but just calls the BB instead of raising. In this case you open raised and the BB defended.

You can't count all your overcards as outs because he will already have made 2pair or better some percentage of the time, or may be blocking an out with a hand like A8/89/7x. Exactly how to discount outs is a bit tricky, but generally speaking any outs to a non-nut hand that your opponent could already have beat or have a re-draw against can't be 100% counted. In this case given the flush draw potential I'd roughly estimate the Ace as 2 outs, the 9 as 1.5 outs, and the 7's as 3.5 outs, so 7ish outs. I could also be convinced it should be lower. So from a pure odds standpoint its a fold. ICM makes it more of a fold as well.

I find 15BB stacks a bit tough to maneuver. It's too much to just open shove this preflop from UTG, but small enough that you have no maneuverability postflop. I tend to play the tightest around this stack size, and would fold this pre. For the most part when I do decide to open a pot at this stack size, I'm shoving most flops I get a piece of.

TheGameKat

Is this pre ante? If so it's a clear fold preflop. If it isn't, I'd still fold preflop. At 15bb you're mostly looking for a spot in which someone else opens and you can 3-bet jam.

Also, I guess something unfortunate must've occurred already for you to be half-stacked. In general, you should take extreme steps to avoid this from happening.

Googopqp

In response to Koss, I should've added the villain was the type of player who would just shove most A's pre so I didn't really put them on an ace in this spot, but that said both your notes about being tighter in this spot are very valid and given the charts it looks I just played it poorly. I know too if I get myself in this spot check that sort of board postflop and I'll save myself having to be forced to fold. I thought my reasoning made sense but it really just opens me up to terrible spots like this or to be facing an A-10o kind of calling or defending hand as well. So I'll focus on tightening up and looking for more 3-bet jamming spots when shortest stack like that.

Thank you so much!

TheGameKat

Good luck.