Help !! Pg 150 Post Flop Workbook

Tomg101Tomg101 Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
Hi folks, I'm an old guy just trying to improve my poker. Been a long time since I have had to use my math skills. Churning along with the workbook; however; hit page 150 and am going nuts trying to figure out the 3 questions. Seems I know but just can't quite get what I am doing wrong.

#1) 2c2h my hand, Kc8c2s XX the board. How often will the runout both pair the board and complete the club flush?

#2) AsJs my hand, Ts6d4h XX the board. How often will you catch a runner-runner straight or flush by the river?

#3) Kc9c my hand, QhJdTs XX the board. How often will the runout contain only contain 6 or lower (2-6)?

Any help in pointing me in the correct direction would be appreciated.



  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,863 -
    Are there any example hands from the beginning of that section that suggest a method of solution? Given it's a SplitSuit product I imagine his approach would be to use Flopzilla, but since I don't it's difficult to advise. Like I can do it analytically, but I'm quite sure that isn't the intent of the exercise.
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  • Tomg101Tomg101 Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    No he doen't really use flopzilla (except to show what it looks like). There are really two sections in this section. The first is a single item and these three are two items. Just can't quite get there.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,863 -
    edited June 5
    I'm puzzled. From what I know of his workbooks, SplitSuit uses Flopzilla for nearly everything. In fact when I've queried some of his problems in the past, he's explained that they are designed as practice to use Flopzilla rather than having much standalone importance. So he and I calculate these things using a completely different approach.

    Let me ask him. If anyone else here has this workbook, please chime in. Might take a few days since he and I work orthogonal shifts.

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  • Tomg101Tomg101 Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 61 ✭✭
    I'm not familiar with the workbook, but these are basic probability questions. #2 is the easiest. You figure out each one independently and then add them. So in this case, to get a runner runner flush you need to hit one of the 10 spades on the turn, and there are 47 unseen cards, so 10/47. Then OTR you need one of the 9 spades out of 46, so 9/46. Multiply them together and you get about 4%. Then for backdoor straight, there are 8 kings or queens to hit OTT, so 8/47. Then OTR there are 4 cards left to complete your backdoor gutter, so 4/46. That will happen about 1.5% of the time. So you're about 6.5% to make a flush or straight by the river. Although technically we counted the backdoor Royal Flush twice there, so to be super precise we'd need to subtract it out once. #1 and #3 require a few more steps, but the logic is the same.

    Doing this math at the table is of course mostly impractical. It's why using Flopzilla or Equilab to understand the percentages of various scenarios so they are more just rough estimates you make based on having run similar scenarios and knowing roughly where the equities lie.
  • Tomg101Tomg101 Red Chipper Posts: 11 ✭✭
    Thanks Koss. See what I was doing wrong now. I was multiplying the two answers instead of adding. Been a long time since I did much math.

    Thanks again !
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,863 -
    Sorry not to get back sooner on this, had a problem overlapping with James.

    He said either analytically as Koss demonstrated or to use an included spreadsheet? He loves spreadsheets.
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