Bad Fold?

InfernoReignInfernoReign NYCRed Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
edited June 8 in Live Poker Hands
So there was a hand that took place an orbit or so before the main hand that I think needs to be shown to provide some insight.



1/3, 10 handed
"Context Hand"
Hero BTN $1k Effective
Villain HJ (Thinking Reg)

Preflop
UTG limps, MP raises to 10, Villain HJ raises to 35, Hero BTN calls, SB calls, MP calls
Flop: Pot ~$150
:Ac:9c:4h
Checks to Villain HJ; Bets 75, only Hero calls
Turn: ~$300
:8h
Villain HJ bets $150; Hero calls
River: ~$600
:2h
Check Check

Villain :Ah:Td
Hero :As:Jc

Main Hand
Hero BTN
Villain HJ (Thinking Reg) ~$900 Effective

Preflop
UTG straddle 6, HJ OMC calls, Villain CO calls, Hero raises to 30, HJ and CO call
Flop: Pot ~$100
:8c:4c:2d
Checks to Hero; Bets 45; HJ folds, Villain CO raises to 125, Hero calls
Turn: ~$350
:5c
Villain bets $150; Hero calls
River: $650
:8s
Villain snap all-in for $450, Hero tank folds

Villain shows :5d:6d
Hero had :Ks:Kh

Further context on the "Thinking Reg". He was a 23yo who kept asking me about my poker history (i.e. do you play online? what stakes? do you play PLO? do you use PIO solvers...)

In the moment I was thinking I wish I had :Kc because that make this an easier call. The snap all in had me curious because it just seemed like he had planned to shove any river which just had me suspicious.

Welcome any thoughts or critiques! Thanks!

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,863 -
    Context hand I'd fold very fast to the 3-bet pre. I think that likely provides more context for how villain sees you.

    The snap river AI does typically set off alarm bells that this is a programmed play. Typically live players with nut-flush+ here think about it.
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  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 61 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Typically live players with nut-flush+ here think about it.

    At least for me it was the opposite. When I was playing live, the nut-flush+ is a trivial shove here, and I found myself just snap shoving. At least for me the decision to shove the nuts was more programmed than deciding whether to fire a 3rd barrel bluff. I actually had to condition myself to pause a little bit before my shove so as to not telegraph my hand strength.

    In the context hand your cold call of the 3-bet seems bad. He's 3-betting wider than he probably should, but you got lucky to run into the bottom of his range there.

    I'd probably fold the turn here when the club hits. It's nitty, but when the flush hits and the turn barrel comes, he's repping pretty strong. I wouldn't read too much into the context hand here. The situation is too different. Without a stronger read, I'm asking myself on this turn "am I willing to stack off here on most rivers?" and if the answer is no, I think it's time to fold. A lot of rivers are going to complete more draws, and this guy is already repping a set.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 4,863 -
    Koss wrote: »
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Typically live players with nut-flush+ here think about it.

    At least for me it was the opposite. When I was playing live, the nut-flush+ is a trivial shove here, and I found myself just snap shoving. At least for me the decision to shove the nuts was more programmed than deciding whether to fire a 3rd barrel bluff. I actually had to condition myself to pause a little bit before my shove so as to not telegraph my hand strength.

    Interesting, that's kind of the reverse of standard tell theory, but the big problem with the whole field is that you need to calibrate individuals. I think the conventional wisdom is people who are very strong pause to give the impression they're not sure shoving is a good idea or something.
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  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 61 ✭✭
    For sure. I think sometimes I'm more level zero when it comes to giving off live tells, and I've worked on being a bit more ambiguous with my emotions at the table. I have heard the statement from pros, at least online pros, that from a timing standpoint fast bets tend to be more polarizing, where the decision is more simple, just rip the bluff or value. Like when you call a turn bet and the river shove seems to come faster than a human brain can process the card.
    Snap bets are almost never middling hands because those do take at least a second or two to consider the change in board texture.
  • Chris_VChris_V BoiseRed Chipper Posts: 172 ✭✭
    edited June 9
    I saw a guy do this to a Tight Player on Monday. Looking from outside the hand it seemed so obvious what was happening. First the Villain showed he could bluff big on previous hands and get caught. Second the quick timing, dedication to huge bets, and shoving the river seemed exaggerated compared to other plays he made. He was representing turned trips when the Tight Player checked (xxT) ,(T)

    Of course when this guy is blasting I wouldn't feel to happy calling down with a single pair.

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