Scary river but can he have what he's repping?

KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 112 ✭✭✭
Online $100NL. This guy is relatively unknown but about 75 hands in he's looking like a possible LAG. VPIP/PFR of 29/22. This is probably one of the best hands I can have on this river.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

CO: 149.65 BB
Hero (BTN): 148.53 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 105.12 BB
UTG: 135.66 BB
MP: 78.91 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :Kh:Ad
UTG raises to 2.75 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 6.25 BB

Flop : (19.5 BB, 2 players) :6h:7s:Ah
UTG checks, Hero bets 7.5 BB, UTG calls 7.5 BB

Turn : (34.5 BB, 2 players) :3d
UTG checks, Hero bets 20 BB, UTG calls 20 BB

River : (74.5 BB, 2 players) :4d
UTG bets 99.16 BB and is all-in, Hero ???

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 5,045 -
    Ugh. I think the big question here is: does V ck-ra flop with the key draws? LAGs tend to. If you can eliminate hearts and 98s, I think V can back into too many A-wheel 2-pair and the dreaded A5s for you to call.
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  • yuval_er1yuval_er1 Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
    You have to call 100 bb to win a pot of 275 bb, so you have to be correct 36%.

    Let's try to think about his range. I believe a lag can open and call 3bet with all pocket pairs and suited connectors. I guess he can fold some suited Aced, some offsuit cards like AJo-A10o, KQo-KJo, and hands like K9s-J9s. I don't think suited gappers like 97s are in UTG open range, 22% is not that high and probably lower in this position.

    So his value range on the river can include all sets but aces, although 764 are less likely because most players will c/r earlier when the board gets connected. Hands like A5s, 56s, and maybe 54s are also in his range.
    Let's assume his not value betting A4s or something like that because of the sizing.
    A5s - 2 combos.
    65s - 3 combos.
    54s - 3 combos (less likely cause didn't c/r flop and turn), so I'll count 2.
    55 - 6 combos.
    77,66,44 - 9 combos, lets count as 4 (same reason above).
    So 18 combos for value.

    His bluff range can include some missed flush draws, but again not everything because he would c/r some. QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s is 6, I'll count as 3.
    in order to balance it well, he has to bluff 88-78s (9 combos). and even then the range is leaning towards value.

    If he's doing that it 18 for value and 12 for bluff.

    Minimum defence frequency should be around 40% of your range. Because I am not sure he's bluffing enough I think 25%-30% is also good enough bluff cathing for me.

    I think your range looks like this AA, AJs+, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, AQo+. that. 37 combos.
    If I bluff catch AA (3), AKs-AQs (6), AKo-AQo (without K heart, 3), that's 12 combos to bluff catch and that gives me the frequency I wanted.
    If you have 77 in your range it clearly comes ahead.
  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 112 ✭✭✭
    Good analysis. I know having the king of hearts is not great here. My gut reaction at the table was that this was a call with all my AK and a fold with all my AQ, which looks about right from a frequency standpoint, but we can do a bit better by considering blockers.
  • yuval_er1yuval_er1 Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
    Thanks. Very important to use the blocker because it adds 3 combos of bluffs to the bluffing range.
    What hand he had?
  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 112 ✭✭✭
    You assume I called? My default reaction was actually fold, but decided I couldn't let this guy just run me over, and his 3bet oop defense range shouldn't hit this board too hard, so i ultimately called and lost to A5s.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 5,045 -
    GTO Aces strikes again.
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  • DenisNSmithDenisNSmith Red Chipper Posts: 19 ✭✭
    He check-calls you twice. That's dangerous. It's unlikely he's drawing, so I'd put him on 2-pair, possibly with a draw to the hearts or the straight. Either way he has you on the river?
  • DenisNSmithDenisNSmith Red Chipper Posts: 19 ✭✭
    edited July 8
    Why raise to 9BB? You have him tagged as LAG, so you can limp there. AK is NOT as strong as people like to believe. Since you hit the A there, you now have check-raise action. But I imagine this guy cannot fold top pair, so keep the pot small on that flop?

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