River check-raise bluff

KeyserS023

I played this hand on Ignition earlier today at $0.50 NL, and I wanted to ask y'all whether my check-raise bluff on the river made sense.

MP: 98.06 BB (Villain: 31/31 through 54 hands, has been passive post-flop)
CO: 111.5 BB
BTN: 105.36 BB
SB: 108.78 BB
Hero (BB): 144.28 BB
UTG: 100 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :8c :KC:

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) :9H: :TH: :4C:
Hero checks, MP bets 1.62 BB, Hero calls 1.62 BB

I have backdoor flush and straight draws, plus an overcard, so calling a 30% pot C-bet seems clear to me.

Turn: (8.74 BB, 2 players) :5C:
Hero checks, MP bets 12 BB, Hero calls 12 BB

Now this is interesting. I've picked up a flush draw, and villain overbets about 1.4x pot. My guess at this point is that villain has a made hand (possibly a very good made hand) and is scared of all the draws on the board. They're not giving me good odds, but I call, planning to lead the river if draws come in (as a bluff or for value, depending on whether my draw hits).

River: (32.74 BB, 2 players) :8H:
Hero checks, MP bets 23.34 BB, Hero raises to 128.16 BB and is all-in, fold

Hero wins 75.46 BB

This looks like a really scary card for most of the range I've put villain on, but I've also picked up some showdown equity (villain might have been betting overcards, for example). I think that I have at least some small chance to win if we check it down, but once villain bets 70% pot, there's no way my pair of 8's is good. When I shove, I need villain to fold a bit more than half the time to break even. Villain tanked before folding.

So what do folks think? Did my reasoning make sense? Is the check-shove on the river +EV? Is there any other part of my line y'all would play differently? Thanks!

TheGameKat

The worry I have with a line like that is that we're not going to get the opportunity to check-raise bluff the end. That is, in many variations we're calling a turn overbet and then getting shown AT when the end goes check-check.

Having been given the gift of the river bet on a board that favors you, I think it'd be rude not to accept it by shoving.

ulysses27

Against this player type I think this is a good line. Against better players who know to overbet turn with nut draws not as sure. But your reads seem accurate. I'd prefer this line with a heart in my hand

mp777

River shove makes sense given you had the opportunity to do so here after the river check ...

I'd muck on the turn to the overbet. Based on your description I'd agree that Hero seems to have a made hand (or a combo draw most of the time). My read would be a made hand that is trying to fold out the draws on this incredibly wet board.

I don't feel great about bluffing the river when the hearts come in but if you're calling the turn I think you have to. On this river, I probably prefer leading out for 1.1-1.3x pot on the river than a check raise. If villain is afraid of the heart I expect you see a check frequently.

Also seems like it would be hard to get villain to fold out big made hands when only the straight draw comes in on the river - if its just the straight draw that comes in, I'd probably go for a check raise all in instead of leading out. 1) you make villain how to call off the stack increasing likelihood of folding out bigger made hands 2) you are more likely to see a bet here on the river in comparison to the flush draw coming in.

If river isn't a 6,K, or flush card, I think you just have to check / fold.

If river is an off suit K, I think you check call and hope your K is good.

If river is a club, I think you can check shove - less likely you'll get credit for the backdoor flush.

DenisNSmith

I think you were induced to call, and the villain had a pair at best. A-Hi probably. The river was not a brick for you, but it was for him. most likely. Your shove is bad. Check behind and pick up the pot.

There are so many hands that ruin you here. You must have been bricking it when you pushed? And rightly so.