Turn raise sizing with nuts on wet board

mp777mp777 Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
500NL 6-max

BTN (Hero) $650
SB (Villian) $720

Folds around to me on the button and I have :Ac:Qh I haven't been aggressively going after the blinds, more than half of my raises from the BTN have seen a 3bet from BB. SB has not aggressively defended from the blinds.

BTN (Hero) Raise to $12
SB (Villain) 3-bet to $51
BB fold
BTN (Hero) Call

FLOP
:Ts:6h:Kh

SB (Villain) bet $56
BTN (Hero) call

TURN
:Ts:6h:Kh:Js

SB (Villain) bet $62
BTN (Hero) raise to ??

What do you raise to here and why?

Comments

  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 82 ✭✭
    It's a really awkward size to raise to anything other than all-in. Raise sizing is probably one of my weaker areas, and maybe there is some good reason to raise somewhere between min and $300 but really any raise size we make here is committing. I figure anything he calls a raise with here likely has equity against us, so we might as well shove and force him to make a bad call or a tough fold. If we raise small and he has a set or flush draw he's going to call and may not pay us off on the river.
  • mp777mp777 Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    @Koss I see your point on us being committed after a meaningful raise but not sure if going all in right here is the best way to get all the chips in the middle especially given we are in position.

    This was a tough spot for me to figure out what bet sizing is optimal.

    I ended up going to $200 and V folded. Given this, I don't think V calls any raise.

    Either way, still not sure what is best. I was deciding between going up to $200 and getting the rest in on the river. Or shoving.
  • ulysses27ulysses27 Red Chipper Posts: 203 ✭✭
    I think the advantage of the smaller size you chose is that you can keep in the weaker parts of V's range like AK with no heart which should be continuing based on price and the fact you should have some bluffs as your range should have more draws. If you shove only the top of his range can call. But since he folded to the raise I'm guessing he didn't have much.
  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 82 ✭✭
    There are a few problems with raising small to try and milk weaker hands. 1. An observant opponent will know this is happening and still fold with the correct frequency (if not more frequently if they can sniff out the exploitative play). 2. You price in all hands that have outs. 3. Half the deck is going to complete some obvious draw and may generate a fold when you bet the river when you could've gotten his whole stack now.

    There are opponents who aren't going to look at stack sizes, board texture, and potential future action and just call based on their hand and price, but I don't think that's going to be the norm at 500NL online. At this level we should usually be using a GTO line until we have the hand history necessary to make exploitative deviations. I'd be curious to see what a solver says but I doubt it's going to pick a raise size that's not a shove.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,382 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The reason you should not raise all in, and that a solver wouldn't raise all in, is what the blocking bet on the turn means. This range is mostly composed of one pair hands that benefit greatly from cheap denial on such a board. For this reason the raise, so long as it is balanced, which always going to be unlikely in these games, will not be so large as to disallow pair + gutter or other draws to continue.

    Always pay attention to price, especially in a game as precise as NL500. When you see a large bet which represents sets, two pair, AA, big draws, etc, now moving all in as well as calling makes a lot more sense. Here it is less valuable to call, although its EV will be similar, given how much chips the nuts want in the pot by showdown.

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