Fold a King hi straight?

harimoraharimora Red Chipper Posts: 4 ✭✭
I had de-activated my HUD for this session. Villain is TAG, VP 19, PF 19 in just 49 hands - in hindsight. No other special info for him. Should I fold or call his shove?

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 103.6 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 62.8 BB
Hero (CO): 122.1 BB
BTN: 364.1 BB
SB: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9:diamond: Q:diamond:

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, SB raises to 9 BB, fold, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (19 BB, 2 players) T:diamond: J:spade: T:club:
SB bets 9.1 BB, Hero calls 9.1 BB

Turn: (37.2 BB, 2 players) K:club:
SB bets 24 BB, Hero calls 24 BB

River: (85.2 BB, 2 players) 4:heart:
SB bets 57.9 BB and is all-in


  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 112 ✭✭✭
    Preflop this hand is on the cusp. Normally I'd fold Q9s to a 3-bet, but against a smaller 3-bet where we have position, I think this can make the cut, especially if the SB is an aggressive 3-bettor. Raising the flop or shoving the turn I think are both viable plays. There's lots of action killing cards that can come here. That flop is good for your range and you have a decent draw. I am pretty sure I can get an overpair to fold at some point in the hand, although the sizing does make firing 3-barrels tricky.

    Whether to call shove/river bets really just becomes an equity calc. 49 hands isn't much to work with, so I'd go with population pool tendencies and a partial profile. I think a TAG at this stake is likely to under-bluff generally as an exploit, and won't have a lot of hands weaker than AQ for value. I'd plug it into equilab giving them a range of all AQ, JJ, TT, KK, JTs, and then ATs, T9s, and partial combos of AK/AA/KQ, maybe 1/2 or 1/3 of them. Then maybe 2 combos of air. My guess is it will show that this river is a fold.

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 5,045 -
    Agree with Koss. 3-bet ranges are narrow and in this case should get trimmed by V's postflop line, so check your equity. It does illustrate one of the problem with calling the 3b with Q9s in the first place, in that many favorable boards for you also smash a tight 3b range, and 2-gappers struggle to make the nuts.
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