Cooler or easy fold? Flopped set vs turned straight.

PokerDruidPokerDruid Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
edited September 1 in Online Poker Hands
No helpful HUD stats on villain but he has been playing a lot of hands and seems to be a recreational player.

BTN: $39.97
SB: $46.95
BB: $51.71
Hero (UTG): $86.53
CO: $110.53

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has 4h 4s
Hero raises to $1.25, CO calls $1.25, fold, fold, BB calls $0.75

Flop : ($4.00, 3 players) 3s Qd 4d
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, fold, BB calls $1.25

Turn : ($6.50, 2 players) 6c
BB checks, Hero bets $7.73, BB raises to $18.55, Hero calls $10.82

River : ($43.60, 2 players) Th
BB bets $30.66 and is all-in, Hero calls $30.66

BB shows 2c 5c (Straight, Six High)
Hero shows 4h 4s (Three of a Kind, Fours)

BB wins $102.42


How do you think I played the hand? My overbet on the turn was targeting flush draws and any Qx combinations or 2pair combos. When he raised me on the turn I put him on 2pair as I don't think he is good enough to raise a flush draw facing an overbet. He could also have a set of 3's in this situation. I found it really hard to believe he had a straight here other than 57. Should this be an easy fold on the river?

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 5,056 -
    Set of 3s you mean, yeah that muddies the waters. It feels like you got an awful lot of bbs in here with the nth nuts, so the river is likely a fold. And given that 75s is in the range, even 66 maybe? I'm not sure a turn overbet is ideal here.

    I'm guessing solvers probably prefer a river call, but against a typical pool you can fold the end exploitatively, but I dunno, I rarely play that deep.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • PapaGiorgioPapaGiorgio Red Chipper Posts: 116 ✭✭
    I agree with Kat's comment about the overbet. Do you think flush draws still call for that bet? It seems like you're in a 50nl game, and I'm not sure if these players are as mindless as a 2nl player. That is, I wouldn't expect a better player to call just on a flush draw without the proper odds or close to them. You might argue he's using his implied odds to justify the call, but the flush is the most obvious draw and unlikely to win an additional 2 pot sized bets unless you have trips. I much prefer a smaller size with your hand to induce calls by the flush draw (unless you know villain is inelastic with flush draws).

    My thought on the check raise is he has 65 at a minimum, with 75 being the next candidate. As such, I call but likely fold to his river bet.

    I am surprised he called PF with 52. Make a note that this player in the BB calls with suited 2 gappers so that if he check raises again, you can include those hand types in his range.
  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 114 ✭✭✭
    I think the flop bet size is a bigger mistake then the overbet. On the flop you have 2 opponents on a board where calling ranges will be fairly static. Qx and flush draws are calling (along with 52s I suppose but lol) and everything else is folding. I'd want to size up here, at least half pot or more.

    Turn is more of the same. You want to keep attacking the Qx and flush draw hands with a good 1/2 to 3/4 bet. Overbets start to get a few more folds than you might want here. While my overbetting skills probably need some work (that's on the study docket after the holiday weekend), I tend to overbet boards that connect with a lot more of their range, and single high card boards just don't do that well. Boards like QQT7 are where I like to work in overbets.

    I definitely don't fold to the turn raise, and by the river I probably just call it off. Rec players don't have as many bluffs but they also sometimes have overplays like QJ+ type hands. It sucks when they show up with a hand that was so trashy you never had it in your range, but the flipside of that is if they are going to be playing that much garbage preflop you are going to win in the long run even if they do occasionally cooler you with a trash hand.
  • PokerDruidPokerDruid Red Chipper Posts: 8 ✭✭
    Koss wrote: »
    I think the flop bet size is a bigger mistake then the overbet. On the flop you have 2 opponents on a board where calling ranges will be fairly static. Qx and flush draws are calling (along with 52s I suppose but lol) and everything else is folding. I'd want to size up here, at least half pot or more.

    Turn is more of the same. You want to keep attacking the Qx and flush draw hands with a good 1/2 to 3/4 bet. Overbets start to get a few more folds than you might want here. While my overbetting skills probably need some work (that's on the study docket after the holiday weekend), I tend to overbet boards that connect with a lot more of their range, and single high card boards just don't do that well. Boards like QQT7 are where I like to work in overbets.

    I definitely don't fold to the turn raise, and by the river I probably just call it off. Rec players don't have as many bluffs but they also sometimes have overplays like QJ+ type hands. It sucks when they show up with a hand that was so trashy you never had it in your range, but the flipside of that is if they are going to be playing that much garbage preflop you are going to win in the long run even if they do occasionally cooler you with a trash hand.

    Totally agree with your bet size reasoning. This was actually going to be my last hand of the session so I think I was a little checked out already. A larger (3/4 pot) bet sizing on the flop makes way more sense as all the flush draws, Qx, straight draws are going to call no matter what.

    The 50NL tables I play at are very fishy at times and I've had people call overbets with only straight or flush draws so I guess you could say it was exploitative. I still thought I was ahead after the turn raise so it was hard for me to fold to a river shove when the flush draw missed.

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