Live 1/3 what to do when min clicked?

LoveFishLoveFish IllinoisRed Chipper Posts: 162 ✭✭
edited September 3 in Live Poker Hands
Line check
4th hand new table just opened. This is a live streamed table. Villain unknown.
1/3 $500 effective
Utg straddle to $6
Folds to us on HJ :Ah:Ac we open $20
Button call $20
Straddle completes $20
Pot $64
Flop :Tc:Jh:2s
Straddle check
We cbet $40
Button call $40
Straddle fold
Pot $144
Turn :Tc:Jh:2s:8s
We bet $80
Button min clicks to $160. He has another $280 behind.

What do you do in this spot?

Answers

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 5,056 -
    Nasty one. I sometimes see that line with stuff like AsTs, but equally you could be buried here. Not sure.
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  • LoveFishLoveFish IllinoisRed Chipper Posts: 162 ✭✭
    @TheGameKat yup I sometimes see people do this with a Jx holding, trying to freeze the river action. Or sometimes a pot sweetener small raise with pair plus flush draw. But min clicks are sometimes nutted to. Not sure what the optimal play in this spot is. Looking for ideas…..
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 5,056 -
    If there's a freeze bet element in this population, it makes folding more difficult obviously. Folding would be my first reaction, but that likely says more about me than NLHE theory. Part of why this is puzzling is that, on a connected board, I'd expect JT and probably all the sets to put in a raise. Equally, maybe it's the second spade that triggers a flopped made hand to raise.
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  • RoblivionRoblivion WisconsinRed Chipper Posts: 352 ✭✭✭
    Seems like you really stepped in it by betting the turn. 4th hand of a new table, you may just have to call here. I think people are more likely to overplay hands when they firat sit down, and if you fold you're sort of letting him know that he can make this play all night and get folds. It does suck though, because so often you're just throwing $80 away.
  • Steve MSteve M Red Chipper Posts: 58 ✭✭
    TheGameKat wrote: »
    Nasty one.
    Seconded.

    It's tough to find a hand you are ahead of right now and at first glance, there seems to be a lot of hands you are behind but when looking at it a little closer, there may not be that much you are really behind.

    Going into the turn, what we know about the villain so far is, he had a hand that only flatted pre-flop on the button and called a flop bet with a player behind him yet to act. So what hands could he have in his range that play this way?

    Pocket Jacks & Pocket 10's - Even early on in a session, when players may play a little tighter until they get a feel for the table, I'd expect a 3-Bet here from the button, especially since you are opening from the HJ with a live Straddle on. Maybe he flats sometimes, but I would think, in the environment you described, it'll have some competent players and I would not worry about these hands too often.

    Pocket 2's & J,10 (can't be certain on suited vs offsuit this early... some players just love J,10) - It seems like this makes sense, but wouldn't these hands be looking to raise the flop? Especially pocket 2's since it doesn't block any TP hands and it can get a ton of value from all your strong hands, AA being one, but also all broadway hands since they will all have picked up a draw (K,Q / A,K)? Not to mention, he'd be bringing in the Straddle for cheap if he had any type of draw. And if he's not raising these hands on this flop, what is he ever raising with for value?

    Now adding in the min-raise on the turn, what hands are we now behind...

    Q,9 - This is the obvious one that got there. Would that be a bit loose of a call pre-flop? Probably but we don't know the player so we don't know how he likes to play his button but let's throw out Q,9o leaving 4 combos of Q,9s. Similar to the idea of raising with J,10 on the flop for value, 3 of these combos have a BD flush draw and I think would be perfect candidates to raise as a bluff since they most likely wouldn't have SDV but can put a ton of pressure on A,K or 9,9 with favorable turn cards. Does Q,9s only flat the flop and just take the equity with a player behind left to act? Yea, Ok I can see that sometimes.

    J,8 - If I give him Q,9s, then I guess we have to give them the last 2 combos of J,8 suited. If he has that, bully for him.

    Pocket 8's - This is an interesting one. I could definitely see him playing this hand this way. Not wanting to 3-bet PF, and not ready to give up to a C-Bet and now that he hits his miracle card, decides to milk ya.

    So putting his story together, I think we are behind Q,9s sometimes, J,8s sometimes and pocket 2's but I don't know how comfortable I am giving him much else. I'm sure I'm overthinking this and giving the average 1-3 player too much credit but I'm just not too worried about much else.

    So fast forwarding to the turn play and what hands are we ahead of still?

    9,8s - This makes some sense to me. Flopped the worst draw, so only decided to call. On the flop, picked up some SDV and is hoping to get to a cheap showdown? Hoping the river goes X,X on blanks and he doesn't face a big river bet from Aces? I guess 9,8 has to consider that the Q may not be a clean out but I could see that still coming along.

    A,9 Spades - This may be reaching, but maybe every so often, this hand is played this way.

    J,X - To your original post, a lot of players try to freeze the action this way.

    So onto your original question of what is most optimal, I hate doing it, but I probably just call here being ready to fold to the inevitable all in on blank rivers but expecting it to go X,X more often than not.

    Aw Hell, maybe you just fold face up and do some advertising for your table image for the rest of the night and being prepared to call down light.

    My main question though would be, did you consider a Check-Raise on the turn at any point? Seems to me like this may be a decent hand to attempt it with targeting all his J,x hands and missed draws.


  • LoveFishLoveFish IllinoisRed Chipper Posts: 162 ✭✭
    @Steve M i did not consider a check raise on the turn no. I didn’t want him to check back turned equity. But my train of thought was very similar to how you thought out your post. I’ll post hand results later.
  • KossKoss Red Chipper Posts: 114 ✭✭✭
    There's an old theory from the 2+2 forums called the "Baluga Whale Theorem" from a poster named Baluga Whale. It comes from much experience from players at low stakes, that basically says "When raised on the turn we should usually fold most 1 pair holdings."

    One thing that's interesting about that is that it's a theorem from an older time. Specifically one where a lot of no limit players were converted from limit. In limit games it was almost mandatory not to raise big hands on the flop and wait to the turn to capture that extra big bet.

    I still think it applies a lot in today's games though. There is still plenty of merit to waiting to the turn to raise. The bet will usually be bigger, and the fact that you double barreled makes it more likely you have a hand that he can extract value from. You have played your hand fairly face up at this point and he is raising. Most opponents are going to be very aware of the likelihood you have an overpair here and won't raise with hands that can't beat one. This bet seems way too big to be an action freezer with something like Jx (of which you block the strongest combos of).

    I'd default towards fold here in a live game for sure. Especially against an unknown.

    One dynamic I'm a bit curious about is you said this is a live streamed table? I've never played one but from what I hear players tend to splash it up a bit on stream? I'm not sure if that's enough to tip this towards a call, but it's at least interesting.
  • elvidaelvida Red Chipper Posts: 12 ✭✭
    edited September 7
    I think that Andrew Brokos' article concerning equity realization speaks to this hand (https://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/issue185/andrew-brokos-realizing-equity.php ). You c-bet 2/3 into a multiway pot and get called. Then on the turn, you bet again (just over half pot) and get raised. You created a larger pot with every street OOP, while the relative strength of your hand got weaker with every street. But by the turn, at these stakes when he raises (no matter the sizing), you are bluff catching with AA in a bloated pot in a population known to underbluff. If you call and are behind, you only have 2 outs (potentially only 1 clean out) to win the pot. With the exception of the A of diamonds, I am thinking that the money will go in (he only has a 60% pot size bet left) and you are still in the same position with no more information. A mistaken value bet with TP by a passive inexperienced player is possible, I guess, but I would think that style of player would just call the turn. However, you don't know anything about this player. As such, to Koss' point, the Baluga rule holds. Fold. If he bluffed you, so be it. I just don't think that this is a bluff or even a questionably played TP often enough to suggest a call is correct. Fold, and as Angelo said, live to fold another day.

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