$1/$2 Situational Question

GoogopqpGoogopqp Red Chipper Posts: 19 ✭✭
I was in the HJ position, roughly $320 in my stack. 8 handed.
Q10o, folded to me so I RFI for $7. $7-10 was the standard for this table for open no strat.
CO, BTTN, BB all call
Flop QQ9 two hearts. My 10 is not a heart.
Checks to me, I continue for $15. BTTN calls, other two fold.
Turn is a 8 not a heart. I bet again $25. BTTN calls.
River 7 of whatever, flushes miss. I think about it and bet $50. BTTN folds.

My thinking in this hand is that they either had a draw or a 9. I feel I could've priced up my bet on the turn to induce a bit more value, but otherwise I felt fine with betting down here. My river bet was mainly targeting a 9 or pocket 10's as I don't see them with a Q here. But I feel betting this river in this spot is a bit of a mistake? The only other hands would be missed draws that all fold or maybe try to steal the river if I check. Or they were slow playing a straight or a better Q. And realistically they should fold a 9 to a third barrel so I'm really targeting nothing here for value that I can see. I'm wondering if this is a better checking spot and just call down a bet?

I'm also aware, Q10o from my position is loose preflop. I plan on correcting that in the future. I'm still getting a bit antsy in these games and making silly plays but I'm working through it and trying to tighten up and just play smarter.

Any thoughts on this hand or my analysis would be greatly appreciated. Thanks so much!
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Comments

  • elvidaelvida Red Chipper Posts: 105 ✭✭
    I don't think you played the hand poorly. The river bet could put you in an "only call when they have it" situation, but I think there is advantage to continuation betting when OOP on the river. If they call, they were going to bet at least 1/2 anyways and I am guessing you would call. If they raise over your bet on the river, you can get away from their likely boats and straights. I think reasonable targets are JJ, TT, 98 which may call as bluff catchers.
  • RedRed Red Chipper Posts: 2,530 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think you overplayed your hand. Villains should not have many QX (except BB) and you beat only Q8 or worst (aka not that many). Also you block TJ and T9 which would be natural worst hand to call you.
    I don't think betting is bad per se, but not for that sizing for that hand.
    - This sizing is ok if you've AQ or KQ, as you can get value from many worst QX.
    - Betting QT is ok, but not for that sizing. I'd prefer a small sizing - the same as you would have if you were betting KK (1/3?)


    Googopqp wrote: »
    My thinking in this hand is that they either had a draw or a 9. I feel I could've priced up my bet on the turn to induce a bit more value, but otherwise I felt fine with betting down here. My river bet was mainly targeting a 9 or pocket 10's as I don't see them with a Q here. But I feel betting this river in this spot is a bit of a mistake? The only other hands would be missed draws that all fold or maybe try to steal the river if I check. Or they were slow playing a straight or a better Q. And realistically they should fold a 9 to a third barrel so I'm really targeting nothing here for value that I can see. I'm wondering if this is a better checking spot and just call down a bet?
    I think that QT has 2 streets of value, not 3. So firing this 3rd barrel on river is probably turning your hand into a bluff (any call on river beats you).

    V could / should have many QX. Depending on his profile, some or many are preflop 3bet, but he still has QT+. Considering you play low stake and V isn't tagged as aggro, he probably has all QX (not 3bet even AQ).
    Plus he has little incentive to raise (would he raise QJ?) - a raise could scare you if you were bluffing or having KK/AA. So V "only" calling doesn't say much on his range.
  • QQueen_playy22QQueen_playy22 Red Chipper Posts: 22 ✭✭
    Hey, thanks for posting the hand.

    I don't mind checking the flop 4 way at an SPR of 11. Our hand doesn't feel good getting all-in and there aren't many cards to be afraid of.

    If a J rolls off we have an open ender and if a heart comes we have a re-draw to a full house.

    While we do likely have the best hand to begin with, a bet will fold out a lot of hands we would not mind keeping in the pot such as AT ; AJ with the A of hearts.

    An Ace or a heart on the turn would likely induce these hands to start betting and you may get 2 streets of value from an Ace or missed draw.

    To conclude I believe that betting ends up folding out a lot of hands and narrows quite significantly our opponents range.

    I'm currently studying Ed Miller's The Course and it has really helped me to understand how to assess the value of a hand. He makes a really good statement;

    "When you flop a good hand, you don't want your opponents to fold so you win the pot. You want to get the hand to showdown and get paid along the way. The value of a good hand comes only at showdown. You turn the hand over and if no one can beat your hand, you win the pot."

    Likewise, if there were no showdowns, all hands would be equally valuable.

    I hope this helps, all the best!

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