Hand w EV question

OddzManOutOddzManOut Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
So I just wanted to mke sure I was calculating EV correctly. Here is the hand:

No Limit Hold'em $0.01/$0.02
Winning Poker Network
5 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com: Poker HUD for Mac and Windows

Stacks:
UTG - UTG ($2.00)
CO - Hero ($1.67)
BTN - BTN ($2.26)
SB - SB ($2.54)
BB - BB ($1.64)

Preflop: ($0.03, 5 players) Hero is CO with Ah As
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.05, BTN raises to $0.17, 1 fold, BB calls $0.15, Hero raises to $0.29, BTN calls $0.12, BB calls $0.12

Flop: 6h 4c 9s ($0.88, 3 players - BTN: $1.97, BB: $1.35, Hero: $1.38)
BB bets $0.44, Hero calls $0.44, 1 fold

Turn: 3d ($1.76, 2 players - BB: $0.91, Hero: $0.94)
BB bets $0.91 (all-in), Hero calls $0.91

River: 8d ($3.58, 2 players, 1 all-in - BB: $0.00, Hero: $0.03)

Total Pot: $3.58
BB shows 9c 9d (three of a kind, Set of Nines [9s 9d 9c 8d 6h])
Hero shows Ah As (a pair of Aces [As Ah 9s 8d 6h])

BB wins $3.41 from main pot

I am calculating the EV from the point where there was $1.76 in the pot and I put in .94. So I looked up my in poker cruncher anf it was estimated my AA would beat his range ( I used VPIP as his range, which was 21%) . SO the winning side of the equation would have been ($2.70 x.85) = $2.30. Estimated in Poker Cruncher M y losing side would have been the 1.76 -.94 = .27 . In poker cruncher I put ion range of 21% based on his VPIP. Am I calculating this right?

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 5,479 -
    The way I do the EV calculation at the decision point of the all-in call is as follows. You are calling $0.91 to create a total pot of $3.58, thus the required equity to call is 0.91/3,58 ~ 0.25 or 25%.

    I don't know what "1.76-.94=.27" means in your post. The way to use PokerCruncher here it to plug in AA versus villain's range to see what equity you have. If that equity is greater than the 25% calculated above, you call.

    However, there are a couple of far more important issues here. First, your 4-bet is far too small. I saw this in another HH, looks like you're just min-clicking it back in these spots. Don't do that.

    If the action was heads-up pre between you and BTN (i.e, assume BB folded) your OOP 4-bet size should be around 2.8x the 3b, so about $0.48. With the BB calling, I'd 4-bet to at least $0.60.

    Second, you say you gave villain 21% range based on VPIP and used that in PokerCruncher. This is a major error for two reasons.

    First, VPIP of 21% tells you BB voluntarily put money into the pot 21% of the time averaged over all preflop actions. Here, they first call and 3-bet and then a 4-bet. That range is likely much tighter than 21%.

    Second, whatever range you give them preflop, you cannot apply that same range at the all-in decision pot. It implies that the BB will take every hand in that preflop range, and take the bet-bet line as played. In practice, there's no way they would do that. The range that they bet flop and bet turn is much tighter (and involves very specific hands).

    Incidentally, a much simpler way of looking at the hand is to use SPR. With SPR < 2 and the nut overpair, you're simply never folding.
    Moderation In Moderation
  • OddzManOutOddzManOut Red Chipper Posts: 15 ✭✭
    Thank you , all good useful info. . I will definitely use that in future games. I need to go review the SPR as I thought that it a very useful practical concept. All these concepts are great, but it takes a bit pf practice implementing them, so I want to review the betting portion of core. It would make sense to tighten up my range in three betting as I am apparently three betting way too low. Thank you again.
  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Las VegasPosts: 5,479 -
    Welcome. It is a process that takes time, but you'll get there.
    Moderation In Moderation

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