a maths problem?

aaarrgghaaarrggh Red Chipper Posts: 85
edited September 2014 in General Concepts
This hand comes from a quiz book from a well known author. I asked the question you will see below and after the first reply i never heard from the author again, maybe my question was dumb but i still would like to understand why.

5 handed MTT final table
Blinds 3000/6000/600
Starting stacks
Hero BTN 91427
SB 41593
BB 57426
UTG 39404
CO 40150

UTG shoves over the blinds for 38804
HERO has A5o
The author says: A5o is never in good shape vs UTG range, author assigns UTG a 47% range and says A5o is not good enough to call. Easy fold!
I wrote the following to him:
There are 12000 in the pot
After UTG push the Pot is 50804
if BTN call the Pot is 89608
38804/89608 = 0.43
Assigning UTG a 37% range (much tighter than the 47 you indicate for
his push) AND adding ANY Ace to BTN range, equilab still gives BTN
a 55% equity, way more than the required 43%
To this the author correctly replied that i mustn't use a range but i have to use the actual hand to answer the quiz
so this i what i did and replied the following:
Point taken, but exactly A5o still wins 45% of the time even against a 30% range...
Unfortunately the author never wrote back so i am left with the doubt that maybe i just asked another stupid question, can anybody help clarify?

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,057 -
    I wish the author would have explained things more clearly. So the call in a vacuum is +EV (to the tune of about 1bb).

    EV = (.5*50804) - (.5*38804)

    However, you have to factor in the two players left to act who when they call your shove, cripple your equity.

    That all being said, you are risking a large chunk of your stack and when you have 15bb as chip leader it doesn't seem necessary to risk a table shift for such a small +EV play. Also remember, if we are wrong on his shoving range, this can go sour REALLY quickly (especially when factoring in the two players who haven't acted yet).

    I'd fold this as well
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  • aaarrgghaaarrggh Red Chipper Posts: 85
    thanks for the quick reply SplitSuit, this makes sense to me and i am pretty sure the author correctly folds exactly because the blinds are still in play, i wish he would have taken the time to think through his reply to my question but i guess this is why i signed off his site and into redchip :-)
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,857 -
    This is essentially a SNG at this point. In my STT training video for the WSOP I mention that your calling range versus shoves should be very tight. I recommended that you look at the 10BB chart of Push Fold Charts for STT and only call shoves with those marked "3". If you went a little tighter on the edges, I would not fault you for it.

    A6o is outside the calling range, I fold it also. With two more behind, I get more conservative. The math has already been done, play with this short of stacks is pretty mechanical. Maybe change things up a little because of extreme NIT or LAG tendencies but for the most part you do well just to follow the math.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
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