Slowplaying QQ

Ron KRon K Red Chipper Posts: 119
edited September 2014 in Online Poker Hands
In this hand I flop top set on a dry board with an opponent taking an aggressive line . I actually bet the flop and get raised . I'm not sure if it's for value or as a bluff , in any case I pretty much have a lock on the hand and figure I'll just let him keep firing . If he has one of the other sets the moneys going all in anyway so I wanted to keep his bluff range in the pot. I was thinking of jamming the turn, but I thought the better play was to call and get him to hang himself on the river. (After the hand I was kicking myself for not jamming the turn but after further thought I like my play =) How would you have played it ?

[video]

Thank You for Your Time :)

Comments

  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,876 -
    Can you change the options on the videos so Villain's cards are shown at some point? I deduce he had JT, since you have the third nuts and 56 makes no sense at all.

    I played this same hand last night. My Villain caught runner runner for a backdoor air-high flush. So I have thought about this a bit already.

    What good comes to you if you flat the turn:

    1.) Villain air-ball barrels the river, sometimes.
    2.) Villain makes a bad value bet on the river.
    3.) Villain makes a bad check call on the river.

    What bad happens on the river if you flat the turn:

    4.) Villain catches the nuts when he has JT and gets there on an 8 outer.


    How do these scenarios play out if you jam the turn?

    1.) You miss this value from Air Jordan
    2.) He calls the jam almost every time anyways
    3.) He sometimes calls turn, he sometimes folds hands that would improve on the river and still lose.

    4.) He needs 6.25:1 to call for the open-ender but is getting 2.4:1 Does he make this horrible call?

    How likely is Scenario 1 versus Scenario 4 specifically with him holding JT?

    Let's assume Scenario 1 happens a certain percentage of the 84% of the time he misses.
    Let's assume he folds the open-ender to your jam 100% of the time.

    Let us only consider him holding JT.

    Conveniently the all-in pot is $100ish. Current pot is $40)

    The 84% of the time that he misses then bluffs and we call, our final stack is

    (bluff% * 0.84 * finalPot)

    The 84% of the time he misses and we shove and he folds our final stack is

    0.84 * ((1-bluff%) * (currentPot + $30)) $30 we jam and is uncalled.

    We pay him off 100% of the time when he hits. So our final stack when we hope for him to bluff:

    0.84 * b% * 100
    + 0.84 * (1-b%) * (40 + 30)
    + 0.16 * 0
    ==============================
    84*b% + 59*(1-b%)

    59 + 25*b%

    Against specifically JT if he never bluffs the river, we walk away with $59
    Against specifically JT if he always bluff the river, we walk away with $84

    Against specifically JT we jam the turn, he folds, we walk away with $72 if he never calls.

    If he is going to bluff more than 50% of the time with JT, against that hand we should flat.

    59+(25*50%) = 71.5

    This is specifically against his JT airball range that properly folds his open-ender on the turn.

    Looking at this, I think I just jam.

    The pot is big compared to our stack, he needs to bluff a lot and plays perfectly when he hits. His final bet is pretty small versus the pot, so he can not expect a lot of fold equity. With low fold equity, his bluffing percentage is not going to be that high.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • Ron KRon K Red Chipper Posts: 119
    Mr. Hull ,

    Thank you for this analysis.

    I thought it would get people thinking more if I did not include the final hand and was even thinking of not showing the winner either, but haven't figured out how to do that .

    The problem here is that he has a lot more than just JT in his range and he only plays perfectly 'if' he hits one of his outs in a small piece of his range and if he doesn't, he might decide to bluff certain river cards or bluff any river card.
    (I understand his fold equity is low but he may want me to call the value part of his range here as well.) He might also have some Qx that he thinks is good. If his range includes value and bluffs it looks something like this---> 99,33,AQs,KQs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T8s,AQo,KQo which I have 93% equity against. Even if I include JTo in his range I'm still 89%. I don't want to blow him off the hand here with that small of a chance to get drawn out on.

    On the other hand I think he calls 'some' turn shoves as well. I see merits for both plays. I just think him being out of position gives him a chance to make more 'mistakes' in this scenario and gives me the best chance to maximize profit.

    It's awesome to talk about this hand from multiple angles . Love it!

    Thanks Again :)
  • ChipTraderChipTrader Red Chipper Posts: 178
    Ron great idea to make the video.

    Ok right from the opening raise I hated your line 3bb? utg ? If your going to open there either limp with the intention of re-raise or 5 bb make them pay for their positional advantage.

    2. The min bet on the flop and his raise was the point were you should have come over top your way ahead and he only has a set or draws so again make him pay !!!

    The bottom line is your lack of aggression was bad through the whole hand in my opinion.

    Bad suck out on the river but hey that's poker and thats why you should never let them get there and take the money that you have while its there. Value betting this thin is never a good idea on that board imho
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,876 -
    Limping to reraise pre-flop is a move I have never liked. Live players rarely use this as a bluff, it is supposedly a tricky move, but it really just puts their hand face up. Unless you have a really specific table dynamic I just don't like the limp-raise. I admit I have done this under very specific conditions:

    * I was traveling, so I was an unknown in a two table card room with very unsophisticated players.
    * I was UTG.
    * I limped then put in a healthy raise and got folds all around.
    * I was semi-bluffing with A4s, not Aces.

    If you are willing to make that move lite, then I am more of an advocate. Most players, most of the time only do this for value. If you are never bluffing in a certain situation, how can you realistically get value.

    I think 3BB is a fine opening raise, it seems pretty standard on-line from most positions.

    The flop bet was not a min bet, it was just a smidge under a half pot bet on board that has exactly one draw on it when he has the deck absolutely crippled because he has top set and over pairs seem unlikely at best.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks

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