AKo squeeze middle stages MTT

BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
edited August 2015 in Live Poker Hands
(Note to pros: I would definitely be in favor of adding an MTT forum, although I'm not positive if it would get enough traffic).

Bovada $30 buy in, 10k guaranteed. This hand represents a fairly common tournament spot where I still don't feel completely confident.

Blinds 200/400/40. 200ish runners remaining.

Hero (in small blind) has 20.5k (50bb). This is a top 20ish stack in tourney and the structure of this tournament is better than many online tournaments (15min levels) so we are sitting pretty and dont feel like we need to push the envelope right now (although of course we want to be taking all +EV spots).

Hijack has 40k, table chip leader, top 5 stack in tournament, has been very active.
Button has 12k, no reads.

To the hand: (I'm going to leave out all analysis for now to see what others think first)

Folds to HJ, who opens to 1k.
Button flats for 1k.
Hero in SB with :Ah:Ks . Hero 3bets to 4k. (thoughts on 3bet and sizing?)
HJ calls 4k.
Button calls 4k (leaving only 8k behind).

Flop (pot 12,680): :Jh:8d:5h

Hero (16,750 remaining) bets 4444. (Thoughts on bet and sizing?)
HJ calls 4444.
Button folds.

Turn (21,568): :Jh:8d:5h:5c

Hero (12,300 remaining)??

Comments

  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    Folds to HJ, who opens to 1k.
    Button flats for 1k.
    Hero in SB with :Ah:Ks . Hero 3bets to 4k. (thoughts on 3bet and sizing?)
    HJ calls 4k.
    Button calls 4k (leaving only 8k behind).
    The raise size seemed large, but you get called in both spots, so guess I could be wrong. I do like the squeeze, because more often than not it should get at least 1 spot to fold. didn't happen, gotta move forward.

    Flop (pot 12,680): :Jh:8d:5h

    Hero (16,750 remaining) bets 4444. (Thoughts on bet and sizing?)
    HJ calls 4444.
    Button folds.
    SPR would make me think we need to commit or not, but it's such a bloated pot with button's overcall, I don't like the idea of stacking off with 40 bigs. Maybe the rare exception where we can bet/fold with a 1.3:1 SPR? Not sure on this

    I generally bet 1/3 if I'm first to act, so the size is consistent with my c-bets. We do have the nut flush draw blocker, but the SPR is not in our favor with how we can utilize it. Tough spot, but I think I lean towards cbetting in it. Hard to float OOP if someone else bets, and but think our hand is too strong to give up on quite yet. How I feel - CR<CF<CC<B, betting isn't a clear choice, but seems better than the alternatives to me.
    Turn (21,568): :Jh:8d:5h:5c

    Hero (12,300 remaining)??
    A check kind of feels like we're waiving the white flag here, but I don't want to compound the issue of just having Ace high with one card to come. Not sure how often the jam of 12.3 into 21.5 is generating folds, but leaning towards not wanting to put my tourney on the line with it. Still have 30 BBs if we let it go (given V bets to our check). I even like the 5 better than most other turns, but just too hard to continue for me

    Think we got unlucky in this spot having a super-bloated pot after Button overcalls, and one of the few players in the tourney that can end us stuck around as well, but doesn't make me think that we played it wrong. I like the squeeze and I like the CBet, I'd just make the squeeze a little smaller(3.5k).
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 441 ✭✭✭
    (Note to pros: I would definitely be in favor of adding an MTT forum, although I'm not positive if it would get enough traffic).

    I think a MTT forum would be cool. Especially now that Gripsed is on the team.

    Folds to HJ, who opens to 1k.
    Button flats for 1k.
    Hero in SB with :Ah:Ks . Hero 3bets to 4k. (thoughts on 3bet and sizing?)
    HJ calls 4k.
    Button calls 4k (leaving only 8k behind).

    I think the bet sizing is fine, but you could make it 3500 as -ev suggested. I don't know why the button is flatting your 3 bet with that stack?

    Flop (pot 12,680): :Jh:8d:5h

    Hero (16,750 remaining) bets 4444. (Thoughts on bet and sizing?)
    HJ calls 4444.
    Button folds.

    I like the c-bet.

    Turn (21,568): :Jh:8d:5h:5c

    Not much you can do here. Stinks that you have such a beautiful hand OOP and miss. I would think HJ is opening wide, but him calling your 3 bet narrows the range a bit? I think you can check fold here. Still leaves you with 30 bigs correct? So it's def a manageable stack. Been in this situation more then once as well. Sooooo hard not to ship it here. As -ev said would jamming really generate a fold from the big stack?
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    Lauren wrote:
    I would have played this hand a little differently, but i am wondering what the plan for the hand is??? When you made the raise pre-flop was this for value or a bluff?
    Value/iso/squeeze!
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    but i am wondering what the plan for the hand is?

    When I 3bet, it is with the intention of calling a 4bet shove or 5bet jamming over a small 4bet. We aren't always thrilled to be getting all in with AKo when 50 blinds deep, but in this specific situation (against an aggressive open from HJ, with a squeeze spot from the small blind), both players' ranges should be quite wide so we absolutely need to be getting in with AK. I think I would reluctantly get in with as low as AQo and 99 or 88 in this spot.
    I'd just make the squeeze a little smaller(3.5k).

    Yeah, I think 3.5k could have worked as well. I don't normally 3bet this large, but I was looking for the maximum leverage point, the raise size that would not allow villain to re-raise small without committing to the entire stack. I worried if I raised to 3k, he could click back for 5 or 5.25k and put the pressure back on me. (Having this happen would be fine with this specific hand, but I want to be doing this with worse hands as well, that wouldn't want to face a small 4bet). 3.5k might have done the trick though. The large size is also nice that it discourages flats from HJ and shows that we are fully committed to Button's stack (although apparently he didn't get the memo).

    So far, both ev and Jules have called for a bet flop, check/give up on turn line. I am wondering if there is anyone out there that would just advocate giving up on the flop. This is hardly the wettest board in the world, but I still think we are unlikely to get two folds from a small cbet. So I'm not sure we should be cbetting unless we are willing to barrel the turn. When HJ called the flop bet, I felt his range was some Js but a lot of medium pairs (TT-66), 9T, and hearts (although I am blocking many of the heart draw combos with the :Ah ). So I almost saw shoving as a merge bet, to possibly fold out smaller pairs, and for value/protection against the draws. I did end up shipping, and HJ called with :8c:Tc for a pair of 8s. I think, as EV pointed out, that we don't have quite enough left on the turn to have real fold equity against a hand like this. So maybe we should cbet even smaller on the flop? Or perhaps the best line is just check/give up on the flop.
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    I'm not opposed to giving up on the flop, but think it really doesn't hit our opponents range, so I'd rather barrel. Lot of blinds in the middle for me to give up on without a flop stab. Such and obscure spot though. Worst case scenario happened when you raised preflop and both players flat. Gotta make the best with what cards we are dealt though
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    Lauren wrote:
    I think it is either a shove or a check/ fold on the flop. the pot was 15,000 on the flop so if you are going to continue with the bluff a bet of 4444 isn't going to get any folds. you have 16,000 left in your stack which is perfect for a pot sized shove...
    12.5k pot to 16.5k stack size. We're polarizing with a jam here and doesn't seem like a great way to allow our opponents to make mistakes. Personally think we are too deep stacked for a flop jam.
  • SaintsTigersSaintsTigers Red Chipper Posts: 238 ✭✭
    I'd raise a little more pre-flop in order to get more fold equity. There's good value in just taking the pot down uncontested if possible. Antes are in play and you have an open and a call in the center. Moreover, the flop will only improve your hand about 1/3 of the time, to say nothing of you being out of position. So put some more chips in with a premium hand.

    As played, a c-bet seems reasonable. In game, I'd make my decision based on how these two specific villains had been playing.

    Once the bottom card pairs the turn, I'd just give up. It doesn't make the board look scary. And you were called by both players. They can't both be floating. If they're both drawing there is a decent chance the street will check around, getting you closer to showdown. So preserve your stack and check.
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 441 ✭✭✭
    Nick I actually had a similar situation in the satty I played the other day. I was in the SB with AK off. I had just lost about 12k so I was back to almost ss of 8k. Last hand before break. Middle position was a fishy asian gentleman who limped in and aggro young kid in the CO raised. I figured the aggro kid was raising wide and I was going to reraise, but thought if I do that they will run since I hadn't been playing many hands. I ended up flatting and got very lucky on the flop. I donk bet the flop that had an :A? and Asian guy called. Aggro kid folded and I ended up doubling my stack plus a few more chips thanks to the fish. He said he never put me on an ace because I didn't re raise. Aggro kid sat there with his mouth open.. LOL So depending on the players and since you are OOP with a hand like AK what is wrong with flatting? I do prefer to take a more aggro line, but sometimes it just works.
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    @Lauren I really don't like overshoving on the flop, I would never do this with an overpair or AJ (which is our main value range) so I wouldn't do it as a bluff either. Sadly, button over-calling pre-flop really mucked things up, if he hadn't we could c-bet 1/3 pot on flop and have a pot-sized shove behind for the turn, which would be ideal.

    @SaintsTigers wow I didn't expect anyone to advocate 3betting larger, this felt like a huge 3bet already for me. I worry that if we go much larger than this, we lose the perception of fold equity, as we are already raising to 25% of our stack as is.

    @Jules Yeah, i just really don't like flatting here from the SB. I hate flatting from the small blind in general because I don't want to play OOP in a multi-way pot, and this is even more true for a hand like AKo. And if we are 3betting pretty wide, we need to have AK in that range. In your example, you hit an A on the flop. But remember, it will be easy for us to get all our chips in when we hit our A or our K on the flop. What we need to be thinking about is how we have the best chance of winning the pot those times we dont hit the A or K.

    Im still on the fence about best overall line to take here, but I'm leaning towards check-give up on the flop. Would love to hear from a pro.
  • SaintsTigersSaintsTigers Red Chipper Posts: 238 ✭✭

    @SaintsTigers wow I didn't expect anyone to advocate 3betting larger, this felt like a huge 3bet already for me. I worry that if we go much larger than this, we lose the perception of fold equity, as we are already raising to 25% of our stack as is.


    Actually, looking at your stack size again, I don't really like a c-bet as into 2 opponents on the flop. And I must've been tired my first post because, yeah, 4k is big enough sizing preflop.

    A shove is also a valid option to consider in my opinion. Yes you have 50 actual big blinds but it's really only about 30 effective big blinds. A shove could look weak/fishy to your opponents who may consider it a mis-click or scared bet. So there's a reasonable chance you'll get called by a worse ace (and if you do get called by a pair it is still +ev because of the dead money in the pot). Or they'll just fold a good chunk of their range so you have max fold equity. Lastly, shoving avoids your awkward post-flop spot.
  • theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
    The good news about this flop is that it's unlikely to hit your opponents. The bad news is that it's a tough spot to bluff two people. When you bet the flop, what hands are you expecting to fold? It's hard to imagine the button folding any pair given the huge pot, low flop and the fact that 1/3 of his stack is in the pot. While your small bet size of 1/3 pot only needs to succeed 1/4 times to be successful, it gives villains great odds to call (4:1) so they are right to stick around with any pair or decent draw.

    I don't think you're succeeding even 25% of the time on a flop bluff. I would check. If big stack checks and button jams I might be tempted to call. But if big stack bets more than 5K I'm giving up.
  • theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
    I did some in-depth mathematical analysis on the turn to analyze my gut feeling that a jam is a bad idea. Hopefully it's clear to follow and doesn't look too much like a homework assignment.

    The pot is 21,600.

    If you jam, villain will either call or fold. Let’s say p is the probability he calls. Then 1-p is the probability he folds.

    When he calls you’re probably beat, but you can still catch up, or in a few cases he may call with draws that you're currently beating. I’ll use x for your equity in the pot against villain’s calling range.
    When villain calls, the pot is 46,200. Your cEV is your equity in the pot against his calling range * size of pot. or x*46,200.

    When villain folds your cEV is 21,600.

    So your total equity (cEV) = p*(x*46,200) + (1–p)*21,600.

    If your cEV is greater than your current stack size 12,300, then the jam is profitable. If it’s less than 12,300 it’s unprofitable.

    So what's left is to estimate the probability villain calls (p) and hero's equity against his calling range (x).

    On the turn if you jam, the pot will be 33K and villain will have to call 12K. he's getting good odds so he should be calling pretty often. What do you think is his range?

    I'm assuming he is weighted toward one pair hands- most likely a jack, but may call the turn with some pockets 99-TT, a few combos of slow-played sets that are now boats, some flush draws, and some OESDs (T9s and 76s). Your Ah blocks a number of the flush draws he might otherwise have and makes his overall range stronger.

    Let's assume his range is {88-KK, AJ, KJo, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 76s, 55, KhQh, KhTh, QhTh, 9h8h, 8h7h} That's 110 combos. While I think some are less likely, it's hard to see many made hands in that range that fold to a turn shove. You can possibly fold out 99 and TT, the flush draws that don't have a pair or straight draw to go along some of the OESDs, maybe some of the weaker top pairs.
    Let's say his calling range on the turn is {JJ-KK, 55, 88, QJs+ KJo+, T9s, KhQh, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h}
    That's 80 combos out of 110 or 73%. That means you only fold out 27% of the hand he called the turn. Your equity against this calling range is an abysmal 15%.

    Now just plug into the formula
    cEV = p*(x*46,200) + (1–p)*21,600.
    cEV = 0.73(0.15*46,200) + (0.27)*21,600.
    cEV = 0.73*6930 + 0.27*21,600
    cEV = 5059 + 5832
    cEV = 10,891

    Shoving loses 1410 chips or -3.75 BB which would be a big mistake.
    There are a lot of assumptions put into this estimate about villain’s range, but it’s hard to imagine enough of the assumptions being off in the same direction to the extent where a shove is profitable.
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    Wow thanks for doing this clubber! great work. We can use this info to work backwards and find the best line. I think you show very well that shoving the turn is bad. But I would argue that stabbing small on the flop wont be profitable unless we follow up with a turn barrel. Putting both together, I feel very good about landing on checking to give up the flop as the best play. If only I could convince myself to do it in game!

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