1/2 River Raise-size Decision

JamleecoJamleeco Red Chipper Posts: 10
edited August 2015 in Live Poker Hands
1/2 game. I'm on the button with $600 and villain is in sb with $400.

I'm on the button with :Ks:2s with one limper. I raise to $12. The sb calls, the bb calls and the limper calls.

short history: I had erroneously bluffed into the limper my 2nd hand at the table only to discover he was the biggest calling station I'd seen in a long time. His "magic" raise size to always call was 12, more and he often folded. I wanted to play him heads up, I had already stacked him once. I thought 12 would achieve that goal.

Pot:$48 Flop :Kh:6h:Kd Checked to me I bet out 20 hoping for one suspicious call with a 6 or pair a little larger than a 6. SB checkraises to 50, I just call. Table has been incredibly staightforward so at this point I put him on :Kc ?X? which is bad since I have worst kicker possible. I'm thinking this is what Ed Miller calls an event and it ain't a good one. If he continues strongly, thinking of folding.(others folded obviously)


Pot: 148 Turn: :2d !! Villain bets $50. I call. I'm thinking definitely :Kc ?X? or possibly :6? :6?

Pot:248 River: :4h Villain bets 50 , has approx.235 behind.

So I'm thinking if he had :A? :Kc or even :Kc :Q? against a button raise with obvious weakest player at table limping, I'm getting popped preflop. A small K, say :Kc :8? or smaller (excluding same hand and :Kc :6? ) not sure how big a raise he will call, especially a river raise. :Kc :J? :Kc :T? maybe a little bigger. Of course, :6? :6? and maybe get all in. His raise size and betting size seemed cautious to me. I don't have a big read on villain , he came from another table with 300 and won the one pot off the calling station. Making it worse, I'm in the 9 hole and he's in the first, I can see absolutely nothing of the villain.

So, my question. What would be my best raise size, from min to all-in. I want to get more value, and unless he has the unlikely hand :Kc :6? or now :Kc :4? , neither of which I'm worried about, my raise size is my only concern.

I appreciate any input, not only the size opinion but what reasoning should I be applying here? Also, any comments on my play any time before the river also appreciated.

Thanks, JC

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,069 -
    As played, rip it. If you feel he has Kx, will he really fold top trips? I doubt it, and thus I rip (and expect that he has no Kx boats imo)
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  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You don't think he might have a flush JC? As my Asian friend would say "Just go aww-in, no more worry!" Don't overthink think it, this is a big pot hand. If he has Kx, 66 or a flush he's pretty often calling whatever you bet.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    Fist pump shove?
  • JamleecoJamleeco Red Chipper Posts: 10
    Thank you for the responses. I raised 100 and he called with :As:Kc I felt like a dope because of course I realized after the fact that he would have called an all in. But I wanted to separate my thinking from knowing the result. I did indeed overthink it :(
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    He's played this exactly like he has KJ, and now doesn't know what to do on the river, hence the scared blocking bet. I know it is tempting to min raise, but it's a stinky move that destroys your play in the long run and exposes your strat to the table when the inevitable showdown occurs. The better move is to rip in your entire range that ended up here, K2 apparently being a humorous part of it, and put the pressure on him to make a mistake.

    If he folds, show the deuce and tell him you knew he was bluffing.
  • ChibberChibber Red Chipper Posts: 380 ✭✭✭
    Yeah you have to shove here on the river. Fold flop.<br /><br />*** Unknown response from http://78.47.96.11/api2.0. Error 2: Can't use string ("h"post_url":"http:\/\/forum.redc"...) as a HASH ref while "strict refs" in use at /usr/local/cleantalk/bin/moderate.pl line 1218.
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