misplayed aces and get nut worst flop

theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
edited August 2015 in Live Poker Hands
1/2 NL 135 effective

Villain is a 30ish woman. She is on her second buy in and is playing slightly more aggro to get it back, but I haven't seen anything too crazy.

Pre-flop. I raise :Ah:Ad from MP to 10. Folds to villain in the BB who re-raises to 25. At the time I think 4-betting may lead her to fold hands like tens or AQ and her stack is short enough that I can safely shove most flops and expect to usually be ahead, so I decided to flat.

Flop (51) :Qs:Js:5s Villain leads for 30. While I expect her to lead most flops, this is particularly bad since QQ and JJ are possibly in her 3-betting range and both my aces are red. Do I stick with my original plan and shove? Should I call? If I call what's the plan on the turn?

Comments

  • HappySumoHappySumo Red Chipper Posts: 58
    When a 1/2 player re-raises they have a very good hand- I would 4- bet pre-flop and expect to get called. For this re-raise range I would put Villain on TT+, AK. Maybe AQ.

    This flop sucks for sure, but donk bets usually mean weakness from Villains. I expect that she doesn't like this flop too much either. She will have JJ, QQ and then pairs with a flush draw. I think you shove here and get called by worse.
  • jimbo123jimbo123 Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
    I think I just about get this in here, assuming a range of JJ+ AQ+ AK+ your equity is just over 48%. I took out 50% of the JJ and AQ combos as I don't think all players re-raise withthese. I also omitted hands like AsJx which will stack off as well, and of course, I didnt account for what I like to call the "live poker spazz factor". There are only 6 combos of AK as I assume that shes only betting/going with it with either the As or Ks

    poker_thing.png

    Its not exactly ideal but I'd go with it here.

    Edit: Made a small mistake, vs AsKx we're 58% not 42% which brings up our equity to 53% ship iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit.
  • SaintsTigersSaintsTigers Red Chipper Posts: 238 ✭✭
    I'd raise again preflop. Yes you might lose vale from Ax and other hands that fold, but by raising you can get a ton of value from hands you dominate while giving her a bad price to crack your aces.

    As played, I would just smoothe call the flop planning to make a decision on the turn based on the lady's bet size and my live read. If she bets big on the turn, I'd lean towards folding. Yes by just calling on the flop you've crossed the 33% commitment threshold. While doing that and folding is not ideal, it's better than putting the rest of your stack in way behind.
  • rec_playerrec_player Red Chipper Posts: 46
    I think you should have raised pre to more like $12-$15, maybe even to $18, depending on the amount where people start folding at your game.

    She re-raises to 40-50, you min raise to $80 she calls.

    now the flop is a no-brainer, since you only have $55 behind.

    My experience is 1/2 players don't fold to $10 bets, and don't really distinguish between $12-16. So with AA you might as well raise bigger and get more money in the pot.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    She's gotten more aggressive... go with your read, however you play the hand. Otherwise, what's the point of observing anything?

    The posters who want you to 4 bet are right. The issue is always forcing your opponents to make the mistake, and with AA you have the number one mistake inducing hand.

    As played stick with your plan. You've already surrendered the hammer preflop, but just calling is grabbing it back from her and applying it to your head.
  • JamleecoJamleeco Red Chipper Posts: 10
    A lot of good responses here. I wanted to ask, you had a read on her, what was your perception of her read on you? Is your image really tight and she would put you on :A? :A? or :K? :K? only? I have nothing against flatting aces once in awhile, but I wouldn't here because of stack size. I , and I'm no expert, like a small 4 bet in this situation, say 40 (that's 25 into a 50 pot).

    I think she's come over the top but if not , you've pot-committed you both. Good because you should win her stack, but also no hard decision for you. No matter what the flop or what she does, my money is going in on flop. I hate tough decisions, have her making those decisions.

    These spots are what make this forum such a wonderful place. Whatever you do or did everyone on this forum probably has done it or will. I am finding a lot of great responses here and of course , poker lovers all. Run Good
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You have 2 options in this hand given the stack sizes and preflop action.

    1) reraise preflop
    2) flat preflop and commit on any flop

    Anything else in inconsistent. If you're going to get cold feet on some flops, then don't ever, ever just flat preflop. Conversely, if you're only going to flat preflop, don't ever, ever get cold feet on some flops.

    You are committed.

    If you're worried about her folding preflop, then just min-raise. No one with a good hand can resist calling the min-raise. She might overshove, of course. Or, she might just call, but then you've still got a better situation than you do now - $100 in the pot with $85 stacks - i.e. SPR < 1.

    The great thing about this is that even if you promised to pay her off on any flop - even if she showed you her cards and you knew you were beat - she cannot beat you this way in the long run. The question is, would you be willing to play the hand this way with her a thousand times in a row? If so, then you should play it that way this one time.

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