Facing a check-raise from potentially draw heavy range

theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
edited August 2015 in Live Poker Hands
This hand came up last night at 1/2 NL but it seems like a good example of a more common problem.

Villain has been much tighter than average pre-flop but we managed to clash in two hands.
Hand 1 I MP and he called on the button with another caller in between. On a flop of :9s:8h:2h He put in a hefty raise over my c-bet which I called and then jammed the :Tc turn. I called and he won the pot with :Jd:Ts. A half hour later he 3-bet me from the button and we ended up all in on the turn. He had aces and I had flopped top set. Since losing that pot he has upped his aggression a bit but there's not a big enough sample to know if it's tilt or he's just getting more playable hands.

1/2 250 effective. Hero raises 10 MP with :Ac:Qh Button calls and villain calls from SB.

Flop (30) :Ad:8d:5s. villain checks. Hero bets 22 button folds and villain raises to 75, leaving himself about 160 behind. Given that the villain has shown the ability to push hard with his draws and the board has both straight and flush draw possibilities, I'm not considering folding here. My decision is between calling now or shoving.

I think I am ahead and can get value from his draws. So I think a shove will be profitable. However, the turn card can significantly change the equity in the hand.
Is it better to call with the plan of committing on safe turns and giving up on the ones most likely to hit his draws while committing on safe turns?

Comments

  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    I think I am ahead and can get value from his draws. So I think a shove will be profitable.

    Doesn't this answer your question?

    If you are correct in your assessment here, then why would you wait for the turn and give him better information? Jam and put him to a decision.
  • theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
    Skors3 wrote:
    If you are correct in your assessment here, then why would you wait for the turn and give him better information? Jam and put him to a decision.

    The main argument for calling is that more information benefits both players, but should benefit the player with position more.

    Arguments in favor of shoving:
    - If I have more than 50% equity against his calling range, any time more chips go in the pot I benefit
    - There's a chance villain will fold out his equity which is good for me as well.
    - I avoid getting bluffed. While I think villain has a number of draws in his range, it's hard to say which cards complete his draws. For example he may be raising on a straight draw but bluffing turns that complete the flush.
    - There are only a few turn cards that improve my hand while there are a number of turn cards that could improve villain's hand.

    Arguments in favor of calling:
    - While villain will benefit from a free card, that information also benefits hero. Since hero has position, he should be better able to take advantage of that information. On turn cards that significantly strengthen villain's range, hero may be able to cut losses to $75 instead of $240.
    - While villain is likely to call with a number of draws that are behind, he is unlikely to make a big mistake by calling. If I shove villain will have to call 160 to win a pot of 335. He's getting more than 2:1 so he needs less than 33% equity. This means it will be correct for him to call with all flush draws or OESDs. Equity for his draws is best when he can guarantee he will see two cards. However, if villain misses his draw on the turn and hero shoves, villain makes a bigger equity mistake than calling the flop.
    - If hero shoves the flop, villain will most likely fold air hands or low-equity bluffs like bottom pair or gutshots. Calling allows villain to keep bluffing those hands on the turn which could lead to greater profit.

    Calling lets villain make a mistake of bluff shoving too often when he misses a draw or make a mistake calling his draws on the turn with insufficient odds. But it also allows hero to make a mistake of folding incorrectly when villain bluffs a scare card that doesn't actually improve his hand.
  • vikingxxivikingxxi Red Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
    I call and get it in on turn.. not folding any turn card after pot gets this big...<br /><br />*** Unknown response from http://78.47.96.11/api2.0. Error 2: Can't use string ("h"post_url":"http:\/\/forum.redc"...) as a HASH ref while "strict refs" in use at /usr/local/cleantalk/bin/moderate.pl line 1218.
    Antispam service cleantalk.org ***

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file